Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
151 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Severe Thunderstorm & Flood Risk this Afternoon & Tonight. Mainly
Along and North of the I-10 Corridor. Hazards: Damaging Wind 40-60
mph, Localized Flash Flooding, and Frequent Lightning

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Northeast Florida Beaches Today

- Heat Index near 107 This Afternoon

- Daily Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms This Coming Week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Highlights Through Tonight:

- Severe Thunderstorm and Flooding Risk this Afternoon &
  Evening

Ahead of an incoming cold front that will bring potential for severe
weather later this afternoon through the late evening, we will see
scattered to numerous diurnally driven showers and storms across the
area. With westerly winds, the two sea breezes will collide closer
to the east coast, enhancing convective coverage near I-95 this
afternoon. Plenty of instability and moisture present will pose a
threat for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly from
boundary collisions, causing gusty winds. In addition, we will see a
localized flooding threat primarily for the northeast Florida and
southeast Georgia coasts, but also later on tonight for inland
southeast Georgia. Urban and other typical flood prone areas will be
more at risk for flooding today.

Outside of the east coast afternoon/evening summertime storms, a
front will sink southward this evening, prompting additional
thunderstorm activity, over southeast Georgia. This area is under a
Marginal to Slight risk of severe storms, with damaging winds as the
primary hazard. Overall, storms will begin to fizzle out around
midnight, with some lingering showers and isolated storms possible
through the night as the front stalls near the Florida/Georgia
border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Localized Flooding Rain Threat

- Daily Thunderstorms Chances

The weak cold front will be over central or northern parts of the
forecast area Monday morning, but is expected to gradually shift
southward to north central FL by Tuesday. On Monday, should see weak
north-northeast sfc flow over inland southeast GA, but southwest
or variable/east sfc flow for northeast FL. Aloft, the tail end
of a mid level trough will push through the area Monday, followed by
northeast mid level flow on Tuesday as a high pressure center in
the mid levels moves into the TN valley area. No shortage of
moisture with PWAT of about 2.2 inches is noted for Monday, and due
to the proximity of the front, will lead to high shower/storm
coverage, at least numerous. However, more scattered activity
expected northwest of Alma GA. MLCAPE ranging from 2000-2500 J/kg
over the region and sea breezes/outflow boundaries will be present.
This should promote locally heavy rainfall and some local flooding
threat mainly the srn 2/3rds of the area. Some convective activity
will linger during the overnight hours Monday night, with the best
chances probably over the marine waters and the immediate coast. As
the west-east oriented front and associated troughiness begin to
slip southward Tuesday, low level flow becomes increasingly
northeast and east. Convergent onshore flow coupled with high
airmass moisture content (PWATs 2.1 inches) will result in coastal
convection that shifts gradually inland during the midday and
afternoon hours. Still a localized flooding rainfall threat, but
perhaps not quite as high as Monday's forecast. Coverage will at
least be numerous during the day, with some isolated shower activity
overnight into early Wednesday morning near the coastal areas.

Currently, total rainfall amounts we are forecasting ranges from
0.50 to about 1.25 inches, but can see potential for localized 4+
inches.

With the cold front making its way across the area, slightly cooler
temperatures will develop from north to south. On Monday, SE GA
locations will likely top out in the upper 80s, while NE FL will be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s. By Tuesday, highs in the mid to upper
80s will develop behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily Thunderstorms Chances

The weak frontal boundary mentioned in the short term period may be
stalled over north central FL early Wednesday and then becomes more
diffuse and ill-efined by Thursday as low level shifts from easterly
to southeasterly to south to southwest on Thursday. This is due to
the mean layer high over the NC outer banks moving eastward into the
Atlantic and mid to upper level trough moving into the eastern U.S.
Guidance suggests another cold front will push towards the area by
the upcoming weekend by not moving into the southeast GA zones by
Saturday. Thus will continue to see deep and moist southwest flow
Thursday through Saturday continuing a chance of showers and storms
each day.

Fairly high coverage of showers and storms (up to 60-70 percent
coverage) on Wednesday, especially inland areas, looks to fall
slightly to the scattered to numerous range (or about 45-65 percent)
Thursday through Saturday.

Temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Outside of convection and showers, VFR conditions are forecast
today. Showers and storms will pick up for the area this afternoon
and evening, with impacts likely from around 20-01Z. Another round
of storms will enter southeast Georgia associated with a front, with
impacts to SSI lasting through around 02-03Z. Vicinity showers/light
rain will be possible for most of the sites through at least 06Z,
with potential for MVFR ceilings/mist closer to sunrise. Winds will
be variable overnight as the front moves south towards the state
border.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will continue south of the local waters today as a
front approaches from the northeast. Strong thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon and evening as the front approaches. The
front will stall across north Florida Monday, then shifts south of
the waters Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure strengthens to
the northeast. A brief period of Small Craft Exercise Caution
conditions is possible mainly over the Georgia waters Tuesday as a
coastal trough develops offshore. The coastal trough weakens
Wednesday into Thursday. Friday into Saturday, high pressure extends
across south Florida with a return of westerly winds and the
afternoon east coast sea breeze nearshore.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk increases from north to south Monday
as onshore flow develops with moderate risk likely for all local
beaches. By Tuesday, solid moderate to possibly high rip current due
to stronger and more persistent ENE onshore winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Patchy Low Dispersions Northeast Florida On Monday

West to southwest winds continue rest of today except for an east
coast sea breeze for eastern zones. Expect isolated showers and
thunderstorms at 2 PM to expand in coverage to numerous by late in
the afternoon through the late evening hours. A risk for stronger to
severe storms is forecast from about 3 PM to 11 PM across
southeast Georgia to near Interstate 10 as a weak front approaches.
In addition, a slight risk of excessive rainfall is forecast
mainly for southeast GA late this afternoon through late
evening.

The front is expected to shift southward across northeast Florida
Monday through Monday night. Low daytime dispersion expected Monday
and possibly Tuesday due to more cloudiness and elevated rain
chances. Surface winds and transport winds will transition to
northeast to east behind of the front on Tuesday with elevated
rain chances expected again.

Fog Potential: Gusty and erratic winds will occur with thunderstorm
activity. Patchy inland morning fog possible each day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Coastal water levels begin to increase next week with the approach
of the New Moon on Sept 11th and breezy onshore easterly winds late
Monday through Wednesday, with the peak winds across the local
waters and coast Tuesday. At this time, extended probabilistic
guidance keeps water levels below action stage late Tuesday through
Wednesday both along the local Atlantic coast and within the St.
Johns River basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  87  72  86 /  60  80  30  60
SSI  76  86  76  86 /  40  80  80  80
JAX  74  88  73  87 /  60  90  50  80
SGJ  75  87  74  86 /  40  80  60  70
GNV  74  89  72  88 /  40  90  40  80
OCF  74  89  73  89 /  30  80  30  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

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