Flash Flood Warning 89, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
832 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 827 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Extreme heat is expected this weekend and into next week. Heat
  advisories have been issued for heat index values of around 110
  degrees for today. Heat advisories may be re-issued over the
  weekend and into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 827 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Reviewed forecast grids regarding temperatures and heat threat for
tomorrow. Apparent Temperatures will reach into the 108-111 degree
range for a time in the afternoon across much of the area. Issued
a Heat Advisory for the entire CWA from noon to 6pm, although
highest Apparent Temps will occur in th early to mid-afternoon.
/Schlotz/

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Pop up thunderstorms across the area are a definite possibility
this evening and they may be marginally severe generating winds
over 60mph as a storm collapses.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Monday night)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Through Monday night, the forecast area will remain on the
northern periphery of a broad deep layer ridge centered over the
central and northern Gulf. The influence of this ridging will be
felt in two ways, overall lower rain chances each day and much
warmer temperatures. Going into the rain chances, there will be a
fairly defined north to south oriented gradient as stronger mid-
level capping aloft prohibits convective development for areas
mainly to the south of Lake Pontchartrain. The only chance for
these areas to see any additional rainfall in the coming days
looks to be on Saturday when an outflow driven convective complex
descends southward from the Lower Mississippi Valley. However, the
intensity of the convective complex in terms of rainfall coverage
will begin to wane as it moves into coastal Louisiana and the
offshore waters due to the significantly drier air aloft it will
encounter.

For areas north of the I-10/12 corridor, PWATS will be
closer to average through the weekend and a weaker mid-level cap
will allow for some modest MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/KG to develop
each afternoon. Any convective activity will develop late in the
afternoon and evening hours when the convective temperature in the
mid 90s is finally reached. This will be true for today, Saturday,
and Sunday with the highest rain chances occurring on Saturday
when a weak mid to upper level vort max riding along the northern
periphery of the ridge passes through the Lower Mississippi
Valley. The latest CAMS indicate that a mesoscale convective
system will develop over the ArkLaMiss region and then follow the
theta-e gradient south-southeast into the CWA by Saturday evening.
The biggest concern from the complex of storms will be
damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall falling on already
saturated soils, leading to flash flooding issues late Saturday.
Once the MCS dies off Saturday evening, conditions will begin to
trend much drier overall as the influence of the ridge grows.
Sunday will see scattered diurnally forced convection north of
I-10/12 that will occasionally produce a strong wind gust or
brief downpour, but overall the trend will be for weaker updrafts
and storms. By Monday, PWATS will fall below average across the
entire region and any convection will struggle to break the
increasingly strengthening mid-level capping inversion in place. A
largely dry forecast is in place for Monday.

The other issue of concern is the growing threat of an extended
period of extreme heat. Temperatures will easily climb into the
low to mid 90s each day and dewpoints will remain fairly high in
the upper 70s and lower 80s through Monday. These high dewpoints
will allow heat index values to climb to between 105 and 110 each
day through Monday. Although a heat advisory has not been issued
for tomorrow, there is a high likelihood that one will be issued
for Saturday with the overnight forecast package. HeatRisk will
also be in the moderate to major range each day and this indicates
an increased risk of heat illnesses for those conducting outdoor
activities.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Tuesday will see little overall change from the weekend with
continued hot temperatures and low rain chances as a broad deep
layer ridge remains in firm control of the Gulf South. Heat index
values will once again climb to between 105 and 110 and only some
isolated afternoon convection will develop as temperatures climb
into the low to mid 90s. Any convection will be most likely across
the northern third of the CWA where the mid-level cap will be the
weakest, although still quite strong.

