Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
635 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight and
  tomorrow. A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) has been issued for
  both days, with damaging winds and large hail looking to be
  the main threats.

- The pattern shifts towards cooler than seasonal temperatures
  Thursday into early next week.

- The cooler pattern will also bring daily precipitation
  chances, with potential for locally heavy rainfall each day.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

An upper level trough is located off the Pacific Coast, which has
nudged an upper level high to the east, now located over the
Panhandle regions of Oklahoma and Texas. This has pushed stronger
winds aloft north across the Dakotas, with some stronger winds aloft
remaining across portions of northern Nebraska. At the surface, low
pressure is observed over eastern and south central Nebraska. A
stationary front tracks across the northern Sandhills, with a north-
south oriented surface trough across the western Sandhills. Highs
are observed ranging form the upper 80s across north central
Nebraska to the upper 90s to lower 100s across the Panhandle, with
dewpoints ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s. A few weaker cells
have developed along the stationary front across northern
Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Storms are expected to continue forming across western Nebraska this
afternoon, especially in vicinity of the boundaries, where surface
convergence is enhanced. As seen by the LBF 18z upper air sounding,
there is already ample surface based CAPE across the region, with
values already exceeding 6,000 J/kg! However, there is still some
remaining CIN from this morning that will need to be overcome.
However, if cells develop along the surface boundaries, lapse rates
aloft, as well as the instability aloft, should support strong
updraft development this afternoon and evening. CAM guidance
continues to suggest the possibility of a few stronger cells forming
across the Sandhills this afternoon, in a region just south of the
current convective outlook. Despite this, if cells can get going in
this environment this afternoon, think there does exist some
potential for the stronger cells to produce some large hail.

However, the "main event" is expected to be the late evening to
overnight convection across South Dakota tracking into northern
Nebraska. This is the area covered by a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5).
With the stronger deep layer shear across the Dakotas, may see some
more organized convective development across South Dakota tracking
south into the region. With the ample instability aloft across
Nebraska, storms tracking into the area should be able to maintain
their intensity, bringing a risk for large hail and damaging wind
gusts. Do think the bigger concern is hail at this time, though the
wind threat will certainly need to be closely monitored, especially
if convection grows more linear in nature.

Behind the storms overnight, expecting light winds to prevail again,
especially across northern Nebraska. This, combined with ample low
level moisture may bring an additional risk for patchy fog
development during the predawn hours, lasting into the early
morning. For now, think the main area of concern will remain
portions of north central Nebraska and possibly into the Sandhills,
where lower level humidity is expected to be more substantial.
Further to the south, forecast soundings suggest a slightly drier
low level layer, which will likely inhibit the potential for fog to
develop and spread.

Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
Wednesday across the region, with the entire region now under s
Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Though partly cloudy skies are expected throughout the day,
somewhat limiting the ability for instability to build throughout
the day, there should still be sufficient CAPE available for
stronger cells by the late afternoon and evening. An upper level
shortwave is expected to track into the region, enhancing upper
level winds, and thus deep layer shear. Combined, this should
support organized convection across the region, with some initial
threat for more isolated cells becoming more multicellular through
the evening. With the ambient environment, still believe that large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. However,
with the upper pattern starting to shift, may also begin to see
deeper moisture across the region, supporting a risk for locally
heavy rainfall. In fact, the Weather Prediction Center has issued a
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall given the expected moisture
tracking into the region. With active weather the next few evening,
certainly make sure to have multiple ways to receive updates and
warnings.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The notable pattern shift is expected to be in full swing by
Thursday, as cooler than seasonal temperatures are expected into the
early portions of next week. Have seen a slight warming trend in the
latest forecast runs, which now indicate highs late week and through
the weekend will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Still,
even though there is a slight warming trend in forecast highs, these
still remain cooler than seasonal, as typical highs this time of
year are still around 87 to 89 degrees. A closer examination at the
probabilistic temperature spreads show still a fair amount of
uncertainty in exact temperatures through this pattern shift. Much
will largely depend on cloud cover and precipitation chances through
the week, though some questions still remain on how far south an
area of cooler temperatures aloft will be able to track. If this
cooler air can sink further south, then we may still favor highs
struggling to leave the 70s across most of the region. However, even
with this slight uncertainty, even the forecast highs in the 80s are
only a few degrees above the 80 degree mark. Interestingly enough,
these slightly warmer highs still remain between the 10th and 25th
percentile compared to local climatology, giving higher confidence
in cooler than average temperatures.

With the upper level trough remaining to the west, will also see
some enhancement in the lower level flow, which should bring a plume
of monsoonal moisture across the region through the weekend. This
plume of enhanced moisture will support higher than average PWAT
values, supporting locally heavy rainfall across most of the region.
With this push of moisture and a fairly active weather pattern,
daily precipitation chances are expected across most of the region,
with potential for some beneficial rainfall totals through the
weekend. Ensembles remain fairly split on their solutions for where
heavier rain is likely to set up. Looking at likelihood of exceeding
one inch of total precipitation through Saturday evening, the
European solution indicates a 50 percent chance for most of the area
north of I-80 getting at least an inch, with a 70 percent chance of
this occurring north of Highway 2. The GEFS solution meanwhile only
indicates a 20 percent chance of this occurring across most of the
area, and only a 40 percent chance north of Highway 20! Currently,
ensemble guidance continues this difference when reduced to even one
half inch, with the European solution well over 50 percent north of
I-80, and the GEFS only 30 to 40 percent north of I-80. At the
least, thinking that wetting rainfall will occur, however, question
remains on what the higher end amounts will be through the weekend.
For what it is worth, WPC has issued a Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall each day through Saturday for all of western and north
central Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Isolated thunderstorms are currently impacting portions of southwest
Nebraska. While not expected to impact KLBF directly, some
vicinity thunderstorms will be possible for the next couple of
hours. Another round of thunderstorms arrives across northern
Nebraska later this evening lasting into early Wednesday
morning. Some erratic, gusty winds along with small hail will be
possible with these storms and may impact KVTN. As storms push
out of the area, some patchy fog could develop across north
central Nebraska. Reductions in visibility down to 4 miles will
be possible before dissipating after sunrise.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Richie
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Kulik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
303 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-122015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
303 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 /203 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms, a few severe, will be possible late this
afternoon and evening across northern Nebraska. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional chances for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected Wednesday afternoon and evening across much of the area.
The threat will then turn to the threat for locally heavy rainfall
Wednesday night through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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