Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
216 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon into the evening for areas along and east of Highway 83.
The main threat will be damaing wind gusts but an isolated hail and
tornado threat cannot be ruled out.

- Warm, dry conditions expected heading into the weekend and through
Monday, which will bring about elevated to near critical fire
weather concerns.

- A potential return to seasonal highs and some light precipitation
chances expected through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across most of the
region, but especially across north central into central Nebraska.
An upper level shortwave from the Mountain West will continue to
move eastward into our region by mid afternoon. This should interact
with the unstable environment and help provide better lift for
thunderstorms this evening. A surface low has developed in southern
South Dakota to further help initiate cells as the cold front moves
through. Dewpoints remain high (low to mid 70s) across north central
to central Nebraska along with ample MUCAPE at 2500 - 3000 J/kg
should provide an environment for severe growth. CAMs have had
general agreement in starting out supercellic in nature with modest
0-6 km CAPE at low to mid 30 knots. While H850 temps are on the
warmer side in the mid to upper 20s C, the MUCAPE mentioned above
along with modest lapse rates shows that an isolated large hail
threat is possible. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat
as storms transition into a potential line later this evening. CAMs
have been in fair agreement of cells bunching into a line early this
evening and moving southeastward into central Nebraska. This also
matches up with a large area of about 1000 J/kg DCAPE. With
abnormally high Pwat values of 1.91 inches as well as low and
mid RH values being near the 75% threshold from our 18z sounding
there is a signal for storms to be potential flood producers
regardless of severe potential. As such, a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch has been issued for most of the CWA until 9 PM CDT which
lines up with CAMs on when most of our convection should move
out of our region.

Friday will start to bring a return to warmer, drier conditions as a
ridge moves in from the west. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s
with gusty northerly winds up to 30 - 35 mph. This will promote some
elevated fire concerns even humidity only being around 40
percent.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Summer heat will build back over the weekend as an upper level ridge
moves in from western CONUS. As it stands, guidance is currently
suggesting H850 temps in the 20 - 30C with surface highs cresting
the mid 90s on Saturday with surface highs reaching even higher to
triple digits in the eastern Panhandle on Sunday. These warmer
temperatures along with afternoon humidity values dropping to
20 - 25 percent across the eastern Panhandle into the Sandhills,
with moderate probability (30 - 50%) of humidity dropping into
the teens, especially Sunday. Combine this with gusty south
southeast winds and little to no wetting precipitation expected,
will make for the likely return of elevated to near critical
fire weather concerns for the western half of our CWA. Will
continue to closely monitor the forecast for any increased
confidence with this trend.

By Monday afternoon, the ridge will begin to breakdown as an upper
level trough begins to dig into the region from western Canada. This
will largely be the driving force for stronger winds and heightened
fire weather concerns. LREF guidance suggests at 50 - 70%
probability of wind gusts in excess of 30 mph gusts across the
region. With highs in the mid to upper 90s and afternoon
humidity will drop to low 20s to upper teens along and west of
Highway 83, this will make for near critical fire weather
conditions, where if the trend holds, could warrant some fire
weather headlines, depending on how receptive fuels are to
recent rains. This will be another trend to monitor for any
changes. A cool front will push through Monday night, returning
to near seasonal high temperatures for the rest of the week.
There is some signal for better precipitation chances Monday
night with a cool front moving in but, there remains some
ensemble disagreement over just how much precipitation will fall
during this time with GEFS and ECMWF members showing 0 - 0.1"
while GFS being on the aggressive side with up to a half inch of
rain by the end of Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Scattered thunderstorm will be possible across north central
Nebraska by early to mid afternoon, impacting KVTN and move
southeastward through the evening. KLBF could possibly be clipped by
these thunderstorms as they move southeastward this evening.
Gusty, erratic winds and MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in
and around any thunderstorms. Once storms clear out by late
evening, winds will become gusty out of the northwest at 10 - 15
kts gusting up to 25 kts across the region. Some low clouds are
expected to move in early Friday morning which will bring about
a period of MVFR conditions but should clear out Late Friday
morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...MRS
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...MRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
235 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-311945-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
235 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 /135 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through
evening across western and north central Nebraska. The main threat
will be damaging wind gusts, though an isolated hail and tornado
threat cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
445 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

NEZ005-008-025-094-302230-
Brown NE-Eastern Cherry NE-Western Cherry NE-Thomas NE-
445 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CHERRY...
SOUTHWESTERN BROWN AND NORTH CENTRAL THOMAS COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM
CDT...

At 445 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Valentine National Wildlife Refuge to 11
miles northwest of Brownlee to 19 miles south of Merritt Reservoir.
Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brownlee, Valentine National Wildlife Refuge, Highway 97 crossing the
North Loup River, Highway 97 crossing Big Creek, Giant Hill, Highway
83 crossing Goose Creek, and Highway 83 crossing the North Loup
River.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 97 between mile markers 88 and 95, and between mile markers
97 and 98, and near mile marker 103.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 152 and 187.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4229 10012 4208 10031 4198 10066 4241 10111
      4248 10086 4264 10072
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 314DEG 29KT 4251 10068 4241 10077 4237 10093

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Richie

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
454 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     13 NW Brownlee          42.39N 100.83W
07/30/2026  M72 MPH          Cherry             NE   Mesonet

&&

MRS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
456 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     13 NW Brownlee          42.40N 100.83W
07/30/2026  M70 MPH          Cherry             NE   Mesonet

&&

MRS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
502 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     13 NW Brownlee          42.40N 100.83W
07/30/2026  M80 MPH          Cherry             NE   Mesonet

&&

MRS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
507 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 N Ainsworth           42.62N 99.86W
07/30/2026  M70 MPH          Brown              NE   Mesonet

&&

MRS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
527 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     Tornado          20 N Mullen             42.33N 101.04W
07/30/2026                   Cherry             NE   CO-OP Observer

            Brief landspout reported.

&&

MRS