Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
956 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will be prevalent through early
  Sunday, followed by much lower probabilities during most of the
  work week. Heavy rain may lead to flash flooding.

- Heat and humidity will become oppressive during the new week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026

Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are finally making a move into
the JKL fcst area from the west, with a threat of flash flooding.
Have adjusted POPs for the latest radar trends, and also raised
thunder potential where storms are moving in.

UPDATE Issued at 740 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
and the current radar and CAMs guidance for the near term PoP and
thunder grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD
and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFS, and
zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows low pressure nosing into the region, just
north of the Ohio River, along its wavy front. This remains the
focus for the development of organized clusters of showers and
thunderstorms. The latest round of these are weakening as they
exit eastern Kentucky, however, the next batch up are currently
strengthening to the west over central Kentucky as evidenced by
the cooling cloud tops on IR. For the most part the rains of
Friday and last evening have primed a good portion of the area -
especially along and north of I-64 (as captured by the Bath County
mesonet site with nearly 3 inches of rain reported for the past 24
hours) for potential flood problems from any additional showers
and storms arriving later this morning. Meanwhile, in this very
humid environment, temperatures and dewpoints currently are
running in the upper 60s to lower 70s, amid light and variable
winds. In addition, there are areas of fog out there between the
showers and storms.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in pretty
good agreement aloft with the longwave pattern through the short
term portion of the forecast. They all depict zonal mid-level
flow taking on a northwesterly tilt by the end of the weekend as
5h ridging builds over the central Gulf Coast. This burgeoning
ridge will be the source for a heat dome that envelops Kentucky
and the region during the upcoming work week. For now, though, it
will merely provide a glide path for additional impulses and minor
waves - some convectively induced - to roll over the JKL CWA in
the short term. The next wave up on this conveyor slides east
through the state during the day before that northwest tilt brings
another in from Indiana later tonight - departing south into
Tennessee by midday Sunday. 5h height rises and overall subsidence
then follows into Sunday evening. Given the good agreement among
the models, the NBM was used as the starting point for the grids
with little adjustment needed aside from CAMs guidance
incorporated into the PoPs and QPF grids through Sunday morning.
Again, terrain details were limited considering the high moisture
content.

Sensible weather features one round after another of convection
lasting into the evening, at least, with likely some lulls in
between lasting several hours. The rounds today will hit most of
the area while those that linger tonight and into Sunday will
favor the southern parts of eastern Kentucky. For this reason the
Flash Flood Watch has been split up to remain in effect longer for
the southern zones of our responsibility and even that may not be
long enough judging by the 06Z HRRR run that continues to bring
heavy rain to the Lake Cumberland area into the daylight hours of
Sunday. High PW (near record) air in place will give any
convection the potential for torrential rains and localized flash
flooding until this air mass departs late in the weekend.
Temperatures will be warm both today and Sunday - though today's
highs will be capped by the amount of clouds and convection
around. In addition to the flood concerns, the organized nature to
the storm clusters - especially those occurring near peak heating
and instability - will also yield a threat mainly consisting of
strong to damaging wind gusts primarily into this evening.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to fine tune
the PoPs and QPF per the latest consensus CAM guidance through
Sunday. Did not need to adjust the temps or dewpoints for terrain
or dry air mix down considering the high humidity air mass
currently over the region.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 115 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026

The long term period opens Sunday night with the area transitioning
from a fairly active pattern, into a quiet yet hot one through next
week. Analyzing modeled 500-mb heights, high pressure remains
positioned over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, with the ridge
axis extending further north, through the Upper Great Lakes and into
Southern Ontario. Farther upstream to the west, a large scale trough
positioned over the Intermountain West, features a few disturbances
over the Northern Great Basin.

Across Eastern Kentucky, isolated to scattered storm activity may
last through Sunday night through Monday afternoon, as a stationary
front just north of the forecast area, retrogrades back west as a
cold front from being on the lee side of the ridge axis. These
generally remain under a 25% of occurrence, located in the Upper
Cumberland or southern portions of the Kentucky River Basins. With
high pressure juxtaposed near Kentucky, storm chances remain very
isolated Tuesday and Wednesday Scattered to widespread storm
chances return towards the end of the week (Thursday and beyond),
with shortwaves modeled to eject out of the western trough towards
the Ohio Valley. The return of active weather looks plausible
heading into the nation's 250th anniversary of independence.

