Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
637 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled pattern will be in place into the Memorial Day
  Holiday weekend as the southern jet stream brings a series of
  upper level disturbances to work with a very moist air mass.

- The showers and thunderstorms that develop will have the
  potential to produce high rain rates and there is a risk of
  heavy rainfall and flooding into early next week.

- All interests in flood prone low-lying areas or flood prone
  urban poor drainage area, along with those along stream and
  river basins should keep aware of the latest flood risk
  forecasts.

- A Flood Watch is in place for all of southeast Texas and
  southwest, central and south central Louisiana until 7 PM
  Monday (Memorial Day). It is likely that this watch will be
  extended into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A long-wave trough extends across much of the US as a series of
short-wave troughs moves across the Gulf Coast. These features
will provide broad dynamic lifting. At the surface, a high-
pressure system is located to our east with low pressure to the
north, leading to robust southerly flow. The southerly flow has
led to high moisture content at the surface, with dew points in
the 70s across the region. The warm, moist air mass will lead to
high temperatures in the mid-80s with overnight lows in the upper
70s. The worst part will be dew points in the mid-70s leading to
heat index values in the low to mid-90s.

The main concern for this forecast will be a multi-day rain event
with widespread heavy rain expected at least through Wednesday.
The WPC is placing the region under either a Marginal (level 1 of
4) or Slight risk (level 2 of 4). Saturday and Sunday look to be
the most concerning with a Slight Risk for the entire region.
Precipitable water (PWAT) will be well above the 90th percentile
and will be around 1.8 inches. The downshear Corfidi vector is
expected to be around 10 knots, highlighting the risk for slow-
moving or back-building storms over a particular area. In
addition, there will be a large warm cloud layer, around 13 kft,
with efficient warm rain processes setting up a situation with
high rain rates being likely. Forecast soundings show a tall
skinny CAPE profile with values around 1500 J/kg. This will be
sufficient to support deep convection, but with 0-6 km shear
values around 20 knots, the main storm mode will likely be
multicell storms.

With each round of heavy rain, the ground will be less capable of
absorbing the additional rainfall, leading to an increasing flash
flood threat each day. In addition, rivers will start to respond
to the extra rain and are forecast to rise over the coming week.

Through at least the middle of next week, expect rain each day
with the possibility of high rain rates as the upper-level
synoptic pattern remains unchanged going into the extended
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

A very unsettled pattern is expected during the TAF period.
Clusters of storms already developing and our expected to affect
the terminals this morning, then another wave this afternoon. MVFR
to IFR conditions along with gusty winds in and near the storms.

07/Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Onshore flow will persist until at least the middle of next week,
with winds between 5 and 15 knots. Waves will be wind-driven and
should remain below 4 feet. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
will remain a concern for the remainder of the forecast; however,
most significant weather impacts will be felt onshore due to heavy
rain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Multiple rounds of heavy rain will continue to reduce drought
conditions. South winds will continue through the holiday weekend
and into next week with minimum RH values around 70% for the
remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Monday evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-
     073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Flood Watch through Monday evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
     516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
718 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

LAZ152-252-231300-
Upper Vermilion LA-Lower Vermilion LA-
718 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL VERMILION PARISH THROUGH
800 AM CDT...

At 718 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Forked Island, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Abbeville, Kaplan, Forked Island, Erath, Delcambre, Meaux, Esther,
and Henry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2965 9231 2982 9249 3012 9229 2999 9199
      2995 9199
TIME...MOT...LOC 1218Z 214DEG 18KT 2982 9235

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Rua

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
727 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

LAZ055-154-254-231330-
Lower St. Martin LA-Lower St. Mary LA-Upper St. Mary LA-
727 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ST. MARY AND
SOUTHEASTERN ST. MARTIN PARISHES THROUGH 830 AM CDT...

