Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
234 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - There is a marginal risk for severe storms from late tonight
    into Sunday.

  - Additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are
    probable, primarily from mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Remnant MCS activity continues to move into the ArkLaMiss region
early this morning, though it is generally weakening in intensity.
However, some upscale growth cannot be ruled out through the
morning hours. As a result, the Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms remains in place through sunrise Sunday for
southeast Arkansas and northeast Louisiana and far southwest
Mississippi, with that threat expanding eastward into Mississippi
after daybreak. Convective redevelopment could take place during
peak heating along a NW-SE oriented moist convergence axis that
corresponds with more favorable instability/shear. With that said,
we'll keep the mention of a marginal risk for severe storms and
monitor closely for any changes in the late night to Sunday
environment.

For Monday into Monday night, indications continue to be that
favorable ascent and an increasingly robust severe weather threat
will be mainly to our north in mid MS Valley where the exit region
of a powerful upper level jet will juxtapose a very unstable warm
sector and support a favorable environment for all modes of severe
weather. For the bulk of our area, anticyclonic branch up the
upper jet should help to enhance the capping inversion and help to
keep deep convective potential mainly north of the Hwy 82 corridor
as we go through late Mon into Monday evening. We are keeping the
marginal risk going for northern portions of our area, and will wait
to see short term trends with how convection may evolve as nightfall
and the intensifying nocturnal low level jet help to promote some
southward propagation of storms.

Late Tuesday through Tuesday night, as of now, this appears to be
the time frame for our main severe weather concern during this
forecast. Very favorable jet dynamics will combine with a west-
east frontal zone and very steep lapse rates to set the stage for
what could be a volatile severe weather set-up in portions of the
Lower MS Valley region. As of now, this most favorable west-east
zone looks to set up along/north of the I-20 corridor and will
follow SPC day 4 outlook concerning this, but confidence is shaky
regarding just where it will set up, so folks with interests in
this area should pay close attention to updates. It appears timing
wise that this will mainly be a late Tue to overnight event, possibly
lingering into early Wed morning, and it should be mentioned that
we will need to monitor for flash flooding potential given the
potential for convective training with west/southwest low to mid
level flow juxtaposed with the boundary.

Wed through Fri night - another wave or two will likely impact our
area in association with the continued active subtropical stream,
however, as is often the case this time of year, the mesoscale influences
and degree of convective overturning will have lot to say with how
quickly the airmass can recover for additional severe and flash
flooding threats. Confidence is there quite low with forecast
details. /EC/86/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

VFR conditions prevail to start the TAF period for much of the
area though ceilings are beginning to lower at HEZ. Low stratus
and patchy BR or FG could continue to develop in southern portions
of the area through 13Z if storms do not disrupt this
development. MVFR to LIFR ceilings are expected before 15Z
improvement to VFR once again. Timing of SHRA and TSRA was
uncertain, but has been included in TAFs where confidence exists. /NF/86/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       84  66  90  69 /  60  20  10  20
Meridian      84  63  89  65 /  40  20  10  20
Vicksburg     85  68  91  69 /  60  20  10  20
Hattiesburg   87  65  90  67 /  50  20  10  10
Natchez       87  68  91  69 /  50  20  10  10
Greenville    82  68  89  70 /  50  30  20  60
Greenwood     84  67  90  69 /  40  30  20  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

LP/EC/NF

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
327 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

LAZ007-015-260930-
Richland LA-Morehouse LA-
327 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MOREHOUSE AND NORTHWESTERN
RICHLAND PARISHES THROUGH 430 AM CDT...

At 326 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Sterlington, or 11 miles west of Bastrop, moving
southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bastrop around 330 AM CDT.
  Collinston around 345 AM CDT.
  Oak Ridge around 355 AM CDT.
  Rayville and Start around 405 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3301 9207 3301 9165 3255 9169 3241 9182
      3242 9197 3252 9190 3260 9193 3266 9191
      3266 9194 3271 9197 3270 9202 3271 9204
      3270 9204 3269 9205 3271 9206 3280 9205
      3282 9207 3284 9206 3287 9208 3297 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 0826Z 315DEG 31KT 3283 9211

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

86

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
329 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

LAZ008-009-015-016-MSZ040>043-047-048-053-260930-
Richland LA-Madison LA-East Carroll LA-West Carroll LA-Sharkey MS-
Warren MS-Hinds MS-Yazoo MS-Madison MS-Issaquena MS-Claiborne MS-
329 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CARROLL...MADISON...
NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND AND SOUTHERN WEST CARROLL PARISHES...WARREN...
NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE...SOUTHWESTERN YAZOO...HINDS...SOUTHERN
ISSAQUENA...SOUTHWESTERN SHARKEY AND SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES
THROUGH 430 AM CDT...

At 329 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mansford, or near Tallulah, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Eagle Bend around 410 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Delta and Richmond.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3289 9142 3245 9019 3205 9051 3205 9060
      3252 9169
TIME...MOT...LOC 0829Z 289DEG 6KT 3244 9115

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KP