Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
Issued by National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
642 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread thunderstorms are expected across across western
  to north central Nebraska through Saturday evening. A few
  storms could be severe, with large to very large hail, severe
  winds (some 75+ mph), locally heavy rainfall, and a tornado or
  two could be possible.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible Sunday
afternoon and evening across western and north central Nebraska. A
few storms could be severe with large hail and a brief tornado or
two being the primary concerns.

- Near-daily thunderstorm chances continue into the week but
  severe potential remains uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

A warm front has been nudging in from southwest Nebraska, promoting
easterly flow and scattered thunderstorm throughout the morning.
Later on in the day, a shortwave trough is trekking eastward across
the Utah/Idaho border, at the same time, southeasterly low level
winds are feeding warm, moist air into the area. As low level clouds
and fog continue to burn off through the late afternoon, the region
will be primed for the development of widespread strong to severe
thunderstorms late afternoon into the early evening. The environment
is conducive for a persistent threat for clusters of severe storms.
Ensembles have a swathe of MUCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg along
with sufficient 0-6 km bulk shear of 50 - 60 kts blanketing western
and north central Nebraska which would be a conducive environment
for the potential of large hail. Models have been a little
disagreeable for how far north storms will develop, but show
moderate to high agreement for storms developing along and south of
I-80, where clustering of storms will move across and become more
upscale. Confidence remains lower on how organized storms could be
further north where some models have it being widespread where
others are nonexistent. A tornado threat cannot be ruled out
especially over far southwest Nebraska where low clouds have
already started to clear out. Additionally, a threat of
localized flooding is developing with PWAT values remaining high
and a growing number of models suggesting a swath of 2 - 4" of
QPF across central Nebraska through tonight, a flood advisory
has been issued for Custer county to highlight this concern.

Transitioning to Sunday, strong to severe thunderstorms remain
likely across western and into north central Nebraska. Storms look
to start out discrete, supercellular in nature. 30 - 40 kts
bulk shear combined with ample instability will make the
environment conducive for storms having large to very large
hail. A tornado or two also remains a possibility, especially
when the low level jet strengthens during the early evening
through the overnight hours. This is all dependent of the
progression and location of the frontal boundary so this will
continue to be monitored closely for any changes.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Active weather continues to be the tune for much of the week with
near-daily thunderstorm chances. Numerous small shortwaves move
through Nebraska until an upper level trough moves into the early
Friday. As such, while severe weather potential remains uncertain at
this time, confidence is increasing that it could be a rainy week
regardless. Confidence is moderate to high that localized
flooding will be a growing concern for portions of central
Nebraska. With soils already being likely saturated from the
weekend rains and rain rates possibly being 0.5 to 1 inch per
hour, flooding over roadways, low lying areas, and small streams
will be a potential threat to keep an eye out to monitor for
over the next forecast packages. Other than thunderstorm and
flooding concerns, the week looks to remain mild with highs
remaining in the mid 70s until next weekend where near normal
highs return.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

KLBF- Dense low stratus will remain overhead through the night
and into tomorrow. Currently, cigs are sitting around 1500 ft.
Between 02-06z, we will see a potential line of storms move
through the area. As this moves through, cigs will drop between
500-1000 ft with vis as low as 4 SM. Some uncertainty remains
on when this will finally move out, but roughly around 06z we
should see much of the activity moving east of the area. This
will leave us with overcast skies and IFR cigs. 10z and beyond,
cigs are expected to decrease even more, becoming overcast
around 500 ft. These conditions will remain through much of the
morning.

Winds will remain gusty and out of the east-southeast until
around 06z, with gusts upwards to 25 KTs. As the line of storms
move through between 02-06z, gusty winds may result. Thus, opted
to include VRB winds with gusts upwards to 40 KTs in the PROB30
group for when this comes through. After 06z, winds will
gradually decrease and generally become light and variable by
10z.

KVTN- Dense low stratus deck will remain draped over the area
through tonight and much of Sunday. Currently, cigs have been
hovering around 1000 ft and should continue through the start
of the TAF period. Between 00-04z, we will have the chance for
isolated-scattered showers/storms, which can drop cigs to
around 800 ft and vis to 5 SM. 12z Sunday, the low stratus will
remain overhead and around 500 ft. Another round of isolated-
scattered showers/storms will move through after 15z Sunday,
which may result in even lower cigs. Confidence is lower at this
time. Thus, opted to message through a PROB30 group.

Gusty winds will remain through the start of the TAF period,
with southeasterly winds between 10-15 KTs gusting upwards to 25
KTs. Wind speeds will gradually decrease through the night,
becoming light and southeasterly after 12z Sunday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...MRS
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...Gunkel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
306 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-212015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
306 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 /206 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The threat for thunderstorms will increase this afternoon into
tonight. Severe storms will be possible with very large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes being the main threats. There
will also be the potential for heavy rainfall this evening into
Sunday morning. A tornado watch has been issued for portions of
southwest Nebraska through 10 pm CDT and a flood watch has been
issued for Custer County from 7pm to 7am CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and
evening with hail and strong winds being the main threats.

Thunderstorms will continue to be possible through Friday. At this
time the severe threat is uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.