Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
639 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unseasonably warm and moist air mass will continue over the
  forecast area through Saturday morning along with sea fog.

- A cold front is expected to move across Saturday afternoon with
  a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms.

- A Canadian air mass will settle in to end the weekend into early
  next week to bring much cooler conditions with the potential for
  a light freeze on Monday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

A cool front is currently nearly stationary across central
Louisiana. North of this front dew points are in the 40s and to the
south they are in the upper 60s to low 70s. Fog is noted in the
coastal waters, however it has been slow to make the push inland as
it is lifting into low clouds across the south.

As the next weak disturbance crosses late tonight and tomorrow some
showers and possibly a thunderstorm can be expected along the front
as it gets more of a push to the south. Rainfall amounts do not look
that great to help with the ongoing drought situation with amounts
two tenths of an inch or less expected.

As the Canadian high settles in on Sunday gusty winds and much lower
humidities will increase the fire danger especially across the

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

The cold Canadian air mass will settle in the forecast area through
early Tuesday. There is a chance of light freeze for Monday night
into Tuesday morning for locations north of the I-10 corridor.
Latest NBM probabilities show between a 20 and 80 percent chance of
below freezing temperatures during that time period for locations
north of the I-10 corridor, especially in Central Louisiana into
portions of Acadiana.

A warm up will begin by Wednesday as high pressure moves off to the
east and south winds off the Gulf begin.

The next chance for rain will be late Thursday into early Friday
with a weak frontal boundary.&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

IFR/LIFR ceilings prevail tonight at the southern terminals with
light south winds. Fog is also possible through sunrise but is lower
confidence, with BPT most likely to see impacts from dense fog. AEX
is to the north of a stalled surface boundary and can expect light
NE winds through the night with MVFR to IFR ceilings. A cold front
will cross the area during the day Saturday, bringing a wave of
isolated rain showers and shifting winds to the NW. Clouds gradually
clear behind the front with all sites likely VFR by sunset. Winds
increase in the evening hours with gusts over 20 kt possible across

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Elevated winds have largely diminished fog across the region.
However, where VIS is impacted, expect an imrovement in these
conditions in the next hour or two with sunrise.

Winds will be variable this morning before becoming north-
northwesterly with a cold front passage. Scattered showers and
maybe an isolated thunderstorm will be possible from this morning
to the early afternoon.

NNW winds will strengthen with strong gusts and bring cooler and
drier air into the region lifting ceilings by the end of the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  40  59  33 /  30  10   0   0
LCH  78  44  61  38 /  40  10   0   0
LFT  79  43  58  35 /  40  10   0   0
BPT  80  45  63  38 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LAZ073-074-
     152-241-242-252>254.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ615-616.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ430-432-435-436-
     450-452-455.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday
     for GMZ430-432-435-436.

     Gale Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for
     GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...11