Severe Thunderstorm Warning 327, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
652 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight, mainly across
  north central Nebraska. Damaging winds and locally heavy
  rainfall are the primary threats.

- Thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are possible both Monday and
  Tuesday. Large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall
  are all possible.

- The unsettled pattern continues Wednesday and Wednesday night,
  with drier conditions and a warming trend expected Thursday
  through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Tonight...an upper ridge will reside over the Southeastern U.S. and
Southern Plains, with a west-northwest flow aloft across the
Northern and Central Plains. A disturbance currently located over
far southeast MT and northeast WY will track southeast across
southwest SD this afternoon, including the Black Hills, with
thunderstorms developing. A cluster of storms is forecast by some of
the CAMs as well as the deterministic NAM and GFS to moving into
north central NE this evening, and possibly into portions of central
NE late tonight. Hail will be possible through mid evening, mainly
across Sheridan and western Cherry county. Otherwise, the main
severe threat would be damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain,
with PWAT values still exceeding the 90th percentile climo across
the area. Other storms are likely to develop in the higher terrain
to our west this afternoon, and should remain to our west this
evening.

Monday and Monday night...Upper ridging will increase across the
Rockies as a deep upper trough moves into Hudson Bay Canada. This
will maintain a west-northwest flow aloft across the region. Highs
to reach the mid to upper 80s. A surface trough will extend from
southwest MN into southwest NE by 00z. South of the trough, a
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s are expected across southwest into
north central NE. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to
develop by late afternoon ahead of the surface boundary. Modestly
steep lapse rates and strong heating of the moist boundary layer
will result in 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE amid 35+ kt effective shear
magnitudes. This should result in organized supercells capable of
large hail and damaging gusts. The area of greater concern will be
eat of Highway 61, where SPC is forecasting a Slight Risk of severe
storms. Some upscale growth could occur during the evening as a
modest low-level jet develops. If this occurs, damaging winds and
locally heavy rainfall would become the primary threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The active pattern continues Tuesday through Wednesday night, as
upper ridging begins to amplify across the western CONUS.

Tuesday afternoon, surface low pressure will deepen over CO, as a
cold front sags south from north central NE. South of the cold
front, moderate to strong instability is expected to develop by
afternoon. Forecast soundings show steep midlevel lapse rates, with
vertically veering wind profiles supporting 40+ kt effective shear.
Initial supercells could pose a risk for large hail and severe
gusts. The area of greater concern will be southeast of of a line
from Arthur through O'Neill, where SPC is forecasting a Slight Risk
of severe storms. With time, sufficient clustering could occur ahead
of the front as a low-level jet increases during the evening, and
MCS development may occur across central into southeast NE. Likely
POPS Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, especially south of
Highway 2 and 91.

Wednesday, models have been indicating a fairly strong disturbance
dropping southeast through the region during the afternoon and
evening. Storms may linger into Wednesday morning from Tuesday night
activity as well. Storms developing during the afternoon and evening
may be strong to severe, as 0-6km shear ranges from 45-50 kts. With
highs only in the mid to upper 70s, instability may be limited to
around 1500 J/KG. POPs are fairly high at 50 to 60 percent Wednesday
into Wednesday evening.

Upper ridging over the Rockies will gradually build eastward into
the plains by this weekend, with drier conditions expected Thursday
through Sunday. Highs near to slightly below normal in the upper 70s
to mid 80s Thursday, then slightly above normal in the 80s, with
near 90 southwest Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 651 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Showers and thunderstorms return to portions of northern Nebraska
this evening with erratic, gusty winds along with hail being
possible, along with some small hail with these storms. Expect some
reductions in visibility as heavy rainfall is also possible. Showers
and thunderstorms push out of the region by 12Z Monday with a
gradual return to drier weather and VFR conditions. An another round
of thunderstorms are expected again later on Monday, but are
expected to hold off until after 00Z Tuesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Kulik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1236 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-171745-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
1236 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 /1136 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this
evening and tonight, primarily across portions of north central
Nebraska. A few storms could be strong to severe, with a threat for
damaging winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms chances continue into midweek across western and north
central Nebraska. Locally heavy rainfall will remain a possibility
each day. Storms could also be strong to severe as well, with large
hail and damaging winds as the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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