Severe Thunderstorm Warning 276, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
659 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to high confidence in a return to precipitation this
evening and again on Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.

- High confidence in cooler, below normal temperatures through
Thursday.

- Moderate confidence in dry conditions as well as a return to above
normal temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Surface high pressure will slowly slide to the east throughout today
with a cold front advancing by late afternoon. This will keep
temperatures above normal for much of the region today before colder
air filters in behind the front. Warm air advection ahead of the
front will push 850mb temperatures in the 28 to 31 C into the region
allowing for temperatures to rise into the low 90s to low 100s by
late afternoon. Clouds will continue to increase as the cold front
tracks across the region along with a wind shift from the south to
the north by late afternoon. Some stronger winds will also be
associated with the frontal passage and with the combination of dry
conditions and stronger winds, critical fire conditions will persist
across the eastern Panhandle through early evening. See the fire
weather section for more details.

For precipitation, this cold front will result in some rain and
thunderstorm chances by the evening. Convection initiation timing is
still a little uncertain, but current radar imagery shows some light
showers already developing across the region indicating the
environment is primed and ready. The best potential for
thunderstorms will likely occur between 5pm and 7pm, being discrete
initially before becoming more scattered in nature. With a narrow
ribbon of instability across central Nebraska, there should be
enough support for a few severe thunderstorms with damaging winds as
the main threat. Thunderstorms should weaken shortly after sunset
and instability wanes. Some lingering stronger storms may be
possible across northern Nebraska where better instability and
forcing persists through 06Z. All precipitation is anticipated to
push out of the region around Midnight CT as high pressure slowly
builds back into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

The main weather concern in the long term will be the significantly
cooler temperatures for the middle of the week. High temperatures
will drop nearly 25 degrees from Monday with low temperatures
dropping nearly 20 degrees. With 850 mb temperatures dropping into
the 8 to 12 C range, surface highs will struggle to rise much above
the mid 70s on Tuesday with lows dropping into the 50s. These
temperatures are nearly 15 to 20 degrees below normals (normal high
in the upper 80s/low 90s; normal low in the low 60s). These cooler
temperatures will be short lived as gradual warming is expected into
next weekend. Highs will return to the 90s and low 100s by Sunday.
Overnight lows will also slowly increase back into the 60s by
Saturday morning.

Another round of thunderstorms return on Tuesday evening as a short
wave trough pushes through Nebraska. Current guidance suggests the
severe risk is low as limited to no instability will be around to
support any organized convection. However, we should still get some
good rains as areas generally south of Highway 2 could see up to a
half inch or more of QPF.

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will build back into
the region mid-week and outside of some lingering isolated showers
Wednesday morning,conditions will remain dry through the end of the
week and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight across western and
north central Nebraska. Locally gusty winds can be expected with
these this evening. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.
Winds will become north to northeast at 15-25 kts this evening
and gusty. Winds will gradually diminish during the day
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Critical fire weather concerns are expected through this evening as
RH values drop and winds remain strong. Humidity will continue to
drop over the next few hours before bottoming out in the upper teens
by late afternoon. The lowest RH values will generally be across
southwest Nebraska into the eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills.
A frontal passage is currently tracking across the region resulting
in some enhanced winds with gusts up to 45 mph as well as a wind
shift from the south to the north by late afternoon. Limited
rainfall is expected with this front initially leading to a
potential for some dry lightning across southwest Nebraska which may
result in increased fire starts. A Red Flag Warning will remain in
effect for fire zone 204 due to these strong winds, lower RH values,
limited rainfall, and fuels that are still partially cured and ready
to burn.

Increased moisture due to precipitation chances on tonight and
Tuesday night into Wednesday as well as cooler temperatures will
keep fire concerns low through mid-week. However, a return to dry
and warm conditions will bring a return to elevated to near-critical
fire concerns by the end of the week. Stay tuned to the latest
forecasts for additional fire concerns heading into late this
week.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ204.

&&

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Taylor
FIRE WEATHER...Kulik

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
716 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

NEZ058-059-069-070-040100-
Chase NE-Hayes NE-Perkins NE-Lincoln NE-
716 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN PERKINS...EASTERN
CHASE...SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHWESTERN HAYES COUNTIES THROUGH
800 PM CDT/700 PM MDT/...

At 716 PM CDT/616 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Imperial, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Imperial around 620 PM MDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Wanamaker State
Wildfire Management Area and Chase.

This includes Highway 61 between mile markers 41 and 55.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4043 10175 4061 10187 4086 10135 4057 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 250DEG 35KT 4055 10169

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Taylor

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
739 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

NEZ036>038-059-040115-
Custer NE-McPherson NE-Lincoln NE-Logan NE-
739 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN...SOUTHERN
LOGAN...SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON AND WEST CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTIES
THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 738 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Stapleton, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Lincoln, southern Logan, southeastern McPherson and west central
Custer Counties, including the following locations... Hoagland,
Tarboz Lake, and Logan.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 92 between mile markers 223 and 247.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 95 and 114.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4127 10068 4144 10073 4158 10028 4129 10019
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 258DEG 30KT 4137 10060

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Taylor

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
741 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

NEZ036-037-059-040115-
McPherson NE-Lincoln NE-Logan NE-
741 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL LINCOLN...
SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN AND SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM
CDT...

At 740 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Ringgold, or 13 miles south of Tryon, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Lincoln, southwestern Logan and southeastern McPherson Counties.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 92 between mile markers 211 and 222.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 9 and 24.
 Highway 83 near mile marker 105.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4125 10094 4141 10105 4158 10072 4139 10053
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 243DEG 29KT 4137 10091

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Taylor

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
809 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

NEZ037-038-059-040200-
Custer NE-Lincoln NE-Logan NE-
809 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN...
SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN AND WESTERN CUSTER COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM CDT...

At 809 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles east of Gandy to 13 miles north of
Brady. Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Arnold around 815 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Tarboz Lake, Etna,
Pleasant Hill, Logan, Hoagland, Milldale, and Finchville.

This includes Highway 92 between mile markers 238 and 264.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4163 9998 4118 9986 4111 10034 4151 10044
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 254DEG 19KT 4146 10033 4121 10027

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Taylor