Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1248 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread thunderstorms are expected Saturday across western and
north central Nebraska. A few storms could be severe, with large
hail, damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and a tornado or two.

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible Sunday
afternoon and evening across western and north central Nebraska. A
few storms could be strong to severe, with large hail as the primary
threat.

- High confidence in continued near-daily thunderstorm chances,
although the severe potential is uncertain.

- Moderate confidence in mild temperatures through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

The primary concern of the short term will revolve around a threat
for severe weather both today and tomorrow across much of western
and north central Nebraska.

For today: Confidence remains low with respect to the threat for
severe weather locally, largely tied to the evolution of early day
convection across the area. By sunrise, the area will sit to the
north of a warm front, in a broad and rather strong easterly upslope
regime. This is expected to promote scattered to widespread showers
and thunderstorms this morning and into the afternoon hours,
primarily across the Sandhills. The warm front is progged to slowly
lift north through the afternoon hours, though confidence wanes on
just how far north this boundary reaches. Even the most aggressive
solutions largely keep it near and south of I-80, with much of the
Sandhills and northern Nebraska under persistent stratus and points
to a rather cool late June day. That said, steep lapse rates aloft
will promote ample MUCAPE to lead to a persistent threat for repeat
thunderstorms through much of the day. Some threat for large hail
could develop within this regime as well, with long, straight
hodographs expected to be in place. It is also here where a threat
for localized flash flooding may develop, especially should the
thunderstorm threat linger into the evening and overnight hours.
PWAT values remain highly anomalous, and are expected to
approach the 99th percentile today amid the persistent moist
advection regime. Guidance has begun to come into better
agreement in this as well, with a growing number of solutions
suggesting a swath of 2-4" (with locally higher amounts) of QPF
across portions of central Nebraska through tonight. Considered
the idea of a flood watch, though with the antecedent dry
conditions, flash flood guidance remains rather high for much of
the area.

The main threat for severe weather looks to occur along and south of
the surface warm front, though confidence wanes with respect to its
position by late afternoon. Guidance continues to point towards two
areas of convective initiation tomorrow, with the first being
along the Front Range in eastern Colorado. These storms will
initially be high based, within a well mixed environment across
eastern and northeast Colorado. These storms are expected to
grow upscale as they move east into northwest Kansas and far
southwest Nebraska late tomorrow afternoon, as they encounter
richer boundary layer moisture and increasing instability.
Guidance differs with respect to the northern extent of this
convection, and casts some doubt on impacts locally. As of now,
it appears this line of storms will stay south of HWY 23, and
present a threat for damaging winds across far southwest
Nebraska.

The second regime of thunderstorm development looks to be with the
intersection of the warm front and the higher terrain of
southeastern Wyoming, where a supercellular mode looks to be favored
at least initially. These supercells will move east and
southeast through the evening tomorrow, and could impact
portions of the eastern Panhandle and southwest Nebraska with
time. This regime looks to be the favored corridor for
significant severe, highly dependent on the position of the
warm front and if storms can favorably interact with the
boundary. Should any of these supercells move along the boundary
and into portions of the area, all severe hazards would be
possible. Large to very large hail would be a prevalent threat,
with favorable effective bulk shear and ample instability in
place. A tornado or two would also be possible should a discrete
mode be sustained into southwest Nebraska, especially as the
low level jet strengthens and significantly enlarges hodographs.
The progression of the warm front will be monitored closely
today, and will directly impact the corridor favored for
significant severe weather today.

Upscale growth will occur with time tomorrow evening and into the
overnight hours, as the low level jet strengthens yet again across
the area. Repeat rounds of thunderstorms across central Nebraska
could again increase the threat for localized flash flooding, and
will need to be monitored closely. Convection finally begins to exit
the area around sunrise Sunday, as the low level jet begins to
weaken.

