Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
622 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms remain possible through this
  afternoon while a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall remains
  for greater portions of Southwest LA through tonight.

- Humid and muggy weather will continue for the rest of the week
  and into the weekend.

- Precipitation chances will remain modest to middling through
  early next week with the potential of scattered storms to
  develop each afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

A negatively tilted trough with a semi broad upper level gradient
will begin to lift across Arkansas through tonight allowing another
scattered round of precip over portions of the forecast guidance.
Wednesday's convection offshore has largely stabilized the lower
atmosphere per recent LCH 28th/OOZ sounding. Patchy fog during the
dawn hours today is possible inland, but lack of radiational
cooling and some mixing above the surface layer should mitigate
that.

Latest HiRes guidance suggests some destabilization will occur north
of the TX / LA coastline through the early dawn hours, but trends in
those solutions appear to be overdone. However, as the sun begins to
mix the low levels despite mostly cloudy skies, areas of scattered
showers / storms are favorable to develop along the I-49 corridor
through the late morning hours today from the Lower Atchafalaya.

Lingering chances for isolated to scattered storms remain in the
forecast Friday across much of SWLA, while SETX appears to entrain
drier air from the west. With more direct sunshine in the forecast,
temperatures will trend toward the upper 80s for highs. Weak upper
level ridging strengthens keeping chances of rainfall very isolated
toward the Atchafalaya into Saturday while highs trend warmer.
Portions of interior SETX and SWLA will top out near 90F.
Similarly, evening lows, will trend further into the low 70s
further inland.

Sunday the upper level pattern begins to smooth out, still
containing some small perturbations aloft per deterministic models
suggesting broader extent of isolated chances of storms carrying
across Louisiana into portion of eastern Texas. A week stationary
boundary develops north of the forecast area and slowly drifts
offshore through Tuesday morning. Building high pressure
descending from the Great Lakes further decreases these chances
Wednesday. Key take away here is that the forecast is now trending
away from excessive rainfall to a more early summer like pattern
which is on par with the start of Meteorological Summer.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Scattered showers rotating across central and south central
Louisiana around an upper level low over east Texas. These showers
will have the potential to affect the KAEX/KLFT/KARA terminals
through 28/16z with mainly MVFR ceilings and visibilities.

Later in the day, some daytime heating pop-up showers or storms
will be possible over the same locations so will have VCTS at the
KAEX/KLFT/KARA terminals after 28/16z.

Any convection that develops is expected to dissipate after
sunset or 29/01z.

07/Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Variable winds gentle breezes through this afternoon as the trough
axis lifts into the MS Valley this evening. Much of the impactful
weather will be out of the region. For the rest of the week and into
the weekend, high pressure off the eastern seaboard will keep the
general flow southerly with background winds around 10 to 15
knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Multiple rounds of heavy rain have helped drop the KBDI down into
the low 100s with some locations below 50. Forecast trended slightly
lower for precip chances today and Friday as upper level disturbance
shifts eastward. Overall, persistent southern flow will keep dew
points in the 70s with minimum RH values above 60%. Winds will be
from the south with 20 foot winds around 10 mph.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...07