Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
123 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1241 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

- Expect high rain chances through the next several days. 7 day
rainfall totals will range from 4 to 7 inches in the northwest to
less than an inch of much of coastal MS and extreme SELA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

The upper level pattern hasn't changed much lately. A cutoff low is
located over the western Atlantic east of Florida while broad scale
troughing encompasses nearly the entire CONUS except the
southeastern portion of the country. Both low level southeast flow
and mid level southwest flow continue to transport deep layer
moisture into the local region. Evidence of this is clearly shown
on the 12Z KLIX sounding, which had a PW of 2.07 inches (only
0.06 inches below the daily record value). This highlights just
how moist and summer-like the airmass has become across the
forecast area. Model soundings show little change through the
afternoon and evening hours, with PW values generally remaining
between 2.0 and 2.2 inches.

Mid level lapse rates and deep layer shear remain too weak to
support an organized severe weather threat. However, storms will
still be capable of producing very heavy rainfall rates given the
deep moisture profile and warm cloud depths in place. Localized
hourly rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour will be possible
within the strongest cores this afternoon and evening. The weak
steering flow regime, combined with Corfidi vectors generally below
20 knots, may allow for slow moving or occasionally backbuilding
convection, especially near boundary interactions. This raises
concern for localized training of storms and isolated flash
flooding, particularly in urban and poor drainage areas.

Going into the overnight period, confidence remains lower regarding
the evolution of any additional convective rounds tied to subtle
impulses moving through the broad trough. CAM guidance remains split
between sparse overnight showers versus another organized cluster of
storms capable of producing a localized flash flooding threat.

Generally speaking, Friday looks like a similar pattern with
another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
capable of producing torrential rainfall and localized flooding
impacts. Warm and humid conditions combined with considerable
cloud cover should continue to limit overnight cooling. It will
certainly feel like early summer as lows struggle to fall below
the lower to middle 70s. A quick look at record warm low
temperatures shows forecast lows may approach records at several
locations across the CWA.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

An unsettled and moisture rich pattern will persist through much of
the extended forecast period as broad ridging remains suppressed to
the south and east while weak troughing lingers across the entire
region. Daily rounds of predominately (but not definite) diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon through
the weekend and into\ early next week.

Precipitable water values generally between 1.8 and 2.2 inches will
continue to support efficient warm rain processes and locally heavy
rainfall with any thunderstorms that develop. Rainfall coverage may
fluctuate somewhat day to day depending on subtle mesoscale
boundaries, convective overturning from prior day activity, and
shortwaves passing through the base of the broad scale trough... but
overall confidence remains high in continued high daily POPs. High
temperatures will remain near climatological normals but lows above
normal due to increased cloud cover and precipitation coverage.

Although widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time,
isolated nuisance flooding and localized flash flooding issues will
remain possible each day, especially in urban areas and locations
that receive repeated rounds of convection.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Showers and storms have been impacting terminals off/on all
morning long. Threat of TSRA may wane some this afternoon and
evening but potential exists for new development during the
overnight period. Main impacts will be torrential rainfall which
lower visibilities and lightning strikes. Will handle that
potential with TEMPO and PROB30 groups.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Persistent onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots will remain in place
through this with high pressure generally centered east of the local
coastal waters. Seas will remain well below any hazardous limits at
1 to 3 feet through this period. As we move into the back half of
the week, we will see a weak cold front drift south towards the
coast and stall along the northern Gulf Coast. That'll lead to both
weaker winds overall as well as north or south winds depending on
coastal zone's location in related to the boundary. A stronger upper
level trough moves through the region Saturday morning. Expect to
see at least Exercise Caution, possibly low in Small Craft Advisory,
conditions behind this front.

MEFFER
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
523 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

MSZ084-085-212315-
Northern Jackson MS-Northern Harrison MS-
523 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN HARRISON
AND NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT
...

At 522 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms capable of producing funnel clouds near Saucier, or 13
miles south of Wiggins, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...If a funnel cloud briefly touches down, minor damage to
         outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds could knock down
         tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Saucier.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors or to safe harbor and report
your sighting to the National Weather Service.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in New Orleans.

&&

LAT...LON 3061 8916 3068 8919 3068 8889 3073 8889
      3074 8884 3073 8881 3063 8876
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 245DEG 12KT 3066 8909

FUNNEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
524 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

LAZ076-079-080-MSZ083-086-212315-
Southeast St. Tammany LA-Northern St. Tammany LA-
Southwestern St. Tammany LA-Northern Hancock MS-Southern Hancock MS-
524 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ST.
TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND HANCOCK COUNTIES THROUGH
615 PM CDT
...

At 524 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms capable of producing funnel clouds along a line
extending from 10 miles north of Kiln to near Slidell. Movement was
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...If a funnel cloud briefly touches down, minor damage to
         outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds could knock down
         tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Slidell, Bay St. Louis, Waveland, Diamondhead, Eden Isle, Pearl
River, Kiln, Pearlington, Shoreline Park, and Stennis Space Center.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 259 and 273.
 Interstate 10 in Mississippi between mile markers 1 and 18.
 Interstate 12 between mile markers 81 and 84.
 Interstate 59 in Louisiana between mile markers 1 and 9.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors or to safe harbor and report
your sighting to the National Weather Service.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in New Orleans.

&&

LAT...LON 3064 8934 3038 8934 3036 8933 3024 8946
      3016 8977 3023 8988 3040 8978 3046 8968
      3046 8965 3048 8964 3052 8958 3052 8955
      3054 8954 3061 8943
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 245DEG 21KT 3056 8938 3026 8972

FUNNEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
551 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

LAZ035-MSZ068-212330-
West Feliciana LA-Wilkinson MS-
551 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WEST
FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL WILKINSON
COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CDT
...

At 551 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms capable of producing funnel clouds along a line
extending from 6 miles southeast of Fort Adams to 7 miles west of
Wakefield. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...If a funnel cloud briefly touches down, minor damage to
         outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds could knock down
         tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Woodville and Dolorosa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors or to safe harbor and report
your sighting to the National Weather Service.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in New Orleans.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 9121 3134 9115 3132 9112 3132 9110
      3099 9123 3087 9150 3105 9153 3134 9134
      3136 9128 3137 9127 3136 9125 3137 9122
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 228DEG 19KT 3103 9147 3092 9147

FUNNEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
555 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

MSZ083-084-086-087-212345-
Southern Harrison MS-Northern Hancock MS-Southern Hancock MS-
Northern Harrison MS-
555 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN HARRISON
AND NORTHEASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM CDT
...

At 555 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms capable of producing funnel clouds along a line
extending from 9 miles southwest of Saucier to 6 miles northeast of
Diamondhead. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...If a funnel cloud briefly touches down, minor damage to
         outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds could knock down
         tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gulfport, Diamondhead, Saucier, and Lyman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors or to safe harbor and report
your sighting to the National Weather Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in New Orleans.

&&

LAT...LON 3043 8912 3040 8938 3064 8934 3065 8932
      3065 8925 3068 8924 3067 8902
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 242DEG 17KT 3057 8929 3046 8930

FUNNEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TJS