Flash Flood Warning 55, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
629 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The potential for showers and thunderstorms will persist through
  the end of the week. The greatest coverage is expected through
  tonight. Some of the storms could arrive as organized clusters
  with a possibility for strong to damaging wind gusts.

- Excessive rainfall may occur where storms are most persistent,
  leading to flash flooding.

- A Flood Watch is now in effect for the northeast portion of the
  forecast area through 8 AM EDT Friday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026

The Flood Watch was expanded southwestward to line up with
convection developing into the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 546 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026

Different day, same scenario. West northwest flow aloft persists,
and the remnants of an early MCS are resulting in renewed
convective development after diurnal destabilization. Looks like
100mb mixed layer CAPE around 3.5K J/Kg over the western counties
of the forecast area, with west southwest flow feeding this into
the storms as they approach. Shear looks minimal, but wouldn't
rule out some pulse severe. Bigger concern might be hydro, with PW
near 2" in that high instability. A Flood Watch remains in place
for our far northeast counties, but may need to be extended back
southwest based on the track of upstream storms.

Once this activity wanes, mesoscale models are now suggesting it
could be quieter for a time overnight before another resurgence
along our northeast border toward morning. As in recent days,
forecast confidence is meager. Once that fades, more scattered
activity is possible during the day Friday, especially after
diurnal heating destabilization occurs. Main concern again looks
to be hydro, but pulse strong storms could happen. The focus again
looks to be more toward our northeast counties Friday into Friday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026

The long term period will open amidst building upper level
ridging in the southeastern CONUS, while upper level troughing
will sit over the Northeast. At the surface, a weak warm front
will be lifting northward. Southwesterly to westerly winds on the
warm side of this boundary will help to maintain a highly moist
environment; LREF mean PW values range from 2 inches in the
northeastern forecast area to around 1.8 inches in the southwest,
representing climatologically anomalous moisture generally
exceeding the 90th percentile. Despite ridging attempting to build
in, eastern Kentucky will still find itself on the periphery of
this feature. This could allow for additional convective activity
to affect the eastern portion of the forecast area. Given moist
antecedent conditions and a very favorable environment for
torrential rainfall, any sustained convection could be capable of
producing flash flooding, with a Marginal (Level 1/4) Risk for
Excessive Rainfall in place across the majority of the forecast
area. Furthermore, given ample moisture and increasingly warm
temperatures, apparent temperatures should soar into the upper 90s
or perhaps low triple digits at their peak. As an additional
consequence of this heat and humidity, a highly unstable
environment is expected to build on Saturday afternoon. LREF
output suggests mean MUCAPE of over 3000 J/kg; this would be more
than enough instability to support strong or perhaps severe
convection should storms initiate, although very weak shear in the
range of 10 to 20 kts should limit the threat of highly organized
and long-lived convection. For now, given weak forcing and the
expectation of height rises, PoPs in the range of 20-30% have been
maintained for the eastern portions of the forecast area, with
lower rain chances in our southwest where ridging influence will
be the strongest. That being said, should convection initiate,
isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. Thus, the Storm
Prediction Center has introduced a Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk for
severe thunderstorms for most of the area on Saturday (excluding
our southwestern counties). Regardless, any convection should
cease with the loss of daytime heating.

Sunday should bring drier weather, although things wont stay dry
for long. Additional ridging building aloft will make Sunday the
hottest day of the week, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s
across the forecast area. Given continued humidity, more
widespread triple digit apparent temperatures may be possible
Sunday afternoon; current LREF output suggests over a 30 percent
chance of exceeding a 100 degree apparent temperature for the
northern portions of our forecast area by only 2 PM on Sunday.
Thankfully, this heat will be short lived. Additional upper level
troughing will be digging into the Great Lakes region by Sunday
afternoon, and a shortwave rotating through the base of this
trough should work to flatten the upper level ridge somewhat by
Sunday night. Meanwhile, a surface low will be located near
Michigan, with a cold front extending to the southwest. As the
system translates eastward, this front will approach Kentucky by
early Monday morning, bringing the next round of rain. As in
previous days, moisture will be quite high (with westerly flow
supporting PW values generally in the range of 1.8-1.9 inches,
approximately the 90th percentile), and at least isolated
instances of flash flooding will be possible. Thus, WPC has placed
the northern and eastern portions of the forecast area in a
Marginal (Level 1/4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall on Monday. The
magnitude of the flash flood risk will remain fairly dependent on
how saturated soils are going into the event, in addition to the
timing of this frontal passage (which itself will modulate how
widespread any convection is); therefore, uncertainty remains
high. Regardless, rain appears likely on Monday.

Following the frontal passage, temperatures will be much more
tolerable. With less influence from the upper level ridge, MaxTs
will generally range from the mid to upper 80s across the forecast
area, with the hottest temperatures expected to the southwest.
Moisture will be noticeably lower too, with dewpoints generally
falling into the upper 60s across the forecast area. That being
said, the general pattern will still be fairly active. Upper level
troughing over the Great Lakes will persist, while ridging will
dominate across the southern CONUS, with models generally
depicting the ridge axis in the Four Corners region or slightly
farther east in western Texas. This will place eastern Kentucky in
a region of either quasi zonal or northwest flow aloft, depending
on which model you believe; either way, this will open the door
for additional rain chances through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026

Dry weather had returned to the area at the start of the period,
but MVFR ceilings still lingered in some places, mainly around
KSYM, KJKL, KPBX, and points northeastward. Those MVFR ceilings
should be rising and generally scattering out this afternoon.
However, scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop as
heating and destabilization occurs. Where and when they occur is
very uncertain. The threat will last into the night, with the
remnant of a thunderstorm complex currently over IL possibly
spurring on the activity as it moves southeast. Fog will probably
affect some locations again overnight and early in the morning,
with favored locations being valleys and in places where rain
falls tonight. The thunderstorms and fog would result in localized
IFR or worse conditions. Outside of that, mainly VFR is forecast
from late today into Friday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
104-106>113-119-120.

&&

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...HAL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
632 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106>113-119-120-141100-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Elliott-Morgan-
Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Martin-Pike-
632 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible, and could bring locally heavy rainfall
which results in flash flooding. The most intense storms may also
produce isolated strong to damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times Friday through Saturday, and also
Sunday night through Tuesday. Locations where thunderstorms are the
most frequent or persistent could have localized flash flooding. The
most intense storms on Friday and Saturday could also produce strong
to damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report any occurrences of flooding or wind
damage.

KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-114>118-141100-
Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-
Harlan-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-
632 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible, and could bring locally heavy rainfall
which results in isolated flash flooding. The most intense storms
may also produce isolated strong to damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Most locations have a possibility of thunderstorms at times Friday
through Saturday, and also Sunday night through Tuesday. Locations
where thunderstorms are the most frequent or persistent could have
localized flash flooding. The most intense storms on Friday and
Saturday could also produce strong to damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report any occurrences of flooding or wind
damage.

HAL

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