Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
528 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

...NEW AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

- Temperatures will remain around 10-15 degrees above normal into
  the middle of next week. The hottest days appear to be Today,
  Tuesday, and Wednesday. Highs for most areas expected to
  approach or surpass record highs, along with the potential for
  record warm lows for some locations.

- Showers and storms will be possible this afternoon into Sunday.
  A severe storm or two capable of damaging winds, hail up to 1",
  locally heavy rainfall, and a tornado cannot be ruled out
  especially in northwestern areas. Widespread showers and storms
  in association with a frontal boundary which could lead to
  flooding of poor drainage and urban areas.

- Dense fog of less than 1 nautical mile of visibility is possible
  in the cooler shelf waters of the Mississippi Coast late tonight.
  Dense fog cannot be ruled out for immediate coastal areas near
  the cooler shelf waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Ridging over the eastern Gulf and western Atlantic. Upper trough
from Wisconsin to near San Diego, with the main impulses over Iowa
and Baja California. At the surface, high pressure extended from
near Bermuda across most of the northern Gulf. Low pressure was over
Wisconsin with a cold front to another low center over southern
Missouri, then southwestward into west Texas. A line of showers and
thunderstorms, a few severe, was ahead of the cold front from West
Tennessee into central Texas. Locally, skies were mostly cloudy
across much of the area, with noon CST temperatures ranging from
the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dew points were generally around 70
degrees.

The early morning LIX sounding showed an uncapped and unstable
airmass, with precipitable water value of 1.36 inches. CAPE values
were in excess of 2000 J/kg, and downdraft CAPE around 1000 J/kg. At
this point, shear was very limited.

Much of the afternoon will see scattered showers and perhaps a
rumble or two of thunder. The main threat of convection will
shift southeastward with the frontal boundary tonight. Main
concerns will be hail and wind, but the tornado threat is non-
zero. Heavy rain could produce a quick 1-2 inches of rainfall, but
unless it falls in a very short time, widespread problems aren't
anticipated through sunrise Sunday.

Most of the mesoscale modeling indicates that the overnight round of
convection will be offshore by 12z Sunday. However, there are a
couple of solutions that reinvigorate convection along Interstate 10
to our west Sunday morning. While this wouldn't be expected to be a
severe weather threat, it could raise some issues regarding rainfall
if we get another 1-2 inches of rain on top of the overnight rain.
Any rain should end prior to sunset Sunday.

Much above normal temperatures will continue through the remainder
of the weekend. At first glance, forecast lows would appear too
cool tonight, but with convection expected to move through the
area overnight, will assume that slightly drier air mixes down
behind the convection. Some concern about fog development
overnight if convection is slow to arrive. At this point, won't
rule out fog, but confidence not high enough for advisories.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Upper ridging will build back over the area for the early part of
the workweek. Could be scattered showers Monday, but Tuesday
looks dry. An upper trough passage Wednesday or Wednesday night
will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area
at that point, and we'll have to monitor for an additional threat
of severe weather/heavy rainfall. That system will bring a brief
period of cooler air to the area, which will take high
temperatures back to around normal, closer to 70 degrees. There
will be at least one much cooler night (Thursday night) where much
of the area will see lows in the 40s. By next Saturday, highs are
likely to be pushing 80 degrees again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

VIS and CIG reductions (IFR/MVFR) will be likely across the
region tonight through Sunday morning as showers and thunderstorms
develop and move through the region. Convection will not be
constant, but intermittent SHRAs and TSs will be likely. Winds
around convection will be a bit erratic as well, but generally a
southerly flow outside of convection will continue. Additional
showers will be possible Sunday afternoon and early evening, but
at this juncture these will be more scattered in nature. Finally,
most terminals will improve as this cycle ends with VFR
conditions developing at or just after 09/00z. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Onshore southeasterly flow will continue through the weekend
averaging generally around 10 to 15 knots or so. Conditions will
remain favorable for areas of coastal fog for nearshore waters on
Sunday morning particularly for the Mississippi Coast, but concerns
with timing of approaching thunderstorms limits confidence in fog
development enough to forego advisory issuance for now. Otherwise,
daily isolated to scattered shower/storm chances will remain
possible each day closer to nearshore areas, with a greater risk of
thunderstorm impacts to the marine waters on Sunday into Monday.
Onshore southeasterly flow is expected to persist through atleast
the middle of the new workweek next week.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RW