Tornado Warning 23, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
424 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorm chances will persist through the end of
  the week. The greatest coverage is expected from today through
  Friday. Some of the storms could arrive as organized clusters
  with a distinct potential for strong to damaging wind gusts -
  especially today and tonight.

- Instances of excessive rainfall may occur where storms are most
  persistent, leading to elevated concerns for flooding -
  particularly today through Thursday.

- A Flood Watch is now in effect for the northeastern 2/3rds of
  eastern Kentucky until 8 AM EDT on Wednesday, primarily for
  flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 405 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026

At the onset of the forecast period, eastern Kentucky will
continue to find itself in a region of northwest flow aloft,
courtesy of being on the periphery of upper level ridging over the
south central CONUS. This will allow for a number of impulses to
pass through the area, with multiple rounds of showers and storms
possible throughout the period. At the surface, there are few
defined features in our area; on a larger scale, a weak area of
high pressure sits over the southern Appalachians, with a
stationary front associated with an area of low pressure to the
north over the Great Lakes. Additionally, morning convection has
left a highly defined outflow boundary extending across the area,
spanning roughly a line from Bath County to Pike County. Storms
are currently ongoing in the eastern portion of the forecast area,
largely in the vicinity of this boundary; meanwhile, multiple
storm complexes are ongoing across the Midwest. As these complexes
race south southeast towards Kentucky, the risk of flash flooding
and severe wind gusts will increase going into this evening.

Following morning and early afternoon activity, a tight
instability gradient exists across the forecast area, with RAP
guidance indicating extreme surface based CAPE in excess of 5000
J/kg across the relatively untapped southeastern CWA, generally
decreasing to the north and east. This instability gradient could
serve to provide a favorable corridor for MCS propagation in the
coming hours. Ahead of this complex, an environment supportive of
damaging wind gusts will be in place, with DCAPE exceeding 1000
J/kg across the majority of the forecast area. Deep layer shear in
the vicinity of 30 kts will also prove sufficient for continued
organized convection, with the best shear in the northern portion
of the forecast area. In accordance with this environment, the
Storm Prediction Center has maintained an Enhanced (Level 3/5)
Risk for severe weather, driven by a chance for significant wind
gusts for the northern portion of the forecast area. However,
uncertainty still exists regarding the exact track of this ongoing
complex and its associated severe wind risk, especially given
numerous existing boundaries from previous convection.

In addition to the risk of severe weather this evening, flash
flooding will become a concern, especially as the aforementioned
complex passes through the area. With HREF mean PW values
generally in the range of 1.7-1.9 inches this evening
(representing the 80th percentile or higher compared to
climatology), an anomalously moist environment will be in place,
and a deep warm cloud layer will allow any storm to become an
efficient rainmaker. Complicating matters further, some model
soundings show wind profiles favorable for backbuilding through
the period, and many CAMs have picked up on this. Thus, within QPF
output, signals for higher rainfall totals remain through the end
of the short term period (although spatial uncertainty regarding
the most favored corridor for torrential rainfall remains high).
Given this environment, WPC has placed a Moderate (Level 3/4) Risk
for Excessive Rainfall over our northern counties (where
confidence in repeated rounds of rain is higher). Of note, any
rain that does fall tonight will contribute to saturated soils in
the coming days as active weather continues. To address this
trend, a Flood Watch remains in effect for the majority of the
area.

Looking ahead to Wednesday into early Thursday, additional
complexes of storms appear possible as additional shortwave energy
traverses northwest flow aloft. Because the track and intensity
of this activity will depend on how todays convection evolves,
exact impacts or timing remain highly uncertain at this time;
therefore, spread in model QPF remains very high at this time.
However, tonights rain may serve to prime the area for further
flash flooding tomorrow, where a similarly moist environment will
be in place. Accordingly, the WPC has maintained a high end Slight
(Level 2/4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall across the entirety of
the forecast area, owing to low confidence in QPF at this time.
The SPC has also highlighted an additional low end (Marginal,
Level 1/5) risk for severe weather across the forecast area,
driven by the potential for additional damaging wind gusts;
however, this too will remain dependent on how convection evolves
overnight tonight. In short, although the environment through the
end of the period will remain supportive of damaging wind gusts
and flash flooding, the details of these risks will depend on
mesoscale factors that are difficult to predict in advance. For
now, NBM PoPs have been blended with CAMs to capture the chance of
rain in the near term; however, raw NBM output has been
maintained later in the period, where forecast uncertainty
compounds with time.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 424 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026

With a strong ridge across the Gulf of America and parts of the
Southern Mississippi Valley, and a strong upper level low in eastern
Canada. The result will be strong NW to SE flow across the Ohio
Valley, including Kentucky on Thursday - a continuation from the
short term portion of the forecast. With an elongated surface
boundary also set up across the Ohio Valley, this could continue the
pain train of MCS's passing southeast and through the region on
Thursday. In some promising news, the ridge does start to build
northward on Friday, which will push the storm trajectory north a
bit. However, could still impact the northeast portion of the state
during the day. The ridge will continue to build in further as we go
into Saturday, sustaining through Sunday, before it's pushed back
southward during the day Monday as troughing increases along the
Atlantic Coast, reintroducing the same NW to SE flow to the region
again through the rest of the forecast period.