Temperatures will generally warm into the low to mid 90s during the
afternoons and cool into the upper 60s to lower 70s at night through
the extended period. Models depict dewpoints remaining elevated in
the upper 60s to mid 70s next week, leading to hot and muggy
conditions. Heat indices of 100-105F remain possible Monday trough
Friday next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026

At issuance time, another robust wave of convection is working
into eastern Kentucky. As a result, a mix of aviation conditions
were reported across the region at issuance time. Periods of
MVFR/IFR reductions and the potential for thunder on station will
continue to plague much of the area through the rest of the
morning. Some tempo and PROB30 groups were used for this and
additional rounds of convection should occur after 16Z, as well.
Overall, showers/thunderstorms will be a possibility throughout
the period, but there remains rather low confidence in
timing/location, especially from 16Z onward and this continues to
preclude using more specificity than PROB30 in the TAFs. Away
from any storms, winds will be light and variable through mid
morning before picking up from the southwest at 5 to 10 kts into
the afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050>052-059-
060-104-106.

Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ058-068-069-079-080-
083>088-107>120.

&&

UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GREIF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
335 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

KYZ044-050>052-059-060-104-106-280745-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Powell-Menifee-Elliott-Morgan-
335 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to some
locations into the evening. The heavy rainfall could result in
localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a small chance for thunderstorms each day from Sunday
through Friday.

Maximum afternoon heat indices may top 100 in some places Sunday
through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report any occurrences of flooding or wind
damage through this evening.

KYZ058-068-069-079-080-083>088-107>120-280745-
Estill-Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-
Bell-Harlan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-
Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
335 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to some
locations into the night. The heavy rainfall could result in
localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a small chance for thunderstorms each day from Sunday
through Friday.

Maximum afternoon heat indices may top 100 in some places Sunday
through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report any occurrences of flooding or wind
damage through tonight.

JKL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
911 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

KYZ058-068-069-271400-
Jackson KY-Estill KY-Rockcastle KY-
911 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ESTILL...JACKSON AND
NORTHEASTERN ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 AM EDT...

At 911 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Shirley, or 11 miles northwest of McKee, moving
east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
McKee, Boone, Morrill, Threelinks, Turkey Foot, Kerby Knob, Maulden,
Mummie, Waneta, Privett, Bradshaw, Elian, Clover Bottom, Jinks,
Climax, Disputanta, Brazil, Hurley, Shirley, and Leighton.

THIS INCLUDES Interstate 75 in east central Kentucky between mile
markers 68 and 72.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3747 8438 3754 8435 3753 8430 3752 8430
      3751 8426 3752 8420 3756 8416 3756 8409
      3763 8412 3761 8386 3754 8391 3752 8389
      3748 8389 3740 8382 3734 8383 3748 8445
TIME...MOT...LOC 1311Z 280DEG 23KT 3753 8416

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GREIF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
957 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

KYZ069-111-114-116-271430-
Jackson KY-Lee KY-Clay KY-Owsley KY-
957 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT OWSLEY...JACKSON...SOUTHERN LEE
AND NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 AM EDT...

At 956 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Turkey Foot, or near McKee, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Torrential rainfall and wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
McKee, Booneville, Turin, Carico, Travellers Rest, Blake, Grace,
Southfork, Zekes Point, Grass, Maulden, Shop Branch, Treadway,
Fogertown, Mummie, Tyner, Chestnut Gap, Earnestville, Privett, and
Bradshaw.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3716 8383 3723 8394 3725 8394 3725 8398
      3735 8414 3736 8413 3738 8417 3756 8393
      3754 8391 3756 8389 3753 8357 3751 8358
      3749 8357
TIME...MOT...LOC 1356Z 285DEG 18KT 3744 8392

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MARCUS

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