Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
150 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 150 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

- Moderate to High confidence in showers and thunderstorms this
  afternoon and tonight, with localized flooding and a few strong
  to severe storms possible.

- Finally start to dry out Tuesday as ridging builds into the
  area. Expect temperatures to increase again by mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Currently monitoring the convective complex moving over the
southeast LA Coast including portions of the southshore. This has
dropped an inch or two of rain already across the immediate coast
with some localized minor flooding taking shape in Grand Isle.
This is the first area of precip to monitor. The second is
forecast to develop in a few hours along the I10/12 corridor. This
will be the best chance for both an isolated severe storm or two
and hydro concerns. It appears New Orleans has escaped the
heaviest rain, which is good to avoid a hydro primer. However, if
a line of convection sets up and sits over town, hydro issues will
quickly develop with higher rates. Baton Rouge, same can be said
there especially considering they have been the "big winner" in
terms of rainfall totals over the last week or so. Additionally,
any additional heavy rainfall may have impact on local rivers as
well. As for watch headlines...uncertainty in amounts and
locations will preclude the issuance. However, WPC is becoming a
bit more confident upgrading the marginal ERO to a slight with a
slightly higher confidence in flash flooding along the I10
corridor.

As the trough upstream finally begins to spread east over the
region, the surface front that is currently stalled near BTR to
MCB will finally push through the region, which will clear most of
the precip out of the area. The GFS wants to hang onto clouds and
maybe precip a bit longer on Tuesday. Went with the cloudier
solution, but with much drier air moving into the region as the
upper levels transition to a dry northwest flow, think precip will
be a bit harder to materialize.

Upper heights begin to increase going into Tuesday and especially
Wednesday as a ridge builds over Texas. This will help promote a
warming trend...not to mention the lower rain chances will also
allow us to warm during the day. Additionally, surface winds will
drop as high pressure moves into the region. Finally, after
several active days in the last week, most of the short term
beyond the near term will be dry and rather benign outside of
warmer temperatures during the afternoon hours. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Sunday night)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

The long term suggests an overall pattern change with upper level
flow becoming more zonal and as surface high pressure spreads east
of the region, expect a moderate return flow to develop going into
the weekend. This will continue to promote a warming and more
humid trend going into the weekend. Globals are mostly dry with
little QPF signal, but I cannot rule out a stray shower within the
moderate onshore flow. Any rogue shower, however, should be the
exception rather than the rule and mostly be confined to the
coastal locations where frictional convergence is maximized.
Otherwise, warmer conditions will continue into the start of next
week. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

SHRA and TSRAs are increasing on the southshore this afternoon.
Additional convection will develop along the I10/12 corridor a bit
later than earlier thought...and hang around a bit later.
With convection expect lower VIS/CIGs MVFR or IFR at times.
Otherwise, MVFR conditions once the front passes and
rain/convection moves out. Only late in the period will we begin
to see some gradual improvement in MVFR CIGs. Otherwise, winds
will transitions fully to a northerly or northeasterly direction
behind the front. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

South to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots will persist overnight.
Anticipating at least one or two more rounds of storms through this
afternoon and into tonight with some strong to severe storms
possible across marine waters. Main threats will be wind gusts
greater than 34 knots and waterspouts. A frontal boundary will move
into the waters Monday night, bringing moderate offshore winds
through Tuesday before turning onshore again. Otherwise, marine
conditions through the rest of the workweek appear to remain rather
benign. (Frye)

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
247 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

LAZ037-071-MSZ069-070-112015-
St. Helena LA-Northern Tangipahoa LA-Pike MS-Amite MS-
247 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ST.
HELENA AND NORTHWESTERN TANGIPAHOA PARISHES, SOUTHWESTERN PIKE AND
SOUTHEASTERN AMITE COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM CDT
...

At 247 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Osyka, or 14 miles south of Mccomb, moving west at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Greensburg, Magnolia, Kentwood, Osyka, Gillsburg, and Easleyville.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 55 in Louisiana between mile markers 60 and 66.
 Interstate 55 in Mississippi between mile markers 1 and 9.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3114 9047 3097 9039 3081 9070 3107 9082
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 068DEG 16KT 3103 9051

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MEFFER