Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
111 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 108 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

- Line of strong to severe thunderstorms just ahead of a cold
  front will exit the area prior to sunrise. This line of storms
  could produce damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

- Strong winds will follow the front. Gale conditions are forecast
  to impact the coastal waters through the afternoon hours behind
  a strong cold front. Small Craft Advisories bookend the Gale
  conditions. A Wind Advisory is also in place for coastal
  locations and areas south of Lake Pontchartrain through this
  afternoon. And, if that's not enough the winds combined with
  low humidities this afternoon have led to issuance of a Red Flag
  Warning for elevated wildfire danger.

- There is increasing confidence that below freezing temperatures
  will be noted along and north of the I-12 corridor early Tuesday
  morning. A Freeze Watch is in effect for those areas.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 108 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Update to remove several counties/parishes from Tornado Watch 60,
and will likely be performing additional updates as line transits
the area. Will not update the AFD again unless there are changes
beyond clearing the watch until the 12z TAF package is issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Upper trough extended from Iowa to east Texas, with ridging along
the Pacific coast. A strong cold front was approaching McComb and
Baton Rouge at midnight CDT. A broken line of strong to severe
thunderstorms was just ahead of the front. Temperatures that were
in the lower and middle 70s will drop through the 50s in the wake
of the front overnight.

The daytime hours today will be characterized by windy
conditions, decreasing clouds and much cooler temperatures. High
temperatures that were in the 80s on Sunday will not get out of
the 50s today and Tuesday. Additionally, much drier air will be
moving in and have lowered dew points from NBM deterministic values
as they usually do not perform well in post-frontal situations.
Relative humidity values combined with windy conditions justify
the Red Flag Warning that was issued yesterday. For tonight, NBM
continues to track well above the globals for overnight lows, and
go a bit closer to NBM25 for the lows. Would note that the last
cold spell, the globals ended up being too cool, so won't jump
whole-heartedly onto the global numbers. Even the NBM forecast
lows are near or below the records for March 17th and 18th. Won't
change parameters of the Freeze Watch at this time, and assume
that day shift will upgrade to a warning with the midday/afternoon
package.

For Tuesday, very dry air remains in place, but wind speeds will
generally be below 10 mph, so don't anticipate needing Red Flag
Warnings on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Northwest upper flow continues through about Thursday before ridging
builds in from the west. Surface high pressure will be over the Gulf
for the 2nd half of the workweek through the weekend. Don't expect
any significant precipitation through the weekend.

Wednesday morning will still be chilly, and the Pearl and Pascagoula
River drainage basins could hit pretty close to freezing again.
Beyond that point, temperatures will moderate, returning to much
above normal levels for the weekend, around 80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Cold front moving through northwest sections of the area, with
KBTR and KMCB likely seeing the FROPA prior to the new package
actually going into effect. Current forecast timing will have the
front through all forecast terminals prior to 10z. MVFR ceilings
prevailing, but there will be the potential for IFR or lower
conditions with TSRA as they move through a terminal. Wind gusts
to 40 knots are likely with the TSRA, and KMCB saw a 38 knot gust
at 0520z. Gusty northwest winds, with gusts in excess of 30 knots
are likely at all terminals through at least late morning, with
MVFR ceilings improving to VFR.

Cloud cover likely to diminish by midday, and gusty winds should
diminish by sunset at all terminals except KNEW.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Cold front will move through most or all waters prior to sunrise. Will
maintain the previously issued headlines with conditions gradually
improving during the day on Tuesday. Beyond that point, don't see
any wind/wave issues returning for the remainder of the forecast
period. Fog doesn't appear to be much of a threat until perhaps
next weekend.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-065>067-071-076-
     079>086.

     Freeze Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for
     LAZ034>037-039-047-048-071-076-079>084.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ056>060-064>070-
     076>078-080-082-084-086>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Tuesday
     for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ530-532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for MSZ068>071.

     Freeze Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for
     MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Tuesday
     for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532-534-536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
242 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 12 SSW Mandeville       30.20N 90.12W
03/16/2026  M40 MPH          GMZ530             LA   Mesonet

            Mid point of the Causeway measured a wind
            gust of 40 mph.

&&

CAB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
257 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 12 SSW Mandeville       30.20N 90.12W
03/16/2026  M44 MPH          GMZ530             LA   Mesonet

            New wind gust up to 44 mph at the mid point
            of the Causeway.

&&

CAB

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