The area then remains in a post-frontal upslope regime Sunday, and
this should lead to another round of thunderstorm development
Sunday afternoon and evening. Coverage should be much lower than
that of today, with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
expected along a surface front positioned in western Nebraska.
Lapse rates remain plenty steep aloft, and should promote MLCAPE
as high as 1500- 2000 J/kg across western Nebraska by late
afternoon. Winds aloft remains strong Sunday as well, with
effective shear on the order of 45 to 55kts. Hodographs remain
long and straight with height, and suggest a threat for large to
potentially very large hail with any sustained discrete
convection Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Active weather will continue through much of the extended period as
series of disturbances impact the region through the middle of next
week. Near-daily thunderstorm chances will be possible through
Friday as upper level troughs continue to slide across Nebraska. At
this time, not expecting severe thunderstorms, but some small hail
and briefly stronger winds will be possible with these storms. In
addition, continued heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding
concerns across north central Nebraska. While QPF amounts for Monday
remain fairly light (under a quarter inch), some of the longer range
models suggest nearly another 1 to 2 inches (potentially higher)
through next week in addition to what was already received through
Saturday night. Overall, the heaviest rainfall will be under the
strongest storms and therefore it is difficult to locate exact
locations. However, rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1 inch per hour will be
possible in some of the stronger storms leading to localized
flooding concerns on area roadways, low lying areas, and small
streams especially across areas that already saw a couple inches of
rainfall Saturday and Saturday night. We will continue to monitor
this event and heavy rain potential over the next few days and
models get a better handle on the environment. Otherwise, rain and
ample cloud cover will keep temperatures fairly mild through Friday
with highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Low stratus will stick around across much of the Sandhills into
southwest Nebraska through the afternoon hours with LIFR
conditions possible, including KLBF terminal. Scattered
thunderstorms continue to develop across the northern Sandhills
into north central Nebraska with thunderstorms, coverage is
expected to become more widespread this evening with impacts at
both KVTN and KLBF terminals possible, with brief periods of
lower visibility and gusty, erratic winds. Winds will be out of
the east southeast around 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 kts
through this afternoon. Winds will diminish to around 5 to 10
kts out of the southeast this evening into the overnight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday morning
for NEZ038.

&&

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Gomez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
306 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-212015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
306 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 /206 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The threat for thunderstorms will increase this afternoon into
tonight. Severe storms will be possible with very large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes being the main threats. There
will also be the potential for heavy rainfall this evening into
Sunday morning. A tornado watch has been issued for portions of
southwest Nebraska through 10 pm CDT and a flood watch has been
issued for Custer County from 7pm to 7am CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and
evening with hail and strong winds being the main threats.

Thunderstorms will continue to be possible through Friday. At this
time the severe threat is uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
934 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

NEZ038-201500-
Custer NE-
934 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTY THROUGH
1000 AM CDT...

At 933 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Merna, or 11 miles northwest of Broken Bow, moving
southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Broken Bow, Merna, Anselmo, Berwyn, Victoria Springs State Recreation
Area, Weissert, Westerville, Lillian, and Round Valley.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 96 and 105.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 257 and 289.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 265 and 273.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4160 9998 4170 9977 4144 9925 4115 9981
TIME...MOT...LOC 1433Z 322DEG 40KT 4151 9981

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Gomez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1138 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

NEZ025-026-038-201715-
Custer NE-Thomas NE-Blaine NE-
1138 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CUSTER...SOUTHERN
BLAINE AND SOUTHEASTERN THOMAS COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 PM CDT...

At 1138 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dunning, or 18 miles southwest of Brewster, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brewster, Dunning, Milburn, Milburn Diversion Dam State Wildlife
Management Area, and Linscott.

This includes Highway 2 between mile markers 236 and 250.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4169 10023 4179 10027 4196 9982 4171 9973
TIME...MOT...LOC 1638Z 254DEG 40KT 4178 10015

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Gomez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1152 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

NEZ005-094-201715-
Eastern Cherry NE-Western Cherry NE-
1152 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY
THROUGH 1215 PM CDT...

At 1151 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Merritt Reservoir, or 30 miles southwest of Valentine,
moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Valentine National Wildlife Refuge.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 97 between mile markers 100 and 114.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 183 and 186.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4242 10093 4253 10100 4271 10072 4246 10048
TIME...MOT...LOC 1651Z 249DEG 33KT 4250 10087

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Gomez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1209 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

NEZ026-027-038-201745-
Loup NE-Custer NE-Blaine NE-
1209 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOUP...NORTH CENTRAL CUSTER AND
SOUTHEASTERN BLAINE COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 PM CDT...

At 1209 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Brewster, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Milburn, Milburn Diversion Dam State Wildlife Management Area,
Almeria Meadow State Wildlife Management Area, Horseshoe Bend Lake,
and Almeria.

This includes Highway 183 between mile markers 126 and 143.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4172 9978 4188 9985 4205 9943 4180 9931
TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 249DEG 32KT 4184 9972

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Gomez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1215 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

NEZ026-038-201730-
Custer NE-Blaine NE-
1215 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CUSTER AND SOUTHERN
BLAINE COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM CDT...

At 1214 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Anselmo, or 20 miles south of Brewster, moving east at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Anselmo, Victoria Springs State Recreation Area, Milburn, and Milburn
Diversion Dam State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes Highway 2 between mile markers 248 and 267.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4157 10012 4172 10012 4176 9974 4150 9974
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 269DEG 26KT 4166 10002

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Gomez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
112 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

NEZ005-094-201845-
Eastern Cherry NE-Western Cherry NE-
112 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY THROUGH
145 PM CDT...

At 112 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Merritt Reservoir, or 33 miles north of Mullen,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Merritt Reservoir.

This includes Highway 97 between mile markers 94 and 120.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4245 10119 4261 10119 4271 10077 4235 10075
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 265DEG 27KT 4252 10108

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Gomez