River Flood Warning 2, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
527 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 524 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

- A Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) of severe storms is ongoing for the
  whole area this morning, with damaging winds and tornadoes
  being the primary threats. This drops to a marginal risk at 6am
  Saturday. Please stay weather aware tomorrow and have multiple
  ways of receiving warnings.

- In addition to the severe weather threat, there is also a threat of
  flash flooding through Saturday morning. There is a Moderate
  Risk for excessive rainfall (Level 3 out of 4) for Walthall and
  Pike Counties with the remainder of the area in a slight risk. A
  Flood Watch remains through 9am Saturdayg from along I-59 and
  westward where we can expect widespread 2-4 inches with locally
  higher amounts above 6 inches.

- After the front passes on Saturday, gusty offshore winds will
  filter in behind it. Small craft advisories will likely be
  needed starting on Sunday, as the winds and waves will be
  dangerous for small vessels.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1011 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

The polar trough has combined with the subtropical trough which is
efficiently streaming deep moisture from the Pacific through the
south central CONUS then well into the NE Atlantic coast. The polar
trough has now shifted its strongest winds to the east side of the
trough which is beginning to make it progressive. There are still
several hours to go before the risk of severe wx lowers enough to
not worry about it. But as we move through the morning hours, this
will be the case and a line of broken sh/ts will be the result. This
is also why SPC is lowering the risk level across the area for Sat
morning after 6am. So this will be a slow progress toward
stability. The heavy rainfall threat will also slowly lower as we
move through the morning hours Sat with the last gasp being storms
along the frontal interface. The cold front will enter the CWA
around 8am Sat and exit land areas ~5pm Sat. Any rainfall left
behind the front will be light with no issues for strong or
severe. The front moving through during the day will give high
temps that will be cooler west and warmer east. But all areas will
fall to the 40s Sat night as winds should keep the area a bit
warmer than it would be without them.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday night)
Issued at 1011 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

By Sunday, temps will only climb into the mid to upper 50s, so a
chilly day in store. Winds will ease through the day Sunday and
decouple overnight Sun night into Monday morning. This will help
radiational cooling become maximized allowing temps to fall to the
lower 30s north to the low 40s south. Cold air will settle in for
Monday only allowing highs to reach the mid 50s. Mon night will
bring temps to the lower 30s again north and low 40s south. After
Monday, a slow warming trend will take place with no real issues
expected the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions prevail as a line of storms is moving
through our area. More rainfall is expected throught the daytime
hours as well. As a result, TEMPO groups and PROB30 groups are in
the forecast for the timing of these storms this morning, which
will cause lower ceilings and visibilities and MVFR to IFR
conditions. Once this frontal system pushes through late this
afternoon into the early evening, VFR conditions will return at
all area airports. Wind shifts greater than 30 degrees will be
expected at all area airports. MSW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1011 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Moderate onshore flow will continue through tonight until a cold
front moves through Saturday with a window of strong northerly winds
of 20-30kt, a small craft advisory will be hoisted starting 6pm Sat
ending 6am Monday. Storms will accompany the front as it moves
through late Sat and some of these could have strong rapid wind
increases with rapid directional changes. Since there have been
several days of onshore flow prior to the cold front, we will have a
well set up fetch out of the south. With winds quickly veering
around to the north-northwest immediately behind the cold front
there will be a window of confused seas. The greatest potential
appears to be in the outer waters (20-60nm) and west of the mouth of
the MS River. Winds will slowly lower through Tue while a surface
high moves into the northern gulf waters late Tue. A west wind will
begin as the high moves SE by Wednesday. West winds will rise ahead
of a reinforcing cold front moving through late Wed bringing winds
around to NW 20-25kt Wed night into Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  39  56  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  42  59  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  43  60  32  56 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  49  60  41  55 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  45  59  36  55 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  44  60  31  55 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ036-037-039-
     046>048-071-079-081-083-085.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-555-557.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
     for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Flood Watch until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ069>071-077-083.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-555-557.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
     for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...TE

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