Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
145 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

- Warm with showers and thunderstorms today into Sunday. There is
  the potential for severe weather as well as locally heavy
  rainfall ahead of a cold frontal passage that occurs on Sunday.

- Winds will remain elevated for marine areas today. Northerly
  winds behind a cold front on Sunday have necessitated Small
  Craft Advisories beginning Sunday evening, which could continue
  through early next week.

- A prolonged period of easterly winds next week could increase the
  coastal flood threat on east facing shorelines by mid week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Update for the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for all coastal
waters Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Upper ridging was over both the Atlantic and Pacific Coasts this
morning. An upper low was over Minnesota with a trough southward
into Arkansas and eastern Texas. At the surface, the Bermuda high
extended westward across the eastern Gulf. Low pressure was over
Wisconsin with a frontal boundary to near St. Louis and the Dallas-
Fort Worth area.

This morning's LIX upper air sounding had a precipitable water value
between the 75th and 90th percentile climatologically (1.35 inches).
Mostly cloudy skies were occurring across the area, with
temperatures mainly mid 70s to lower 80s and dew points around 70.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were noted on radar
from about Interstate 55 westward at 1 PM CDT.

Moisture levels are increasing today to 1.4 to 1.6 inches, which
is near or exceeding the 90th percentile. The heavy rain threat
today should mainly be across the western half of the area, but
can't be entirely ruled out anywhere. CAPE values are expected to
be in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, but shear is generally going to
be comparatively weak, 20-25 knots. As we've seen the last few
days, severe weather can't entirely be ruled out. The main threat
will be just ahead of the cold front, which should move through
the area late tonight or Sunday morning. Some rain, mainly light,
could linger behind the front during the day Sunday, and possibly
into the evening over coastal areas. While most areas shouldn't
see more than an inch or two of rain with this system, there is at
least a small threat that boundary mergers could produce a few
spots of locally heavy rain where 2 to 4 inches of rain or more
could occur. If that happens over an urban area, it will cause
problems.

Temperatures ahead of the front will remain above normal today,
reaching into the 80s for much of the area away from the coast.
Overnight lows tonight will be close to 70 ahead of the front, while
areas behind the front will be closer to 60. Highs tomorrow will
likely be near 70 or even upper 60s northwest and mid 70s east. Lows
Sunday night are expected in the 40s northwest and 50s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

The cold front will remain near or offshore of the lower portions of
the southeast Louisiana coastal parishes on Monday. That should
limit any rainfall to those lower portions of the coastal parishes.
Tuesday should be dry across the entire area, although clouds could
linger along the coast. A southern stream shortwave will approach
the area on Wednesday, with some question how far north to spread
precipitation back into the area. Model solutions have flipped from
yesterday, when the ECMWF was pushing rain back into the area, now
it's the GFS with that solution. High pressure tries to build back
into the area for next weekend.

Monday and Monday night will remain on the cool side before
temperatures return to near or above normal levels. There's much
less of a spread in guidance temperatures than what there has been
over the last several days, giving more confidence in the NBM
solutions.

With a prolonged period of easterly winds forecast next week, that
would increase the possibility of coastal flooding on east facing
shorelines, possibly as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

MVFR to VFR cigs across the terminals. Threat of TSRA will increase
this afternoon, and likely to be impacting KBTR as the forecast goes
into effect. TSRA threat will spread eastward during the
afternoon, and continue overnight with potential IFR or lower
conditions. General MVFR conditions expected overnight, becoming
IFR by sunrise at most terminals. Cold front should move through
most or all terminals prior to sunrise Sunday, but low conditions
(primarily ceilings) could linger through at least midday Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A persistent southeast wind around 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet
will remain over the coastal waters ahead of the approaching
front. Behind the front, north to northeast winds will increase
to 20 to 25 knots for most waters, and Small Craft Advisories
will be in effect Sunday night and Monday. The current wind
forecast would indicate hazardous marine conditions for most or
all of the workweek next week, as high pressure becomes anchored
to our northeast. With a prolonged period of easterly winds
forecast next week, that would increase the possibility of coastal
flooding on east facing shorelines, possibly as soon as Tuesday
or Wednesday.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for
     GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for
     GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE/UPDATE...RW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
310 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

LAZ035-036-MSZ068-069-042100-
East Feliciana LA-West Feliciana LA-Wilkinson MS-Amite MS-
310 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WEST
FELICIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL EAST FELICIANA PARISHES, WILKINSON AND
NORTHWESTERN AMITE COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM CDT
...

At 310 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Woodville, or 15 miles north of Jackson, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Centreville, Woodville, Gloster, Norwood, Dolorosa, and Crosby.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 9121 3134 9115 3132 9112 3134 9106
      3133 9103 3135 9102 3133 9099 3135 9098
      3134 9083 3092 9118 3097 9132 3106 9142
      3134 9135 3137 9122
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 222DEG 13KT 3105 9129

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HRL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
405 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

LAZ035-036-MSZ068-069-042145-
East Feliciana LA-West Feliciana LA-Wilkinson MS-Amite MS-
405 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WEST
FELICIANA AND NORTHWESTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISHES, SOUTHEASTERN
WILKINSON AND SOUTHWESTERN AMITE COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM CDT
...

At 405 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Wakefield, or 8 miles northwest of Jackson, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Centreville, Woodville, Gloster, Wilson, Norwood, Wakefield,
and Spillman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3077 9128 3086 9145 3128 9124 3113 9081
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 215DEG 12KT 3091 9132

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HRL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
418 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

LAZ058-081>084-086-042200-
Central Tangipahoa LA-Northern Livingston LA-Lower Tangipahoa LA-
Southern Livingston LA-St. John The Baptist LA-Eastern Ascension LA-
418 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN ST. JOHN
THE BAPTIST, EASTERN LIVINGSTON AND SOUTHWESTERN TANGIPAHOA PARISHES
THROUGH 500 PM CDT
...

At 418 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Whitehall, or 17 miles north of Reserve, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hammond, Ponchatoula, Albany, Springfield, Whitehall, and Killian.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 12 between mile markers 27 and 43.
 Interstate 55 in Louisiana between mile markers 24 and 33.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3047 9039 3029 9051 3028 9055 3025 9056
      3023 9055 3018 9058 3028 9078 3060 9064
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 207DEG 16KT 3031 9065

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HRL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
505 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

LAZ035-036-MSZ068-069-042245-
East Feliciana LA-West Feliciana LA-Wilkinson MS-Amite MS-
505 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WEST
FELICIANA AND NORTHWESTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISHES, EASTERN WILKINSON
AND SOUTHWESTERN AMITE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT
...

At 504 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wakefield, or near Jackson, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Centreville, Woodville, Gloster, Wilson, Norwood, Wakefield,
and Spillman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3075 9118 3084 9142 3100 9146 3133 9121
      3112 9076
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 214DEG 19KT 3086 9129

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HRL