Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
202 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level trough and weak surface boundary will meet up
  with a very moist and tropical like air mass to produce
  widespread shower and thunderstorm activity from Sunday through
  Tuesday.

- The storms that develop will produce high rain rates in a short period
  of time that bring the potential for excessive rainfall and
  flooding, especially on Monday when a Slight Risk (level 2 out
  of 4) Potential is outlined.

- Rain chances are expected to decrease late in the week as an
  upper level high builds in. Typical summertime heat can be
  expected with afternoon max apparent temperatures between 100
  and 107 degrees from Wednesday to Friday with the heat risk at
  the moderate level (2 out of 4.)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Latest upper air analysis shows 50H height falls across the region
as water vapor shows an upper level ridge breaking down and a mid
level pushing south toward the region. GOES-PWAT indicate a moist
air mass in place with values above 2 inches and near or above
the 90th percentile of climo. The result has been a good coverage
of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The main concern will
be torrential downpours, brief gusty winds, and frequent cloud to
ground lightning.

The showers and thunderstorms are expected to diminish after sunset.
However, with a very moist air mass in place, some nocturnal shower
activity is depicted along the coast by sunrise.

The weakness in the Sub-tropical upper level ridge is expected to
increase as a mid level short wave deepens over the region. This
feature will bring a weak surface frontal boundary into region
stalling near the ArkLaTex across northern Louisiana into central
Mississippi. Meanwhile, trajectories will bring tropical like
moisture up from southern Gulf and into the forecast area that will
linger through Tuesday. The result will be high rain chances each
day with activity beginning in the morning, with the best coverage
during the afternoon hours.

There will be a potential for heavy rainfall each day from Sunday to
Tuesday as the precipitable water will be above the 90th percentile
and mean layer relative humidity from 100H-50H will be above 70
percent. Forecast rainfall totals are expected to average between
1.5 and 3.5 inches, while the 90th percentile or the highest
reasonable rainfall amounts are in the 4 to 6 inch range.

Monday looks like the potential for excessive rainfall and the risk
for flooding will be at its greatest during this episode.
Precipitable water will be over 2.25 inches with with mean layer
relative humidity over 90 percent which will bring about high
precipitation efficiency. Also, warm cloud layer is projected at 15k
feet or higher that will make for warm rain processes to also
occur. A vort max is also noted to be moving across during Monday,
Therefore, expect shower and thunderstorm activity to have high
rain rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour. With flow ahead of the
boundary becoming parallel to the 85H-70H theta-e ridge and so
mean storm motion around 10 knots or less, the high rain rates may
stay over a location for a prolonged period increasing excessive
rainfall and a flood risk, especially for low lying and urban poor
drainage areas.

An upper level ridge is expected to build back in by the end of the
week decreasing rain chances. Heat will then increase, although at
this point just typical summertime values are expected with max
apparent temperatures between 100 and 107 degrees. The heat risk is
progged to be mainly in the moderate (level 2 out of 4) range, which
means affects may occur to those who are sensitive to heat,
especially those without cooling and hydration.

07/Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area
during the afternoon hours with the activity dissipating by 12/02z
with sunset and loss of daytime heating. Away from the convection
VFR conditions are expected. MVFR/IFR conditions can be expected
with any shower or storms that moves over a terminal with some gusty
and erratic winds.

Conditions are expected to stabilize after sunset with mainly VFR
conditions through the night.

A very moist air mass to go along with a disturbance aloft will help
initiate shower activity over the Gulf before sunrise that will
near the terminals across the I-10 corridor during Sunday morning.

07/Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Light southerly flow and low seas are expected to continue through
the weekend into the middle part of next week as weak surface high
pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected each day through the first half of next
week, with the most widespread activity Sunday into Tuesday as a mid-
level disturbance moves overhead. Winds and seas will be higher near
the thunderstorms. Rain chances gradually decrease after midweek as
high pressure builds back in aloft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Southerly flow will push a very moist Gulf air mass into the region
through early next week. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values
are expected to be in the 60 to 70 percent range. Meanwhile, a
weakness aloft and a stalled frontal boundary will work with the
moisture to provide widespread showers and thunderstorms each day
into early next week. Rain chances decrease starting Wednesday as
ridging begins to build back in aloft. No significant fire weather
concerns are expected through the forecast period with the exception
of cloud to ground lightning with the storms.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
103 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

TXZ180-201-259>262-111845-
Hardin TX-Southern Newton TX-Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-
Southern Jasper TX-Tyler TX-
103 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TYLER...
SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON...NORTHEASTERN HARDIN AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER
COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM CDT...

At 103 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Caney Head, or 7 miles southeast of Fred, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Silsbee, Kirbyville, Call, Evadale, Fred, Buna, Caney Head, Trout
Creek, Magnolia Springs, Old Salem, Mt. Union, Spurger, Wrights
Settlement, and Bleakwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3031 9410 3047 9432 3078 9417 3072 9383
      3049 9373 3027 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 222DEG 16KT 3050 9408

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Calhoun