Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
621 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for flash flooding for lower
  Southeast Texas and far Southwest Louisiana and a Marginal Risk
  (level 1 of 4) for most of the area through the early
  afternoon.

- Rain chances will start to decrease this evening and will range
  from 0 to 20 percent the week ahead.

- Temperatures will start to increase this week with highs in the
  low to mid 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A stream of Gulf fed moisture filters across across Southeast TX and
Southwest LA today. The coastal trough driving daily convective
showers and storms is showing signs of diminishing toward the
east. After a brief morning round of scattered activity, warming
in the lowest 1km AGL will create a cap decreasing the potential
for further convection. Highs will top out in the low 90s for most
locations while retaining that muggy high humidity.

The column begins to dry out further on Monday locally and likely
warm enough to inhibit convection under some weak subsidence.
Resulting less cloud cover will hedge high temperatures higher in
the lower 90s. Messaging will be pivoting away from flood concerns,
thankfully, to seasonal heat hazards or cautioning at the least.
Given the amount of antecedent rainfall, surfaces will likely carry
high RH during the afternoons amid the upcoming work week. This
will border many interior locations near heat advisory criteria so
outdoor activities should be padded with rest, cooling off, and
hydration.

We continue the warm / relatively drier pattern Tuesday where mid
90s are likely across central Louisiana and interior Southeast
Texas. Winds out of the south will acquire more southwest components
as surface high pressure moving across the SECONUS and broadening
over the central Gulf waters. These hot and dry conditions with
light southerly winds will stay in the forecast through Friday
night. Some of the guidance hints at an upper level trough
developing by the weekend, but this solution is weak and not well
represented in blended guidance or ensembles. That said, outside
of a quick seabreeze or garden variety pop up, rain chances stay
around 10% or less for the extended range.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Showers and storms are ongoing early this morning and will persist
through around the middle of the day, with the heaviest rain
expected to fall near/at BPT/LCH. This convection will continue to
cause reductions in VIS as well as a mixture of MVFR/IFR ceilings
through the next few hours. Convection will begin to taper off by
early afternoon, if not sooner, giving way to VFR conditions.
Winds will be breezy out of the south today, with occasional
gusts possible through the midday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The pressure gradient will gradually tighten into Sunday night which
is increase winds. Sunday night into Monday there could be a brief
period where winds reach SCA criteria over a portion of the gulf
waters. Winds will decrease again by Tuesday with a light to
moderate onshore flow anticipated through the remainder of the
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

No fire weather concerns through the period. That said, with respect
to rainfall, the pattern is showing signs of a much drier forecast
this coming week with chances of rain under 15% through Friday.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...17