Severe Thunderstorm Warning 434, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
709 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A threat for strong to severe thunderstorms late this
  afternoon and evening, mainly across portions of central and
  north central Nebraska with large to very large hail and
  damaging winds a concern.

- While most locations remain dry, low chances for showers and
  a few thunderstorms Wednesday evening and overnight.

- Thursday through Saturday night, a warmer, drier pattern
  settles over the region. Temperatures are likely to range
  from 10 to 15 degrees above normal, with limited precipitation
  chances expected.

- Increasing chances for precipitation Sunday through Monday night
  with above normal temperatures persisting.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Late this afternoon and evening...A warm front is forecast to extend
across far northern Nebraska, with a surface trough extending south
near Highway 83. Moderate instability exceeding 3000 J/kg south of
the front across the Sandhills. Deep layer shear to 40 to 50kts will
support strong to severe storms possible. SPC is forecasting a
Slight Risk area across the eastern half of north central Nebraska
south into northern Custer County. A shortwave trough currently from
northeast CO and the western Sandhills moving east, will interact
with increasing shear and instability. Isolated supercells are
possible initially late afternoon and early evening, with large to
very large hail and damaging winds possible. A tornado is also
possible with increasing low level shear toward 00Z. A cluster of
storms is expected to develop east of Cherry County, with an
increasing threat for severe damaging winds and large hail, with the
highest POPs (40 to 50) to the east across the remainder of north
central Nebraska. The activity will push east of the area after
midnight. Lows in upper the 50s to near 65.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...An upper trough will extend across
the Northwestern U.S. with an upper ridge centered over the
Southeast U.S. Across the Central Plains, southwest flow aloft, with
surface low pressure from eastern CO into central MT. Highs will
heat up to near 90, with near 95 southwest. Convection will initiate
across the higher terrain to our west during the afternoon, with
another area where storms could initiate is over over central NE by
late afternoon, though confidence is very low in this. A slight
chance for storms across the western Sandhills during the evening,
with showers and a few storms possible in the west overnight. Also a
slight chance for thunderstorms across far eastern areas as a
low level jet develops across south central into eastern NE.
Lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Upper level ridging will gradually build into the region Thursday
into the Labor Day weekend. This will bring a warmer, drier pattern
to the region through Saturday night. By Sunday and Monday, the
upper ridge may begin to flatten out across the Northern and Central
Plains as shown by the 12Z GFS. The ECMWF maintains stronger upper
level ridging. Highs Thursday through Saturday forecast to range in
the low to mid 90s, with some upper 90s southwest. As medium
range models diverge on the strength of the upper ridge Sunday
through Tuesday, highs from 85 to the low 90s. Precipitation
chances increase during this period as well, mainly during the
evening and overnight hours.

Latest ensemble guidance has increased to a 30 to 40 percent
probability of precipitation exceeding one tenth of an inch for the
24 hour period ending 12Z Monday and again 12Z Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 704 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Scattered thunderstorms through the evening hours, the greatest
threat across north central Nebraska, with additional
thunderstorms possible across southwest Nebraska into the
Sandhills this evening. Thunderstorms may impact KLBF terminal
this evening, but expect thunderstorms to stay east of KVTN
terminal. Winds within thunderstorms will be gusty and variable,
but outside of thunderstorms winds should remain light and
variable through the overnight. Winds will become southerly
around 5 to 10 kts Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Gomez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
346 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-022100-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
346 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026 /246 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible into this evening, mainly east
of Highway 83 across north central Nebraska. These storms will bring
a risk for large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
locally heavy rainfall. A tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
701 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     Hail             3 NW Amelia             42.26N 99.00W
09/01/2026  E1.00 Inch       Holt               NE   Public

            Also reported a half inch of rain. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

MRS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
703 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     Flood            5 S Butte               42.84N 98.85W
09/01/2026                   Holt               NE   Public

            Corrected report from 6 S Butte. Report of
            flooding around property.

&&

MRS

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