Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Jackson, KY

307 
WGUS73 KJKL 070342
FFSJKL

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1142 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

KYC095-070352-
/O.CAN.KJKL.FF.W.0039.000000T0000Z-260807T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harlan KY-
1142 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL HARLAN COUNTY...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3688 8314 3684 8308 3683 8310 3682 8310
      3681 8310 3679 8312 3678 8313 3676 8313
      3674 8314 3674 8320 3673 8322 3679 8321

$$

CMC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
825 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The risk of showers and thunderstorms will persist for the next
  week, with the greatest coverage for the area as a whole on
  Friday-Saturday and Tuesday-Thursday.

- Isolated heavy rainfall may occur where thunderstorms are most
  persistent through Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 510 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026

Near-term forecast grids were updated with the latest observational
data across the area, blending recent trends into the T/Td
fields. Additional edits were made to the PoP and Wx grids to
account for shower and thunderstorm activity developing along a
weak boundary across the Bluegrass region and adjacent areas to
the east. No other changes were necessary for the near-term
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 357 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026

A mostly to partly sunny early August afternoon is unfolding
across eastern Kentucky with a few backyard-variety showers and
thunderstorms, primarily over the higher terrain closer to TN and
VA and over the Bluegrass. Temperatures range from the mid to
upper 80s, while dew points in the low to mid 70s support heat
indices in the 90s. The surface weather map is quite benign, with
little discernible in the way of surface forcing features except
for perhaps a subtle wind shift over the Bluegrass and central
Kentucky. Convection further east is likely supported by
differential heating over rugged terrain. The latest mesoanalysis
shows 1,000 to 2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE but minimal shear - supportive
of just ordinary pulse thunderstorms. Looking upstream, broad
troughing extends across the northern tier of the CONUS from
Montana to New England, reaching its trough base over the Mid-
Mississippi Valley with an embedded 500 hPa vort max.

Through the short-term period, the broad trough will slowly
migrate eastward, with pieces of subtle vort energy crossing
northern portions of the CWA later tonight and Friday. The most
substantial of those vort maxes, situated in the base of the
trough, will approach the JKL CWA from the west late Friday
night. Ongoing convection will remain strongly diurnally
modulated and pulsy this evening, dissipating with the loss of
diurnal heating and lack of other forcing. A stray shower or
rumble of thunder cannot be entirely ruled out late tonight, as
modest elevated instability remains while the first subtle vort
perturbation skirts the I-64 corridor. On Friday, convection is
favored to redevelop over the southeastern high terrain near the
VA/KY border thanks to differential heating. Meanwhile, a second
subtle perturbation passing near/north of the Lower Ohio River
could spark additional convection, especially near and north of
the I-64 corridor. There will be a better chance for at least
isolated to scattered convection persisting through Friday night
as the third and most substantive vort max of the period
approaches with the 500 hPa trough axis. Similar to recent days,
we will remain under a weak shear and moderate CAPE environment
with seasonably high PWATs, slow storm motion, and weak Corfidi
upshear vectors, so there is at least some risk for locally heavy
rainfall. Accordingly, WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk ERO for
the entire short-term period. Also, while a gusty shower or storm
cannot be ruled out today, the parameter space will be slightly
more favorable for downburst winds Friday afternoon near and north
of the I-64 corridor, where DCAPE and 0-3 km Theta-E difference
values will be marginally favorable for stronger downdrafts in an
environment with EBWD strong enough to support some multicell
organization.

In sensible weather terms, look for seasonably warm and humid
August conditions to continue, with highs in the mid 80s for most
while nighttime lows dip into the mid 60s to around 70F. Showers
and thunderstorms will follow a diurnal cycle, with greatest
coverage in the afternoon and evening and least overnight into
early morning. Any isolated to scattered activity this evening
will tend to be more focused along the I-64 corridor and near
the VA/KY border, with lesser coverage in between. Aside from a
rogue shower or storm, it should be mostly dry overnight and early
Friday morning, with fog once again probable through the river
valleys. Additional shower and thunderstorm development can be
expected Friday afternoon and evening, again most numerous near
the KY/VA border and near the I-64 corridor. Storms in the north
Friday afternoon have a better chance of producing gusty winds.
Convection then diminishes again Friday night with the loss of
daytime heating, though isolated to scattered activity will still
be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 544 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are still expected
across Eastern Kentucky on Saturday, when broad mid/upper level
troughing will remain in place over the Greater Ohio River Valley. A
shortwave disturbance is still progged to propagate around the base
of that trough during the initial stages of the forecast period,
although it is notably quicker and less amplified than it was in
previous model runs. The effects of those changes are twofold.
First, there will probably be ongoing isolated to scattered
convection when the period opens on Saturday morning. This
introduces the potential for leftover cloud debris to decrease the
magnitude of diurnal warming/destabilization, which, in turn, could
limit the intensity of any activity that tries to develop later that
afternoon/evening. Saturday morning has entered the temporal range
of the 12z CAM runs, and many of those higher-resolution, convection-
allowing models support the idea that the PM convection will be
weaker. A few models still try and develop afternoon/evening
activity in SE KY, which is notably where the blended baseline
guidance resolves the highest PoPs (55-75%). However, the convective
parameter spacing appears marginal at best, with poor CAPE/shear
balance and poor lapse rates. This is the second effect of the less-
amplified shortwave; storms are less likely to get organized and
sustain themselves for longer periods of time. Severe storms appear
unlikely on Saturday if these changes persist into future model
runs.

