Special Weather Statement, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
152 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light and variable breezes are on track to freshen to gentle to
  moderate easterlies tonight. The wind forecast is unusually
  uncertain for the next few days. Large swings both up and down
  will be possible.

- Rain and thunder chances will continue the trend upwards,
  peaking tonight and Thursday.

- A marginal (1 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall is in effect over
  the Florida Keys this afternoon and tonight.

- Increased cloud cover and convective coverage will help to trend
  temperatures down to near normal over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026
Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop in the
vicinity of the Florida Keys. Outside of showers, VFR conditions
will prevail at both EYW and MTH. Shower activity will be capable
of IFR VIS. Near surface winds will be very chaotic. Gusts into
the 30s are possible near +TSRA. Outside of showers, expect
periods of MVFR CIGs around the island chain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026
A fairly complicated evolution of our weather is expected over
the next few days. The mid latitude trough will continue to swing
off of the Atlantic Coast and the associated surface low will
deepen as it migrates northeastward just off the Atlantic Coast.
At the same time the eastern United States surface high will build
southward reaching into the Keys and steadily push a weak surface
frontal boundary through South Florida and eventually the Keys.
Adding to this mess, a southern stream upper trough over the Gulf
will result in the formation of a central Gulf low that will
slowly lumber its way northward as it deepens. The band of
increased moisture will remain across our area and CAPE will
remain at least modest. Altogether, this points to a several day
period of much higher than normal rain and thunder chances, as
well as the threat of bouts of moderate to fresh northeasterlies
to easterlies. There is considerable uncertainty regarding wind
speeds through the remainder of the week. The incoming freshening
northeasterlies, along with increased cloud cover and convective
activity will help to stymie the recent hot weather. Expect highs
and lows to trend back towards normal over the next couple of
days, remaining there through the remainder of the week. Dew
points will likely remain in the lower to mid 70s, with some
slight lowering later in the week as drier air moves in around the
surface high.

Towards and through the weekend, strong mid to upper level
ridging will build northeastward across the Gulf of America. This
will result in mid level warming, reducing CAPE significantly.
However, lower level moisture will remain quite high and
inhibition will generally be limited. The old eastern United
States surface high will steadily migrate southeastward off the
Carolina Coast on Friday and eastward out into the Atlantic
through the weekend. Expect broadly easterly breezes to trend
downwards and rain chances fall back to normal climatology at a
slight to low chance. With this temperatures will rebound to
slightly above normal with dew points returning to the mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026
A robust surface high blanketing the eastern United States will
build southward across our area today. Meanwhile, a low pressure
system in the Gulf of America will gradually take shape and deepen
over the next few. In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity
is expected to ramp up, peaking tonight or Thursday. The
combination of the above will result in light breezes this morning
increasing to at least gentle to moderate this afternoon. There
is the potential for periods of stronger breezes. However
uncertainty is unusually high, and will be dependent on how far
south the high builds, the strength and position of the Gulf low,
and the extent and nature of showers and thunderstorm activity.
Heading into late week and this weekend, the high will swing
southeast and eastward into the Atlantic and the Gulf low will
lift into the central Gulf Coast. In response, breezes will
gradually trend downwards, as will rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  78  88  78  89 /  80  80  70  60
Marathon  77  85  78  86 /  70  80  70  60

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

Public/Marine/Fire...AJP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....AJP

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Key West FL
1107 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1049 AM     Waterspout       5 WSW Key West          24.53N 81.85W
06/03/2026                   GMZ044             FL   NWS Employee

            A waterspout was observed via webcam and
            verified by a NWS employee southwest of Key
            West. The waterspout formed at 1040 AM and
            lasted for at least 10 minutes. The
            condensation funnel was well formed and
            tilted approximately 45 degrees. A spray
            ring was observed during the life cycle. The
            waterspout dissipated around 1050-1055. Time
            and duration based on webcam.

&&

AJP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Key West FL
412 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

FLZ076-032100-
Monroe Upper Keys FL-
412 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT UPPER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY
THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

At 412 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jewfish Creek Bridge, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Key Largo, Jewfish Creek Bridge, Route 1/card Sound, Route 1/card
Sound Road Split, and North Key Largo.

This includes US 1 between mile markers 100 and 112.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2513 8034 2507 8040 2514 8050 2518 8048
      2524 8050 2522 8048 2523 8048 2524 8049
      2523 8047 2525 8046 2525 8045 2524 8044
      2518 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 285DEG 8KT 2520 8045

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MJV