Red Flag Warning 2, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
320 AM AST Sun Jun 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 320 AM AST Sun Jun 14 2026

* Generally stable weather will persist through early next week,
  with limited rainfall and continued dry conditions.

* Warm to locally hot conditions will continue, with heat indices
  commonly exceeding 100°F and isolated areas surpassing 108°F.

* Elevated fire danger is expected across portions of southern
  and western Puerto Rico, Vieques, and St. Croix due to prolonged
  dryness, dry fuels, warm temperatures, and breezy conditions.

* Fresh to strong east-southeast winds will create breezy
  conditions, choppy seas, and a moderate risk of rip currents
  along many exposed beaches.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 320 AM AST Sun Jun 14 2026

Broad surface high pressure over the North Atlantic will maintain
a prevailing east-southeast trade wind flow through the period,
steering intermittent patches of shallow moisture interspersed
with drier-than-normal air across the region. At the same time, a
persistent mid-level ridge and very dry air aloft will suppress
deep convection, while light concentrations of Saharan dust
continue to produce hazy skies with minimal impacts. Expect
mainly brief, fast-moving passing showers across windward areas
and isolated to locally scattered afternoon showers over western
Puerto Rico.

A tropical wave moving through the Caribbean will remain south of
the local islands, producing only minor fluctuations in moisture
and wind speeds. Although the mid-level ridge may weaken slightly
by Tuesday, only subtle changes in the overall weather pattern
are anticipated, with generally limited shower activity
continuing.

The primary hazards through the period will be heat, gusty winds,
and elevated fire danger. Afternoon heat indices will commonly
exceed 100 degrees Fahrenheit, with isolated locations reaching or
exceeding 108 degrees. Fresh to strong east-southeast winds will
create breezy conditions, particularly across exposed coastal
areas and the local islands. While these conditions may appear
favorable for beach and outdoor activities, residents and visitors
should remain mindful of the heat stress, gusty winds, and
elevated fire danger.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 320 AM AST Sun Jun 14 2026

A surface high pressure system located over the central Atlantic
will continue to maintain breezy conditions under an east-southeast
wind flow. At the mid-levels, high pressure will sustain very low
relative humidity values, keeping conditions aloft dry and stable
through at least Thursday. By Thursday and into the weekend, an
upper-level low will develop northeast of the area, increasing
instability aloft as 500 mb temperatures cool down to -8°C to -9°C.
This feature is expected to interact with a passing tropical wave
from Thursday into Friday, increasing the potential for frequent
passing showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto
Rico, followed by afternoon convective activity across portions of
central and northwestern Puerto Rico.

At this time, uncertainty remains regarding the extent of the
rainfall. During this period, several factors could work against the
wet forecast, such as the exact positioning of the upper-level
trough, intrusions of mid-level dry air and Saharan dust. Residents
and visitors should stay aware of updates as the forecast evolves
during the week. Regardless, any rainfall would be highly beneficial
for areas currently experiencing abnormally dry or moderate drought
conditions across the islands. Following the passage of the tropical
wave over the weekend, the upper-level low will migrate northward,
reducing its influence over the region. Drier conditions will
prevail once again as moderate concentrations of Saharan dust filter
into the area, promoting hazy skies, reduced visibility, and poor
air quality.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 320 AM AST Sun Jun 14 2026

Mainly VFR conds will prevail at all TAF sites thru the fcst pd.
VCSH with brief -SHRA is psbl in the vcnty of TJBQ btwn 14/17Z-20Z
due to iso aftn convection over W PR, and near TJSJ aft 14/23Z
with passing trade-wind showers. Light concs of Saharan dust will
persist acrs the local area, resulting in locally hazy skies with
minimal VIS impacts. E-ESE sfc winds will incr to 15-20 kt with
higher gusts and sea-breeze variations fm 14/14Z-23Z, bcmg 10 kt
or less ovrngt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM AST Sun Jun 14 2026

A broad surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will
maintain fresh trade winds and choppy marine conditions through at
least late Sunday into Monday. Therefore, seas are expected to range
between 4 and 6 feet, occasionally higher, across the regional
waters and local passages. Small craft operators should exercise
caution along the offshore Atlantic waters. Surface conditions will
change, with winds becoming more moderate, resulting in seas between
3 and 5 feet. A tropical wave will move south of the region,
increasing winds over the offshore Caribbean waters and increasing
the chances of thunderstorm activity, resulting in localized
hazardous marine conditions. From Sunday into the upcoming workweek,
fair weather conditions associated with low to moderate
concentrations of Saharan dust will persist throughout the forecast
period.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 320 AM AST Sun Jun 14 2026

A broad surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic extending
into the Caribbean will maintain breezy to locally windy conditions
through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. Therefore,
there is a moderate risk of rip currents across most beaches of
Puerto Rico, as well as Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Life-threatening rip currents remain possible, and
beachgoers should exercise caution and swim near lifeguards when
available. A low risk of rip currents will continue along the
western beaches of Puerto Rico. However, rip currents can still
occur even when the risk is low, particularly near jetties, piers,
reefs, and other coastal structures. Anyone entering the water
should remain aware of local surf and beach conditions. For
additional beach safety information, visit weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 AM AST Sun Jun 14 2026

The combination of prolonged rainfall deficits, abnormally dry to
moderate drought conditions, increasingly dry fuels, above-
normal temperatures, and breezy east-southeast winds will continue
to support elevated fire danger across portions of Puerto Rico,
particularly the southern coastal plains. Some locations have
received less than 5 percent of normal rainfall in recent weeks,
while KBDI values exceed 600 across much of southern Puerto Rico
and 550 over portions of the western interior, with maxima of 747
at Cabo Rojo and 717 at St. Croix.

Although occasional maritime moisture and local sea-breeze
circulations may provide temporary increases in relative humidity,
no significant wetting rainfall is expected over the next several
days. Consequently, fuels are expected to remain highly receptive
to ignition, and fire weather conditions are likely to persist or
gradually worsen until a more substantial rainfall event occurs.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

EVE...LIS/GRS
MID...ICP