Severe Thunderstorm Warning 409, NWS North Platte, NE

253 
WWUS53 KLBF 280122
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
822 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

NEC005-101-117-280145-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0409.000000T0000Z-260828T0145Z/
Arthur NE-Keith NE-McPherson NE-
822 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM
CDT/745 PM MDT/ FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARTHUR...NORTHEASTERN KEITH AND
SOUTHWESTERN MCPHERSON COUNTIES...

At 822 PM CDT/722 PM MDT/, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles
southeast of Arthur, moving south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Keystone, Kingsley Dam, Big Bald Hill, Broganville, and Bucktail
Lake.

This includes Highway 61 near mile marker 95.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
North Platte.

&&

LAT...LON 4154 10164 4156 10139 4120 10135 4119 10167
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 346DEG 20KT 4146 10153 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

NMJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
612 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening,
  especially across north-central and central Nebraska, with
  large to very large hail and damaging winds the primary
  threats. Significant wind gusts of 75 mph or greater are
  possible.

- Additional thunderstorm chances persist Friday through early
  next week, though the severe threat and coverage will vary
  each day.

- Hot temperatures return this weekend, with Saturday the
  hottest day. Highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s, low humidity,
  and gusty winds may also result in elevated fire weather
  conditions across western Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

This afternoon into the evening, the severe weather threat remains
on track across much of the area. Southerly low-level flow is
maintaining increased moisture across the region early this
afternoon. Some mixing of surface dew points may occur through peak
heating, though ample low-level moisture should remain to support
considerable instability. Current satellite imagery shows a mid to
upper-level disturbance moving across Montana into Wyoming, which
will continue southeast along the northern periphery of an upper-
level ridge centered across the southwestern United States.
Increasing large-scale ascent associated with this disturbance,
combined with strengthening low-level convergence, should provide
sufficient forcing for thunderstorm development initially across the
Black Hills and southwest South Dakota this afternoon. Across the
forecast area, the severe weather environment remains quite
favorable for this time of year. SBCAPE values of 3000 to 3500 J/kg
are forecast across portions of north-central Nebraska. ECAPE values
are also quite favorable, suggesting that the combination of
instability and the wind profile will support strong, sustained
updrafts capable of efficiently utilizing the available buoyancy.
Deep-layer shear will also be favorable for organized convection,
with 0-6 km bulk shear around 40 to 45 knots. Forecast hodographs
show some low-level curvature, particularly as the low-level jet
strengthens this evening, while the mid and upper portions of the
hodograph remain relatively long and largely characterized by speed
shear. Current thinking is that thunderstorms developing across
southwest South Dakota will initially favor discrete supercells
before moving southeast into north-central Nebraska within the
northwest flow regime. These initial supercells will be capable of
producing large to very large hail given the combination of strong
instability, favorable ECAPE, and sufficient deep-layer shear.
Previous analogs and similar synoptic patterns also lend support to
the potential for significant hail. With time, storm interactions
should favor upscale growth into one or more line segments as
convection moves southeast into western and central Nebraska. This
transition would favor an increasing damaging wind threat.
Significant wind gusts of 75 mph or greater will be possible given
DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg, steep low-level lapse rates, and
favorable 0-3 km delta theta-e values supporting strong downdraft
potential. The tornado threat remains low, but is not zero.
Strengthening of the low-level jet this evening should result in
increasing low-level SRH and greater hodograph curvature. Any
supercell that can remain discrete could briefly take advantage of
this environment. However, forecast 4-6 km storm-relative winds
remain relatively parallel to the initiating boundary, which should
encourage storm interactions and upscale growth, limiting the
overall tornado potential. The SPC has expanded the Slight Risk
across portions of the area and has reintroduced a hatched
significant wind area in addition to the existing significant hail
area, which aligns well with the expected evolution. Current
guidance moves the primary convective activity east of the forecast
area by around midnight CDT, with predominantly dry conditions
expected into early Friday morning.

Friday, the upper-level ridge across the southwestern United States
will amplify and gradually shift eastward through the day. Another
weak disturbance is forecast to move along the northeastern
periphery of the ridge Friday afternoon into the evening. Ample
instability will remain across the area, though the strongest deep-
layer shear is forecast to remain farther north across the Dakotas.
This should favor more scattered convection across the forecast
area, with thunderstorm development also dependent on whether the
cap can be overcome during the afternoon. Another opportunity for
convection may develop Friday evening into the overnight as
thunderstorms originating across South Dakota move south into north-
central Nebraska. The SPC currently highlights this area in a
Marginal Risk. At this time, damaging winds and locally heavy
rainfall appear to be the primary threats, though forecast trends
will continue to be monitored. Southerly winds will also strengthen
through the day, resulting in gusty conditions across much of the
area. Highs Friday will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with
overnight lows remaining in the lower to middle 60s.