Model soundings do resolve between 1.7 and 1.9 inches of
precipitable water in the atmospheric column over the forecast area
on Saturday afternoon, along with freezing levels around 15kft and
cloud-layer winds below 10 knots. If sufficient destabilization is
realized and additional showers/storms develop across Eastern
Kentucky on Saturday afternoon/evening, they will likely be
efficient rainmakers and slow movers. Given the potential for
localized pockets of already-wet soils from the activity described
in the short term forecast period, Saturday's rainfall could once
again prove excessive. The related flash flood risk is shrouded in
the uncertainty though. The residual impacts of any AM activity
and the evolution of the parent shortwave will determine whether or
not such a risk actually materializes. WPC has maintained a broad-
brushed Marginal (Level 1/4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook for the
entire JKL CWA on Saturday, but widespread flash flooding is not
currently anticipated. Isolated instances cannot be ruled out in any
locales that experience particularly persistent downpours or
multiple rounds of torrential rainfall, as is typical during late
summer in Eastern Kentucky. Interests in flood-prone places are
encouraged to remain weather aware on Saturday, just in case.

Another change in this morning's forecast guidance suite is the
potential for yet another round of summertime showers/storms in
Eastern Kentucky on Sunday. Both the GFS and the ECMWF had a QPF
signal across portions of the CWA on Sunday afternoon in this
morning's 12z data. It is intriguing that both deterministic models
and their respective ensemble counterparts still resolve midlevel
height rises in this same time frame. The troughing responsible for
the early-weekend activity is progged to lift further to the
northeast throughout the day on Sunday while ridging strengthens
over the south-central CONUS. Those synoptic shifts place eastern KY
within a regime of quasi-zonal flow aloft early next week. The
related subsidence and midlevel dry air advection would reprieve our
area from the recent repetitive marginal excessive rainfall risks.
Thus, any convective activity that does occur in the Sunday-Monday
time frame will likely be of the garden variety (sub-severe). It is
plausible for future NBM baseline data to introduce isolated to
scattered type PoPs to Sunday's forecast grids, so that will be a
period to monitor for future adjustments.

The attention then turns towards a series of ridge-riding shortwave
impulses approaching the forecast area between Tuesday and Thursday.
The presence of these disturbances in the coarse long term guidance
causes scattered to numerous PoPs to reenter the forecast by
midweek, and pattern recognition suggests that next week's
convection could take the form of MCSes moving through the Ohio
River Valley. While SPC notes that predictability is low in such a
setup, the available medium-range machine learning models and analog-
based convective guidance both suggest that a damaging wind gust
could materialize within any MCS that moves through the forecast
area during peak diurnal heating next week. The arrival time of
those disturbances will play a role in determining the intensity of
next week's storms, but increasing model spread makes it impossible
to pinpoint those details at the current temporal range.
Nevertheless, the long term forecast period looks to end on an
active note, and interests are encouraged to monitor for updates in
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have tapered off across the I-64
corridor but continue along the KY/VA and KY/TN borders. Winds
will generally remain southwesterly at less than 10 kt. Fog is
expected to redevelop this evening, favoring areas that clear out
and where rain occurred this afternoon and evening, though
coverage should be less widespread compared to last night.

Another round of showers and storms is expected to develop Friday,
initially across the I-64 corridor in the morning, followed by
additional areas along the KY/TN and KY/VA borders as the
afternoon progresses. Storms that develop along the I-64 corridor
carry a greater potential for producing gusty and erratic winds.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GINNICK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
359 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-072000-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
359 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the evening hours. They
may bring about isolated instances of heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times. They could bring isolated
instances of heavy rainfall, mainly Friday and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GEERTSON/MARCUS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
713 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

KYZ084-085-062330-
McCreary KY-Whitley KY-
713 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN MCCREARY AND
NORTHWESTERN WHITLEY COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

At 713 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Duckrun, or near Whitley City, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Williamsburg, Bon, Honeybee, Duckrun, Beulah Heights, Cumberland
Falls S.P., Redbird, Clio, Goldbug, Jellico Creek, Krupp, Bounty,
Hollyhill, Youngs Creek, and Liberty.