At 727 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Patterson Memorial Airport, or near Franklin, moving northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Morgan City, Franklin, Patterson, Berwick, Stephensville, Bayou
Vista, Patterson Memorial Airport, and Centerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2973 9110 2960 9144 2974 9156 2997 9134
      2997 9132 2975 9109
TIME...MOT...LOC 1227Z 233DEG 13KT 2972 9143

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Rua

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
812 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

LAZ030-TXZ180-259-260-231345-
Beauregard LA-Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-Tyler TX-
812 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL BEAUREGARD PARISH...
TYLER...NORTHERN NEWTON AND JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 845 AM CDT...

At 812 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Rockland to 7 miles
southeast of Colmesneil to near Warren. Movement was east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Woodville, Newton, Kirbyville, Colmesneil, Chester, Rockland,
Warren, Town Bluff, Call, Ebenezer, Fred, Bon Weir, Browndell, Trout
Creek, Spurger, Harrisburg, Farrsville, Magnolia Springs, and Old
Salem.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3106 9456 3105 9449 3103 9448 3103 9447
      3104 9444 3111 9406 3113 9404 3115 9386
      3087 9359 3052 9368 3057 9456 3101 9466
TIME...MOT...LOC 1312Z 267DEG 56KT 3101 9447 3085 9431 3064 9436

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Calhoun

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
815 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

LAZ073-141-241-TXZ516-616-231345-
West Cameron LA-Southern Calcasieu LA-Northern Calcasieu LA-
Northern Orange TX-Southern Orange TX-
815 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CAMERON...
SOUTHWESTERN CALCASIEU PARISHES IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTIES THROUGH 845 AM CDT...

At 815 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of West Orange, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Orange, Bridge City, West Orange, Vinton, Sabine National Wildlife,
Holly Beach, Pinehurst, Toomey, Edgerly, Hackberry, and Constance
Beach.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 in Texas between mile markers 880 and 872.
 Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 1 and 16.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2978 9383 3014 9385 3026 9345 2977 9343
TIME...MOT...LOC 1315Z 254DEG 35KT 2998 9370

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Calhoun

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
822 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

LAZ044-152-153-252-253-231345-
Upper Vermilion LA-Lower Iberia LA-Lower Vermilion LA-
Upper Iberia LA-Lafayette LA-
822 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE...
NORTHWESTERN IBERIA AND NORTHEASTERN VERMILION PARISHES THROUGH 845
AM CDT...

At 822 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Esther, or near Abbeville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
New Iberia, Abbeville, Broussard, Youngsville, Erath, Delcambre,
Esther, Coteau, Acadiana Regional Airport, Jefferson Island, Henry,
and Milton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2992 9229 3015 9202 3009 9194 3007 9195
      3007 9192 2998 9180 2980 9219
TIME...MOT...LOC 1322Z 233DEG 26KT 2990 9219

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kowalski

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
900 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

LAZ027-030-031-141-142-241-TXZ260-231445-
Southern Calcasieu LA-Allen LA-Beauregard LA-Vernon LA-
Northern Calcasieu LA-Northern Jefferson Davis LA-Northern Newton TX-
900 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS...
BEAUREGARD...CENTRAL CALCASIEU...SOUTHWESTERN VERNON...SOUTHWESTERN
ALLEN PARISHES IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 945 AM CDT...

At 900 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Newton to near Oretta to Carlyss. Movement
was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Charles, Sulphur, De Ridder, Westlake, Iowa, Newton, Rosepine,
Merryville, Fenton, Reeves, Dry Creek, Singer, Moss Bluff, De Quincy,
Ragley, Fields, Bon Weir, Burkeville, Bivens, and Topsy.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 11 and 51.
 Interstate 210 between mile markers 1 and 12.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3092 9309 3027 9278 3023 9293 3023 9300
      3021 9300 3008 9352 3048 9361 3079 9387
      3117 9365
TIME...MOT...LOC 1400Z 242DEG 26KT 3084 9367 3058 9345 3018 9336

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Calhoun