As has been discussed over the past days, with each round of MCSs
that moves through, another round of heavy to torrential rainfall
will occur on increasingly saturated soils - so the flash flood
threat will remain a concern. CAMS have really not been handling
these MCSs well in the short term, both spatially or temporally. And
if the CAMs aren't handling it well, the long-term models are also
not lending much confidence. Friday is also a bit interesting
because the upper level forcing will be lessoning, but the surface
boundary will finally drop southward into the state as a cold front,
which could continue some convection across the region - though
still unclear if there will actually be an MCS or just more
scattered to widespread convection. By Saturday, as ridging takes
further hold and the surface boundary drops farther south of the
state, high pressure should generally be in control. This should
persist into Sunday. The NBM does still have some very low end pops,
mainly along the far eastern side of the state, but don't expect
anything more at this point.

When the pattern begins to set back up with SW flow on Monday into
Tuesday, WPC is also analyzing another cold front shifting southeast
through the state as well, which, if it pans out, would bring yet
another increase in precipitation to the region.

Despite the passage of cold fronts and numerous systems moving
through, overall temperatures are forecast to rather steady-state,
with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Lows will be in the upper
60s and low 70s.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026

This forecast period is going to be very complex and volatile one,
as multiple Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCSs) will move
through eastern KY. Between the larger rounds of showers/storms,
isolated to scattered convection will also be possible. This makes
for a very tricky forecast as things are constantly evolving, and
models are not always initializing well - so confidence in them is
not high. These thunderstorm clusters will advance through the
region from north to south or northeast to southwest. Due to the
wide range of solutions, the forecast still includes some generous
PROB30 groups to cover the threats with more specificity hard to
confidently come by, at this point. Meanwhile, away from any
thunderstorms, winds will be light at less then 10 kts - generally
from the south to southwest. Gusts within a thunderstorm could
easily be variable at 30 kts and substantially higher if the storm
is a severe one or on the leading edge of an organized storm
cluster. There is also a possibility of some low level wind sheer
as we head into the overnight for a few hours at namely KIOB,
KSYM, and KJKL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
069-086>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...FAGAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JMW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
437 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-069-086>088-104-106>120-122045-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Jackson-Knox-
Bell-Harlan-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-
Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
437 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Repeated rounds of thunderstorms can be expected through tonight.
Any of these could produce swaths of heavy rainfall and isolated to
scattered occurrences of flash flooding. The strongest of the storms
may also produce damaging to destructive wind gusts. A brief tornado
cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms are anticipated through Friday.
Locations experiencing multiple storms during the rest of the week
could also see incidents of flash flooding. The strongest storms may
also produce strong to damaging wind gusts.

Thunderstorms are also possible over the weekend and on Monday but
are not expected to be severe or particularly heavy rain producers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

KYZ068-080-085-122045-
Rockcastle-Laurel-Whitley-
437 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A couple of rounds of thunderstorms are anticipated to affect the
area through tonight. Some of these will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall and be capable of causing localized high water
issues. The strongest of the storms may also produce damaging to
destructive wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms are anticipated through Friday.
Locations experiencing multiple storms during the rest of the week
could also see incidents of flash flooding. The strongest storms may
also produce strong to damaging wind gusts.

Thunderstorms are also possible over the weekend and on Monday but
are not expected to be severe or particularly heavy rain producers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

KYZ079-083-084-122045-
Pulaski-Wayne-McCreary-
437 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A couple of rounds of thunderstorms are anticipated to affect the
area through tonight. Some of these will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall and be capable of causing localized high water
issues. The strongest of the storms may also produce damaging wind
gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms are anticipated through Friday.
Locations experiencing multiple storms during the rest of the week
could also see incidents of flash flooding. The strongest storms may
also produce strong to damaging wind gusts.

Thunderstorms are also possible over the weekend and on Monday but
are not expected to be severe or particularly heavy rain producers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

GEERTSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
235 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

KYZ120-111900-
Pike KY-
235 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN PIKE COUNTY THROUGH 300
PM EDT...

At 235 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Paw Paw to near Beaver. Movement was
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Elkhorn City, Rockhouse, Fishtrap Lake, Garden Village, Ashcamp,
Phyllis, Belcher, Fedscreek, Shelbiana, Toonerville, Marrowbone,
Virgie, Paw Paw, Mouthcard, Cedarville, Lookout, and Biggs.

THIS INCLUDES U.S. Highway 23 in Pike County between mile markers 6
and 19.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 PM EDT for
southeastern Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3727 8235 3725 8244 3721 8252 3740 8262
      3742 8260 3744 8260 3746 8210 3745 8209
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 325DEG 19KT 3740 8214 3739 8260

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GEERTSON

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson KY
333 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Mcdowell                37.46N 82.74W
08/11/2026                   Floyd              KY   911 Call Center

            Trees down in powerlines at 122 & Mcdowell
            (10,000 block).

&&

Disinger

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson KY
343 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0123 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Inez                    37.87N 82.53W
08/11/2026                   Martin             KY   911 Call Center

            911 report of trees down in this area, E
            main street, Inez.

&&

Disinger

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson KY
348 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0123 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ESE Stidham           37.88N 82.56W
08/11/2026                   Martin             KY   911 Call Center

            911 report of trees down in the area of W
            Eden Ln, Inez.

&&

Disinger

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson KY
350 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Beauty                  37.84N 82.44W
08/11/2026                   Martin             KY   911 Call Center

            911 report of trees down in the area of
            Beauty rd in Beauty.

&&

Disinger

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected
National Weather Service Jackson KY
356 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0123 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Beauty                  37.84N 82.44W
08/11/2026                   Martin             KY   911 Call Center

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from
            Beauty. 911 report of trees down in the area
            of Beauty rd in Beauty.

&&

Disinger