THIS INCLUDES Interstate 75 in east central Kentucky between mile
markers 10 and 16.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3679 8450 3695 8433 3695 8429 3673 8410
      3664 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 232DEG 8KT 3677 8437

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CMC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
725 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

KYZ080-116-062345-
Clay KY-Laurel KY-
725 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LAUREL AND WEST CENTRAL
CLAY COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

At 725 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Maplesville, or near London. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
London, East Bernstadt, Maplesville, Fariston, Pittsburg, Langnau,
Levi Jackson S.P., Hare, Mcwhorter, Atlanta, Carmichael, Sublimity
City, Crawford, Greenmount, London-Corbin Airport, Deer Lick,
Portersburg, and Brock.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Hal Rogers Parkway between mile markers 1 and 9.
 Interstate 75 in east central Kentucky between mile markers 35 and
46.
 Kentucky Highway 80 in Laurel County between mile markers 9 and 11.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3722 8418 3726 8403 3725 8395 3713 8389
      3705 8410
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 118DEG 3KT 3717 8404

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CMC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
734 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

KYZ079-080-084-085-062345-
McCreary KY-Whitley KY-Laurel KY-Pulaski KY-
734 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LAUREL...
SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI...NORTHEASTERN MCCREARY AND NORTHWESTERN WHITLEY
COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

At 734 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Honeybee, or 11 miles north of Whitley City. These
storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Whitley City, Honeybee, Marshes Siding, Holly Bay Rec. Area,
Greenwood, Sloans Valley, Duckrun, Parkers Lake, Beulah Heights,
Alpine, Cumberland Falls S.P., Redbird, Grove, Huxley, Deering,
Krupp, Bounty, Youngs Creek, Vox, and Wiborg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3672 8421 3672 8448 3699 8457 3699 8419
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 179DEG 3KT 3688 8441

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CMC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
816 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

KYZ119-070030-
Martin KY-
816 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MARTIN COUNTY THROUGH 830
PM EDT...

At 816 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Inez. These storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and torrential rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Inez, Warfield, Beauty, Add, Tomahawk, Pilgrim, Coalpoint, Davella,
Hode, Prince, Calf Creek, Delong, Milo, Lovely, Job, Preece,
Bradbury, Debord, Oppy, and Davisport.

THIS INCLUDES Kentucky Highway 3 in Martin County between mile
markers 4 and 9.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3777 8238 3778 8264 3787 8263 3789 8260
      3792 8260 3793 8258 3795 8258 3796 8253
      3794 8249 3794 8250 3790 8247 3791 8247
      3788 8242 3781 8240 3782 8239 3779 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 270DEG 3KT 3785 8253

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CMC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
820 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

KYZ079-083-070045-
Wayne KY-Pulaski KY-
820 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WAYNE AND
SOUTHWESTERN PULASKI COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT...

At 819 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Naomi, or 10 miles north of Monticello. These
storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Somerset, Science Hill, Naomi, Betsey, Frazer, Pulaski County Park,
Nancy, Kidder, Pointer, Mill Springs, Faubush, and Trimble.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Kentucky Highway 80 in Pulaski County between mile markers 17 and
20.
 Louis B. Nunn Parkway

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near Lake Cumberland, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3696 8492 3695 8490 3700 8484 3705 8491
      3709 8491 3712 8490 3718 8460 3687 8464
      3695 8494 3696 8494
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 160DEG 1KT 3699 8484

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CMC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
843 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

KYZ079-083-084-070115-
McCreary KY-Wayne KY-Pulaski KY-
843 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WAYNE...PULASKI AND
NORTH CENTRAL MCCREARY COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

At 843 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over central and southern Pulaski County, or near
Somerset. These storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and torrential rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Somerset, Science Hill, Burnside, Cains Store, Stab, Sloans Valley,
Bobtown, Nancy, Pointer, Bronston, Mount Victory, Dabney, Valley Oak,
Pulaski County Park, Somerset Pulaski Airport, Kidder, Hogue, Magnum,
Naomi, and Grade.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Kentucky Highway 80 in Pulaski County between mile markers 17 and
36.
 Louis B. Nunn Parkway

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3696 8494 3696 8492 3695 8490 3700 8484
      3705 8491 3712 8490 3726 8469 3724 8439
      3721 8435 3688 8439 3692 8496
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 145DEG 1KT 3710 8472

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CMC