Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1202 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low relative humidity along with underlying dry fuels will cause
  the fire danger to increase again today, especially across
  coastal SETX, SWLA, and parts of CenLA.

- Much warmer conditions return from the middle of the next work
  week into the rest of the long term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Cool temperatures and calm winds are ongoing across the forecast
area tonight as surface high pressure finally settles over the
northern Gulf Coast. Temperatures will fall to near or below
freezing for most of the region as we approach sunrise, the last bit
of cool weather before a steady warming trend commences later today.
Surface high pressure will meander around the northern Gulf Coast
throughout much of today, eventually shifting towards FL by this
evening. At the same time aloft, ongoing NWrly flow overhead will
gradually transition to a more zonal flow by this evening. As a
result, moisture begins to slowly return to the region through the
day, with dewpoints rebounding in the 40-50 degree range by sunset
this evening. Overnight, moisture return further ramps up as onshore
surface winds begin to strengthen, keeping morning lows in the low
to mid 50s.

Onshore flow at the surface and zonal flow aloft continue through
the remainder of the short term, allowing a warming and moistening
trend to continue to prevail. By Thurs afternoon, PWATs are
forecasted to increase to around the 90th percentile, ahead of an
approaching cool front that will arrive Thurs evening/night. As this
boundary draws closer, rain chances return to the forecast Thurs
afternoon through Thurs night, particularly across our LA parishes
with minimal rain chances in SE TX. A few thunderstorms are possible
with this convection, but for the most part it should be mainly
light to moderate rainfall that will continue into the early
morning hours of Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

By Friday morning a cool front will be to our east with weak high
pressure draped across the Eastern CONUS in its wake. A shot of
shallow dry air will be filtering into the forecast area throughout
early Friday in its wake, knocking dewpoints down into the 50s
Friday through the weekend. While this airmass won't be nearly as
dry as what we've seen the last few days it will be enough to keep
any convection at bay throughout the remainder of the long term
period. This airmass however, will not bring any cooler air, with
daytime highs expected to rise into the mid 70s to near 80 degrees
throughout the entire long term period. Thankfully this won't be
accompanied by oppressive humidity, but it will still be rather warm
and unseasonable as we move into early March.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Calm winds overnight will slowly increase post-sunrise through the
late morning, while turning due south. By the afternoon, onshore
flow will become gusty once again, with frequent gusts around 20kts
continuing until sunset this evening. Otherwise, only a few high
clouds expected as VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Low water conditions are again likely through the next few hours as
we approach sunrise, particularly across the LA coast, with
conditions improving around 12Z. Light east winds turn more SE to S
post sunrise today, as high pressure begins to slide east. Later
this afternoon into tonight, southerly winds begin to strengthen,
with frequent gusts around 20-25 kts expected. Onshore flow remains
breezy until the passage of another front late Thurs/early Fri.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Today will bring a transition from very dry conditions towards a
warmer and more humid airmass that will begin to filter into the
region late today into tonight. Until then, dry air will still
linger, though not quite as dry as the last couple of days, with
minRH values in the upper teens to mid 30s this afternoon. Return
flow will allow moisture to steadily increase this evening into
tonight. While conditions will be improving today, a Fire Danger
Statement is once again in effect due to ongoing fire concerns.
Warmer and more humid conditions can be expected tomorrow through
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  50  75  61 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  65  55  73  64 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  63  52  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  68  56  76  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ432-
     435-436.

&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17