Saturday, the upper-level ridge will continue shifting eastward into
the south-central United States. This will establish southwesterly
flow in the 850-700 mb layer, resulting in stronger warm air
advection across the region. Forecast 850-mb temperatures rise into
the 30 to 35C range, which is well above normal for this time of
year. Strong daytime mixing should allow much of this warmth to
reach the surface, making Saturday the hottest day of the forecast
period. Highs are expected to reach the middle 90s to lower 100s.
Given the recent dry conditions across southwest Nebraska,
temperatures may ultimately trend even warmer across this area. The
combination of hot temperatures, minimum relative humidity values
falling below 25 percent, and gusty southwest winds approaching 25
mph may result in elevated fire weather conditions Saturday
afternoon, particularly west of Highway 61. Another weak disturbance
may move through the region Saturday evening into the overnight
hours, providing another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms,
especially across north-central Nebraska where stronger upper-level
flow will reside. At this time, the organized severe weather threat
appears relatively low, though this will continue to be monitored
over the next several forecast cycles.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Sunday, a strong 597-dam 500-mb upper-level ridge will remain
centered across the south-central United States, while a trough
remains across the western United States. This will maintain broad
west to southwest flow aloft across the region. Warm conditions will
persist as 850-mb temperatures remain in the 25 to 30C range,
supporting afternoon highs generally in the lower to middle 90s.
Despite somewhat stronger flow aloft, precipitation chances should
remain relatively low Sunday as warm mid-level temperatures and
associated capping limit convective development. Overnight
temperatures will remain quite mild, with lows generally in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Monday, the upper-level ridge is forecast to flatten and shift
farther into the southeastern United States as a weak shortwave
ejects northeastward from the western longwave trough. An associated
frontal boundary is expected to move southeast across the region
during the day, bringing cooler temperatures with highs ranging from
the middle 80s north to upper 80s south. Increasing large-scale
forcing and low-level convergence along the boundary should also
result in increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Monday
afternoon into the evening. Severe weather may be possible given the
potential overlap of sufficient instability and stronger deep-layer
shear. However, confidence in the magnitude and location of the
threat remains low at this range.

Tuesday into late next week, the western United States trough will
attempt to progress eastward while the upper-level ridge across the
southeastern United States begins to reamplify and expand westward.
This evolution should maintain relatively warm conditions, with
highs returning to around 90 degrees or the lower 90s by the middle
and latter portions of next week. Periodic precipitation chances
will remain possible, though the timing and coverage will depend
heavily on the strength and track of individual disturbances moving
through the flow. Overall, the long-term pattern favors the better
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend into
early next week, followed by a trend toward warmer and drier
conditions by Wednesday into the latter part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Severe thunderstorms are currently occurring across north-
central Nebraska and are expected to move south into western and
central Nebraska later this evening, potentially impacting the
KLBF terminal between 02Z and 05Z. Brief MVFR visibility
reductions, along with gusty and erratic winds, will be possible
with any thunderstorms. The primary round of convection should
exit the area later tonight, though additional thunderstorm
development will be possible across north-central Nebraska early
Friday morning. Beyond this activity, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail across the area through Friday evening.
Southerly winds will become quite gusty Friday, with sustained
speeds of 20 to 25 knots and gusts up to 35 knots possible.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Labenz
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Labenz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
258 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-282000-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
258 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026 /158 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are likely late this afternoon and evening.
Some may be severe, with large hail to very large hail and damaging
wind gusts to 75 mph or greater. Locally heavy rainfall is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional isolated chances for thunderstorms will be possible
Friday and into the weekend. At this time, the severe threat is
uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
757 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 WNW Stapleton         41.48N 100.52W
08/27/2026  M61 MPH          Logan              NE   Mesonet

            Davis Weatherlink station.

&&

MRS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
802 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

NEZ022>024-035-036-057-280200-
Hooker NE-Grant NE-Arthur NE-McPherson NE-Garden NE-Keith NE-
802 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ARTHUR...NORTHWESTERN PERKINS...
SOUTHEASTERN GRANT...KEITH...SOUTHWESTERN HOOKER...NORTHWESTERN
LINCOLN...EAST CENTRAL GARDEN AND WESTERN MCPHERSON COUNTIES THROUGH
900 PM CDT/800 PM MDT/...

At 802 PM CDT/702 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 17 miles northeast of
Keystone to 12 miles northeast of Lemoyne to 8 miles west of Arthur.
Movement was south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ogallala, Arthur, Paxton, Brule, Swan Lake, Keystone, Kingsley Dam,
Sarben, Lemoyne, Roscoe, Flatts, Green Lake, Bucktail Lake, Bourquim
Hill, Three Mile Lake, Eagle Gulch Campground, Haythorn Lake, Lena,
Sand Puddin Lake, and Nevens.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 61 between mile markers 79 and 139.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 123 and 186.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 114 and 150.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT/900
PM MDT/ for southwestern and west central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4177 10132 4140 10126 4101 10126 4100 10183
      4108 10198 4178 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 358DEG 23KT 4143 10141 4142 10163 4153 10184

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

NMJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
803 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NNW Stapleton         41.49N 100.52W
08/27/2026  M92 MPH          Logan              NE   Mesonet

            Davis Weatherlink station.

&&

MRS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
804 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Stapleton               41.48N 100.52W
08/27/2026  M80 MPH          Logan              NE   Mesonet

            Ambient Weather Station.

&&

MRS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
807 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 NNE Stapleton         41.55N 100.48W
08/27/2026  M71 MPH          Logan              NE   Mesonet

            Davis Weatherlink station.

&&

MRS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
808 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     10 SSW Stapleton        41.35N 100.59W
08/27/2026  M80 MPH          Lincoln            NE   Mesonet

&&

MRS