Severe Thunderstorm Warning 313, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
641 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible across the
region late this afternoon and evening with large to very large
hail, damaging wind gusts, and localized flooding being the primary
threats.

- Isolated thunderstorm chances will continue through the weekend
where some storms could become severe, with some additional
localized flooding concerns.

- Below normal high temperatures are expected Thursday through early
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Persistent upper level ridging anchored over the southern CONUS has
allowed for continual southwest flow aloft, bringing monsoonal
moisture up into the Northern Great Plains. As such, active weather
is forecasted through the rest of the week.

Scattered thunderstorms will possibly develop across western
Nebraska and move eastward through the evening and into the
overnight hours tonight. A weak mid level jet is forecasted to be
over western Nebraska late this afternoon/early evening. This,
combined with surface heating and dewpoints in the mid 60s, should
be enough to initiate scattered thunderstorm activity along the
Panhandle and southwest Nebraska. While short range CAMs still have
a little disagreement over exact coverage and how strong
thunderstorms will become, the environment does support severe
thunderstorms. Guidance suggests an environment with ample
instability that will favor initial supercell development that can
produce large to very large hail (40 - 50 kts of bulk wind shear,
steepening mid level lapse rates and MUCAPE cresting above 3500 -
4500 J/kg). As storms moves eastward they should grow more upscale
int clusters and become more of a damaging winds threat with
downstream DCAPE values being sufficient at 1100 - 1300 J/kg for
potential 60 - 80 mph gusts. Minor localized flooding will also be
possible with PWATS above the 90th percentile for this time of year.

Thursday and Friday will be a similar tune where thunderstorm
chances will increase late afternoon into the evening each day. As
it stands now, guidance suggests there will be weaker instability
compared to the last couple of days where MUCAPE only peaks up
to 2000 J/kg across central to southern Nebraska. Nevertheless,
moist low level easterly flow to the north of a surface low will
at least support isolated thunderstorm activity along and south
of Highway 83 where large hail and damaging winds will still be
possible.

Temperatures are still expected to reach the low to mid 90s this
afternoon across southwest Nebraska whereas the rest of the CWA will
be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Thursday will bring quite a cool
down for north central Nebraska with highs only topping out in the
upper 70s (5 - 10 degrees below normal), with areas along and south
of I-80 remaining in the mid 80s. Friday will be a slight warmup
across the region with highs in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Near daily thunderstorm chances will remain through the weekend.
Upper ridging will gradually back towards the west through the
weekend and into next week with the weekend having the best
potential of wetting rains. Guidance is currently suggesting a
40 - 60 percent chance of a quarter of an inch or more over
southwest into south central Nebraska Saturday and Sunday
evening. Whereas early next week guidance suggests a 30 - 50
percent chance of a tenth of an inch falling across the same
area. This is still subject to change as models become more
refined but remains enough of a signal now to highlight it.

Weekend temperatures will remain below normal due to the easterly
low level flow and near overcast skies that will persist. Highs are
expected to only peak in the low 80s across areas along and south of
I-80, with mid to upper 70s highs expected northward. Highs will
warm slightly to the low to mid 80s by next week but this will still
remain about 5 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Thunderstorms developing across the Panhandle will slowly push
eastward through the evening hours. Erratic, gusty winds along with
large hail will be possible with these storms and may impact both
terminals. Expect some reductions in visibility as heavy rainfall is
also possible. Some light fog will be possible by early Thursday
morning causing reductions in visibility down to 3 miles at times.
Dry conditions return for much of Thursday, but ceilings will
generally remain below 5000 feet. Another round of thunderstorms
are expected later on Thursday, but are expected to hold off
until after 00Z Friday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...MRS
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...Kulik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
303 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-132015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
303 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 /203 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are again expected to develop late this
afternoon into the early evening across western Nebraska and spread
eastward later tonight.Primary threats include damaging winds and
large to very large hail. In addition, locally heavy rainfall will
be possible tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Additional chances for thunderstorms are expected Thursday through
Sunday. The threat will transition to locally heavy rainfall during
this period, however, a strong or severe storm cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
841 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

NEZ004-022-023-094-130330-
Sheridan NE-Grant NE-Western Cherry NE-Garden NE-
841 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CHERRY...
NORTHWESTERN GRANT...NORTH CENTRAL GARDEN AND SOUTHERN SHERIDAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM MDT...

At 841 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ellsworth, or 25 miles east of Alliance, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ellsworth, Antioch, Watson Lake, Patterson Lake, Finnegan Lake,
Kincaid Lake, Kennedy Lake, Wild Horse Flats, Smith Lake State
Wildlife Management Area, Snow Lake, Bingham, Wickson Lake, Diamond
Lake, Lakeside, Wolf Hill, Herman Lake, Jerry Lake, Krause Lake, and
Argo Hill.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 250 between mile markers 1 and 30.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 98 and 132.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains
in effect until 200 AM MDT for north central and west central
Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4175 10233 4213 10273 4252 10256 4217 10185
TIME...MOT...LOC 0241Z 224DEG 45KT 4206 10238

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

NWS LBF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1020 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NW Crescent Lake Nwr  41.76N 102.45W
08/12/2026  M58 MPH          Garden             NE   Park/Forest Srvc

            Cresent Lake RAWS station.

&&

MRS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1121 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

NEZ005-024-025-036-037-094-130500-
Hooker NE-Eastern Cherry NE-McPherson NE-Western Cherry NE-Thomas NE-
Logan NE-
1121 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CHERRY...EASTERN
HOOKER...NORTHWESTERN LOGAN...NORTHEASTERN MCPHERSON AND THOMAS
COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT/1100 PM MDT/...

At 1121 PM CDT/1021 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 19 miles southwest of
Merritt Reservoir to near Seneca to 14 miles north of Ringgold.
Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Thedford, Seneca, Brownlee, Highway 83 crossing The Dismal River,
Highway 97 crossing the North Loup River, Marsh Flat, Norway, Giant
Hill, Highway 97 crossing Big Creek, Natwick, and Highway 83 crossing
the North Loup River.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 191 and 218.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 81 and 109.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 131 and 171.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT/200 AM
MDT/ for north central and west central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4261 10075 4225 10050 4175 10037 4172 10086
      4208 10094 4245 10119
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 243DEG 23KT 4240 10108 4212 10085 4173 10075

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NWS LBF