Tornado Warning 10, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
608 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are again possible across portions of western
  and southwest Nebraska this evening and tonight. A few storms
  could be strong to severe, with large hail, damaging winds,
  and locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Another threat for a few strong to severe storms is possible
  Sunday evening for areas along and west of HWY 61.

- The unsettled pattern continues into the middle of next week,
  with daily threats for showers and thunderstorms continuing
  across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

An upper ridge will reside over the Lower Mississippi Valley
tonight, with quasi-zonal flow aloft across the Central Rockies into
the Central Plains. Late this afternoon, thunderstorms will develop
to the west across eastern WY/CO and portions of the Panhandle.
Storms will track southeast as they grow upscale with time. An
initial threat for isolated large hail west of Highway 61, with any
discrete storms. Most of the activity will move in mid through late
evening, as a few clusters or a loosely organized line. This
suggests that the main severe threat locally would be damaging wind
gusts and locally heavy rain, with PWAT values still exceeding the
90th percentile climo across the area. The latest CAMs remain split
on the location of convection, with a few focusing across
portions of the western Sandhills into west central NE, while
others are confined to the southeast panhandle and far
southwest, or even south of the forecast area.

Will be monitoring for a threat for localized flash flooding
tonight, primarily in areas that saw heavy rain from overnight
storms across the southeast panhandle and southwest Nebraska.
Storms may be slow to exit far southeast Nebraska late tonight,
but should become focused from north central Kansas into south
central NE late. Lows tonight falling into the upper 50s to low
60s across the area.

On Sunday, dry conditions expected during the morning into the
afternoon hours with highs from the upper 70s to around 80 as weak
surface high pressure moves east. Another round of thunderstorms
possible across the western Sandhills and north central Nebraska
during the evening and overnight hours. Confidence in coverage and
location of these storms continues to remain low, with guidance
suggesting the greatest coverage into the western Sandhills and
north central NE. The better instability looks confined to along and
west of HWY 61 Sunday evening. Large hail and damaging winds look to
be the main threats, with deep layer shear 30 to 35kts and modest
instability of 500-1000 J/kg.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The active pattern continues Monday through Wednesday night, as
upper ridging begins to amplify across the western CONUS. This leads
to a west-northwest flow aloft. Guidance suggests occasional
disturbances will progress through the mean flow aloft, with a
daily threat for showers and thunderstorms across the area. PWAT
values will also fall into next week, as we lose the monsoonal
moisture with the transition to northwest flow. Some threat for
severe storms will also persist Monday, and also on Tuesday as a
cold front drops through the region. The threat for thunderstorms
continues through Wednesday night, with drier conditions expected
Thursday through Saturday as an upper ridge builds back over
the region.

Temperatures look to remain near average Monday in the mid to up
80s, to below average by Wednesday. This will keep any heat concerns
away, with a pleasant week expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Showers and thunderstorms return to southwest Nebraska this evening
with erratic, gusty winds along with hail being possible with these
storms. Expect some reductions in visibility as heavy rainfall is
also possible. Showers and thunderstorms push out of the region by
08Z Sunday with a gradual return to drier weather and VFR
conditions. An another round of thunderstorms are expected again
later on Sunday, but are expected to hold off until after 00Z
Monday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Kulik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
332 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-162045-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
332 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 /232 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few thunderstorms are possible mainly east of Highway 183 this
afternoon. This evening and overnight, additional thunderstorms are
possible across western and southwest Nebraska. A few storms could
be strong to severe this evening, with the greatest risk along and
west of Highway 61. Damaging winds and locally heavy rain look to be
the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms chances continue Sunday and into the middle of next
week. Locally heavy rainfall will remain a possibility, especially
across the southern Panhandle into southwest Nebraska. Storms could
also be strong to severe each day, with large hail and damaging
winds as the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.