Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1231 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another wave of thunderstorms expected this afternoon with storms
ending around sunset.

- Areas of fog are expected early Sunday morning especially in areas
that see significant rainfall.

- Scattered afternoon thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon with
  storms continuing overnight into Monday morning as a weak cold
  front moves through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

A wave of precipitation associated with an upper level
disturbance continues to produce slow moving heavy rain across much
of lower acadiana early this afternoon. High res guidance has been
consistent in developing an additional wave of convection this
afternoon which will generally move west to east across the region.
As has been the case over the last couple of days, this convection
will be capable of heavy rainfall that will have the potential to
create or exacerbate flash flooding. WPC has increased their day one
excessive rainfall outlook to a slight risk across nearly all of
south and central Louisiana and maintained a marginal risk across
southeast Texas which has seen significantly less recent rain. In
addition to the flood risk, a few storms will have the potential to
become strong to severe with hail and damaging winds being the
biggest threats (the environment is not particularly favorable for
tornadoes).

Precipitation is expected to come to an end around or shortly after
sunset this evening. While skies will remain overcast, winds are
expected to calm and with the ground saturated in many spots from
today's rains, areas of dense fog are once again expected to develop
early Sunday morning.

Another round of convection is expected Sunday afternoon. This
activity will initially be diurnally driven, but will eventually
come under the influence of an approaching cold front that will push
through the region late Sunday night into Monday morning. Guidance
has backed off of PoPs Sunday afternoon compared to this time
yesterday although storms will still be capable of heavy rain.
Convection is expected to increase late Sunday night into early
Monday with the approach and passage of the front with activity
coming to an end from north to south following the fropa.

A brief period of cooler and drier air will stream into the region
in the wake of the front Monday and Tuesday with the coolest
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s occurring Tuesday
morning. Southerly flow and warming temperatures will prevail
Wednesday through the end of next week with afternoon highs in the
mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s to near 70.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and
move from west to east across the region through approximately 01Z.
MVFR ceilings will prevail away from storms while falling to IFR
near convection. Away from storms, light, variable winds will
prevail through the evening. Nearly calm winds overnight will allow
areas of potentially dense fog to develop between 08 and 14Z Sunday.
A few thunderstorms may redevelop near the end of the period, but
the majority of these will be later in the day Sunday.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue over the
coastal waters and nearshore lakes and bays this afternoon before
coming to an end around sunset this evening. Light onshore flow will
prevail today into Sunday. Another round of thunderstorms are
expected Sunday evening into Monday morning as a cold front pushes
offshore. Breezy offshore flow will develop in the wake of the front
Monday and continue through Wednesday before turning back onshore
Wednesday night through the rest of the week. Seas will remain in
the 1-3 foot range through the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue this
afternoon before coming to an end around sunset this evening.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon
through early Monday morning with the approach and passage of a weak
cold front. Somewhat cooler, drier air will filter into the region
on light northerly winds Monday. This will drop afternoon RH values
into the 40-50% range both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.
Southerly winds return Wednesday night through the end of the week
increasing atmospheric moisture.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

In a quick turn of precipitable fortune the climate site
at Lafayette has now reached 0.06 inches above normal precipitation
year to date not including precipitation that has occurred this
morning and additional rain expected later today. The four other
climate sites (LCH, BPT, AEX and ARA) remain between 3 and 7 inches
below normal year to date with LCH being the driest.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
316 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     Flash Flood      2 ENE Milton            30.12N 92.03W
05/09/2026                   Lafayette          LA   Public

            Reports of water over Verot School Rd. The
            nearby coulee has come out of its banks.

&&

MC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
425 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

LAZ027-TXZ260-092200-
Vernon LA-Northern Newton TX-
425 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN VERNON PARISH IN
WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND NORTHEASTERN NEWTON COUNTIES THROUGH 500
PM CDT...

At 424 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Burkeville, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Burkeville, Burr Ferry, Mayflower, Stringtown, Wiergate, and Evans.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3107 9341 3087 9347 3086 9348 3088 9354
      3087 9356 3085 9356 3085 9357 3084 9356
      3092 9379 3110 9374
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 283DEG 14KT 3100 9369

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kowalski

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
452 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

TXZ516-615-616-092215-
Northern Orange TX-Lower Jefferson TX-Southern Orange TX-
452 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND
ORANGE COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM CDT...

At 452 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rose City, or over Vidor, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Nederland, Port Neches, Vidor, Bridge
City, West Orange, Rose City, Pine Forest, Pinehurst, and
Orangefield.

This includes Interstate 10 in Texas between mile markers 878 and
859.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3018 9403 3019 9372 3000 9377 2999 9379
      2998 9378 2993 9379 3003 9408
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 277DEG 12KT 3013 9405

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kowalski

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