Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
213 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected early this
morning through early afternoon across portions of the Sandhills and
central Nebraska. A few storms could be severe, with large hail and
strong winds as the primary threats.

- Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible again this
evening, though any redevelopment is uncertain due to this
morning's thunderstorms.

- A threat for thunderstorms will persist into late week and the
weekend. The threat for severe weather is uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Currently, scattered thunderstorms persist across portions of the
northern Nebraska Panhandle and far southwest South Dakota. These
thunderstorms are at the nose of a strengthening low level jet,
which is centered over eastern Colorado northwards into the southern
Nebraska Panhandle. This activity is expected to persist through
much of the night, as the low level jet maximum slowly moves east
towards southwest Nebraska with time. Widespread thunderstorms are
expected to overspread the Sandhills prior to sunrise, and persist
into early afternoon as they move east into central Nebraska. This
will also promote increasing MUCAPE through the early morning hours,
to as much as ~1500-2000J/kg across much of southwest Nebraska and
the Sandhills. The environment remains strongly sheared aloft as
well, with forecast soundings indicating long and straight
hodographs with height. The combination of ample elevated
instability and deep layer shear will lead to a threat for a few
strong to severe storms overnight, with large hail being the primary
threat. Depending on the strength of the low level inversion, a few
instances of strong winds cannot be ruled out as well. Locally
heavy rainfall will also be a threat overnight and into tomorrow
morning, as training thunderstorms are possible amid PWAT values
approaching the 90th percentile climo. Any instances of flash
flooding will likely be confined to areas of central Nebraska, where
flash flood guidance is lowest locally.

The early day thunderstorms casts significant uncertainty
on any severe weather later this afternoon and evening, though
trends will continue to be monitored. Should airmass recovery occur
today, though the strong deep layer shear in place suggest some
threat for supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging
winds yet again across the area. The more likely scenario is for any
severe thunderstorms this evening to remain off to the south of the
area across northeastern Colorado and western Kansas.

Another round of scattered thunderstorms is possible overnight into
Wednesday morning, though the low level jet looks to remain focused
off to the south of the area. Another round of convection then looks
to come off the high terrain Wednesday evening, with some threat for
large hail and damaging winds to extend into southwest Nebraska by
late Wednesday evening. Any severe threat Wednesday looks to largely
remain confined to areas of the southern Panhandle and far southwest
Nebraska at this time, with instability quickly waning with
northeast extent into the Sandhills and central Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The active weather looks to persist into the long term period, as
the broad and strong northwest flow continues into late week across
much of the Plains. Though mesoscale details will need to be
resolved with respect to threats late week, ample instability will
overlap adequate deep layer shear for organized updrafts both
Thursday and Friday. Some threat for convection originating in the
higher terrain and moving east into western Nebraska late evening
appears plausible both days.

A deeper upper trough then begins to traverse into the Pacific
Northwest by this weekend, finally reaching the northern Plains by
early Monday morning. Ahead of this trough, increasing moisture
advection will pull much deeper surface moisture northwards into the
area, as high as the upper 60s to lower 70s in some guidance
solutions. This should lead to very strong instability across the
area, and with it at least some threat for thunderstorms. Guidance
differs with respect to the placement of surface boundaries, which
is to be expected at this range. Regardless, trends will need to be
monitored for a continued threat for severe weather into this
weekend, as the deep upper trough slowly moves east into the
northern Plains. Confidence wanes as we head into early next week,
as the aforementioned upper trough moves off to the north into
Canada. Some guidance has begun to hint at strengthening upper
riding across the central CONUS by middle to late next week, though
confidence in this remains low for now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening will become more
widespread over the overnight hours as they push east and south.
Some storms may be strong to briefly severe with large hail being
the main threat. Some stronger winds could also be possible
especially in any more organized storms. These showers will continue
through the morning hours, weakening by early afternoon and finally
pushing out of the region. Conditions will gradually improve through
the remainder of the TAF period, but overcast to broken skies with
ceilings below 3000 feet will persist along and south of I-80
impacting KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Kulik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
202 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-240715-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
202 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026 /102 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will persist through this morning across
much of north central Nebraska. Hail and strong winds will be the
main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue to be possible
through Friday. At this time the severe threat is uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
305 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

NEZ004-231000-
Sheridan NE-
305 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL SHERIDAN COUNTY
THROUGH 400 AM MDT...

At 305 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Red Cloud Campground, or 11 miles southwest of Hay
Springs, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rushville, Hay Springs, Clinton, Diamond Lake, Intersection of Beaver
Creek Road and White Clay Creek Road, Smith Lake State Wildlife
Management Area, Highway 250 crossing the Niobrara River,
Intersection of Highway 87 and Antelope Road, and Walgren Lake State
Recreation Area.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 74 and 100.
 Highway 250 between mile markers 16 and 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4276 10277 4278 10230 4224 10233 4232 10275
      4244 10275 4244 10277
TIME...MOT...LOC 0905Z 262DEG 29KT 4260 10288

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NWS LBF