Severe Thunderstorm Warning 442, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
557 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight, locally heavy
  rainfall and a few briefly severe storms will be possible.
  Drier weather is expected behind a cold front Tuesday.

- Cooler temperatures Wednesday will quickly give way to above
  normal highs by the end of the week with increasing
  precipitation chances for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Upper level ridging will remain anchored across the southern plains
through Tuesday night. Meanwhile a potent upper level low will be
crossing southern Canada with upper troughing extending southward
northern Plains. A slow moving cold front associated with the
northern plains troughing is slowly moving southeastward across
western Nebraska this afternoon. The front by early this evening
should be located from near Ainsworth to North Platte. Moisture is
pooling ahead of the front with the latest 18Z sounding at North
Platte near 1.5". As far as the expected scenario: isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms could develop along the front during
the late afternoon hours. The more probable solution would be for
storms to form near and just to the north of the front this evening
on the nose of s strong southerly low-level jet. This could sustain
several hours of at least scattered thunderstorm activity before the
low-level jet begins to veer to the southwest and the front
progresses southeast of the area late tonight. Expected hazards: locally
heavy rainfall will be of concern due to the high moisture content
in the atmosphere. As far as the severe potential, overall shear
and instability would support some storm organization and there
is at least some potential for a few briefly severe storms with
hail and strong gusty winds.

The front will sink south of the area tomorrow (Tuesday)...with the
convective potential shifting south and east of the area. Humidity
does get quite low behind the front Tuesday afternoon across
northwest Nebraska, but winds are decreasing during this time which
should keep any fire weather concerns in check.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Upper flow will become generally zonal by midweek across most of
CONUS. The departing frontal boundary from Monday/Tuesday will not
only bring a slight cooldown, with highs forecasted to be in the low
to mid 80s across the region but will also prevent the northward
expansion of richer low-level moisture for the next few days. This
will coincide with high pressure settling into the region,
precluding any high chances for measureable precipitation during
this time frame. A break from the zonal flow in way of an upper
level ridge is forecasted to trek across the northern Plains
Thursday/Friday. This ridge is expected to further build upon
the high pressure that is settled into the region and bringing
daytime highs up to mid to upper 80s Thursday and the upper 80s
to low 90s Friday. Additionally, dry air is expected to creep in
from the west with humidity dropping to the low to mid teens
along and west of HWY 61. This area of low humidity will have
some overlap with breezy winds of 15 to 20 mph gusting up to
near 30 mph out of the southwest Thursday, then out of the
northwest Friday to highlight at least the potential for
elevated fire weather conditions, especially with a lot of areas
still being in D2 drought.

Moving into the weekend, deep troughing will move onshore into the
Pacific Northwest sometime early Saturday. This feature will
continue to dig southward and move across the Rockies into the
northern/central Plains through the weekend. In the lead up to this,
weak southwesterly flow will establish itself across Nebraska. This
will allow for better moisture transport to again reach our neck of
the woods. HREF guidance has forecasted PWATs of a range of 1.0 to
1.25 inches which would put us near the 95th percentile with other
models pushing that percentile to near 140% above normal. This would
suggest the potential for a greater rain potential to go along with
a cooldown. While high PWATs are forecasted, guidance has still been
a bit bullish on total accumulations during this period, maintaining
only a 30 to 50 percent chance of the region seeing at least 0.10"
of rainfall each day Saturday through early Monday morning. The
higher end percent of this is located on the east side of our CWA
from HWY 83 and east.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 556 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

There will be a threat for thunderstorms at the KLBF terminal
from 00z to 06z this evening. Will handle this with a VCTS group
through 02z with a tempo group from 02z to 06z this evening.
Skies will remain mostly cloudy overnight into Tuesday morning
with ceilings ranging from 10000 to 20000 FT AGL. Expect
clearing skies there after. For the KLBF terminal: Expect mainly
broken ceilings around 20000 FT AGL to persist through early
Tuesday morning. Ceilings will then increase to 25000 FT AGL
remaining broken through Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...MRS
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Buttler

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
421 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-082130-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
421 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 /321 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will become likely this evening along a frontal
boundary stretching from north central through southwest Nebraska.
A few storms may be breifly strong to severe with large hail and
strong, gusty winds. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A few thunderstorms are possible Tuesday along the frontal boundary,
with the focus mostly east of the area.

Warmer temperatures and breezy conditions may lead to increased fire
weather concerns later this week with the greatest concern being
Thursday and Friday for areas west of Highway 83.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Taylor

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
459 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

NEZ059-070-071-072245-
Frontier NE-Hayes NE-Lincoln NE-
459 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN FRONTIER...SOUTHERN
LINCOLN AND SOUTHEASTERN HAYES COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 459 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Culbertson, or 14 miles southeast of Hayes Center,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Curtis, Stockville, Medicine Creek Reservoir State Recreation Area,
Maywood, Quick, Bluegill Haven Campground, Willow View Campground,
Freedom, Red Willow Reservoir State Recreation Area, and Dancing Leaf
Earth Lodge.

This includes Highway 83 between mile markers 27 and 54.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4037 10102 4079 10066 4041 10017 4035 10045
      4035 10098
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 233DEG 26KT 4038 10081

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CLB