Red Flag Warning 1, NWS New Orleans, LA

Ascension Parish, LA, Assumption Parish, LA, East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, East Feliciana Parish, LA, Iberville Parish, LA, Jefferson Parish, LA, Livingston Parish, LA, Orleans Parish, LA, Plaquemines Parish, LA, Pointe Coupee Parish, LA, Saint Bernard Parish, LA, Saint Helena Parish, LA, Saint James Parish, LA, Saint John the Baptist Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, West Baton Rouge Parish, LA, West Feliciana Parish, LA, Amite County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Jackson County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Pike County, MS, Walthall County, MS, Wilkinson County, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
604 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 600 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

- Warmer than normal temperatures will stick around south of the
  cold front today, with patchy dense fog this morning. The near
  shore shelf waters have a higher chance of dense fog this
  morning, so a Marine Dense Fog has been issued until 10am CST.

- The next substantial chance of rain will be this afternoon and
  evening as a cold front makes it through the area. Rain totals
  should remain fairly low most places and likely will not result
  in much, if any, drought relief.

- A significant cool down is forecast Sunday into the beginning of
  the next work week. The coldest mornings will be Monday and
  Tuesday morning, with potential for light freeze conditions
  across areas north of the I-10/12 corridor mainly Tuesday
  morning. Freeze warning could be needed given the recent warm
  spell with some plants coming out of their cool season dormancy.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Areas of patchy fog is likely to develop this morning as a slow
moving cold front remains draped across southern Mississippi with
moisture pooling out ahead of it. The fog should remain fairly
patchy as surface winds remain elevated this morning, but could be
more widespread along the immediate Gulf coast. We will likely
stay well above average temps-wise today south of the warm front
due to compressional warming. Max temps were actually blended
upwards with NBM50 to account for this which brings max temps
flirting with more daily records. Scattered storm development
seems likely along the front around 12-2pm as we reach peak
daytime heating. It looks like we'll have modest MLCAPE of 1500
j/kg coupled with 0-6km shear of 45-50kt, so any robust updraft
that forms will likely have mesocyclones. The hodograph profiles
suggest that the main threat for any strong/severe storm will be
hail as we will have weak low-level shear with efficient venting.
The forcing for stronger storms seems to generally be along and
east of the I-59 corridor, so that seems to be the most likely
place for severe hail this afternoon and evening.

The activity should push southward with the front as the upper-
level trough ejects across the northeast. Behind the front, we get
strong cold-air advection to bring low down below normal. This
cold air advection will stick around through the day on Sunday,
so highs were bumped down closer to NBM25 to account for that.
Also, the winds behind the front will be quite strong across the
southshore (in the 20-25mph range) due to the tightened pressure
gradient with the deepening low across the eastern seaboard. So,
a Wind Advisory may be needed if trends continue.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Strong cold air advection will continue Monday behind the front
and will keep temps below normal for both lows and highs. The
coldest morning will be Tuesday morning as the trailing surface
high filters across the area. We should get effective radiational
cooling on top of the cold airmass that was advected in, so expect
widespread freezing conditions along and north of the I-10
corridor. With this recent warm spell, freeze warnings will likely
be needed since plants have likely come out of dormancy.

After Tuesday, the previously mentioned high should slide east and
promote warm, moist air advection back into the area. This will
lead to a warming trend towards the end of the week where we will
be back above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Some IFR to MVFR ceilings continue to hang around at most
terminals. This will continue through around midday. As we warm up
towards the afternoon, conditions should improve. As a cold front
moves in, we will see convection fire this afternoon. This should
be fairly scattered in nature, but may cause brief drops in vis
and ceilings at any terminals that see a storm move through.
PROB30s are in place for all terminal except HUM. Convection
should be done by 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1041 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Moderate onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots will persist with patchy
dense fog each night/morning through Saturday. A strong cold front
will move through the coastal waters Saturday night into Sunday
morning with high pressure building in again behind it. The
combination of a tight pressure gradient and cold air advection will
cause winds to strengthen and turn offshore again Saturday evening.
Once hazardous conditions set in Saturday evening, Gale conditions
are expected. A Gale Watch is in effect for Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from Sunday
afternoon through Monday afternoon.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557.

     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for GMZ530-
     532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to noon CST Monday for
     GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557.

     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for GMZ532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to noon CST Monday for
     GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...JZ