Wednesday and Thursday will see the influence of the ridge begin
to decrease as a broad northern stream longwave trough axis digs
into the eastern half of the CONUS. This will help to flatten out
the ridge in the Gulf and reduce the strength of the mid-level
cap over the area. A north-south gradient of rain chances will
continue to remain in place, but overall convective coverage will
increase back to more typical levels for late June. Rain chances
will range from 20 to 30 percent south of New Orleans to 40 to 50
percent north of the I-10/12 corridor each day. The convection
will be very diurnal with coverage peaking in the afternoon hours
as highs climb into the lower 90s. Lingering mid-level dry air
entrainment into a few of the storms could lead to a few damaging
wind events associated with wet microbursts both days. The
slightly cooler temperatures should also help to push heat index
values back to around 105 degrees, or just below heat advisory
levels on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 827 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A few pop up thunderstorms are possible, bringing associated
decreasing VIS/CIG and increased winds. Outside of convective
concerns late tonight at MCB where some MVFR visibility impacts
and gusty winds could briefly occur, prevailing VFR conditions
will be the rule through the evening hours. Later tonight, between
10z and 13z, a brief period of low stratus could produce ceilings
at or below 1000 feet at MCB and possibly HDC as weak elevated
inversion forms. This inversion will quickly mix out after 13z
with prevailing VFR conditions returning through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A prevailing southerly flow will be in place through the middle of
next week as a broad surface high pressure system dominates the
Gulf.  Winds will generally range from 10 to 15 knots through the
period and seas will range from 2 to 4 feet.  Overall, no
significant impacts to maritime activities are anticipated through
the middle of next week.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from noon to 6 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from noon to 6 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...PG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
458 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

MSZ085-192215-
Northern Jackson MS-
458 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN JACKSON
COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM CDT
...

At 458 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hurley, or 15 miles northeast of Escatawpa, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hurley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3061 8853 3073 8850 3074 8842 3072 8841
      3057 8841
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 281DEG 17KT 3069 8843

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
545 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

LAZ064-070-077-078-192315-
Western Orleans LA-Upper St. Bernard LA-Eastern Orleans LA-
Lower St. Bernard LA-
545 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN ST.
BERNARD AND CENTRAL ORLEANS PARISHES THROUGH 615 PM CDT
...

At 545 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms capable of producing funnel clouds over Chalmette,
moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...If a funnel cloud briefly touches down, minor damage to
         outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds could knock down
         tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
New Orleans, East New Orleans, Chalmette, Arabi, Meraux, and
Lakefront Airport.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 237 and 249.
 Interstate 510 between mile markers 1 and 3.
 Interstate 610 near mile marker 4.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2995 9007 3005 9007 3006 9002 3008 9000
      3008 8967 3005 8969 3001 8970 3000 8982
      2996 8980 2998 8971 2995 8968 2992 8972
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 120DEG 11KT 2999 8996

FUNNEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
659 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

LAZ098-200030-
Upper St. Charles LA-
659 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ST.
CHARLES PARISH THROUGH 730 PM CDT
...

At 659 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing waterspouts over marine areas near New Sarpy, or
near Kenner, moving north at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Waterspouts and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
         hazardous waters. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs
         and blow around unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern St.
Charles Parish.

This includes Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 212 and
220.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3001 9036 3005 9043 3008 9041 3009 9041
      3009 9037 3007 9028 3000 9029
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 164DEG 5KT 3004 9034

WATERSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
737 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

LAZ098-099-200115-
Central St. Charles LA-Upper St. Charles LA-
737 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ST.
CHARLES PARISH THROUGH 815 PM CDT
...

At 736 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing waterspouts over marine areas near Norco, or
near Hahnville. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Waterspouts and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
         hazardous waters. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs
         and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Norco, Montz, Taft, and Killona.

This includes Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 212 and
218.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3001 9048 3002 9048 3003 9047 3003 9045
      3008 9041 3010 9042 3008 9030 3001 9033
      2999 9046
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 120DEG 2KT 3004 9036

WATERSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
807 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

LAZ083-084-200145-
Northern Livingston LA-Southern Livingston LA-
807 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LIVINGSTON
PARISH THROUGH 845 PM CDT
...

At 807 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Livingston, or 14 miles west of Hammond, moving
east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Denham Springs, Walker, Livingston, French Settlement, Albany, Port
Vincent, Springfield, and Killian.

This includes Interstate 12 between mile markers 12 and 34.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3065 9057 3049 9057 3047 9055 3044 9055
      3042 9053 3032 9053 3035 9090 3036 9091
      3050 9095
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 249DEG 9KT 3047 9070

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAB