Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
311 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Severe thunderstorms remain possible across the area this
    afternoon into tonight.

  - Additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms will be
    possible into the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

In addition to today's unfolding weather event, strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible at times through at least the middle
of this week as a springtime severe pattern remains active in the
Southern Plains.

An overnight MCS spilling out of the High Plains and Ozarks still
remains a focus for ongoing showers and storms in our region this
afternoon. It lost a little of its overnight momentum, but new
storms organizing along the outflow boundary have access to an
unstable air mass along the southern flank of the MCS. Latest RAP
Mesoanalysis showed 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE from southwest AR and
northern LA southeast through the Pine Belt in southeast MS. A north-
south axis of deeper moisture (PWATs of 1.5+ inches) intersects this
instability axis, sustaining current MCS with additional moisture.
Effective deep layer shear is about 30-40 kts in our area,
supporting organized convection and possible supercell development.
Expectation is for an additional southward push of storms with this
cluster through this afternoon and evening. Supercells are already
developing in the Red River Valley area of OK this afternoon, and
some high-res CAM guidance gives this second area of development the
chance to organize into a separate squall that could push
southeastward into our CWA later tonight. Confidence on timing of
peak severe chances in our area is not the greatest, but one or both
waves should be clearing to southern parts of our area in the
midnight to 7 AM time frame tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow into next week, the pattern looks to remain active, as
mentioned. Remnant outflow boundaries stretched out in the region
will remain the focus for renewed development of convection, but the
key will be triggering of new upstream convection in the Southern
Plains and possible MCS development spreading into our area as a
result. The next focus for watching will be a potential MCS later
tomorrow night, which currently warrants a Marginal Risk for severe
storms extending into northeast LA and southeast AR before sunrise
Sunday and expanding to the rest of the area into the day Sunday.
Thunderstorm chances remain in place through Friday across our
region, which as mentioned, has the potential to be strong to severe
if timed out favorably with heating and the passage of upper-level
disturbances over the region. Residents should remain alert to
changes in forecasted impacts over the next several days. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings prevail at TAF sites this afternoon,
but showers and thunderstorms are moving into the Delta. These
storms will spread southward across the area through the evening
hours and this will bring IFR/MVFR conditions to sites into the
overnight hours. After the storms shift southeast of the area
expect sites to experience LIFR/IFR conditions into Saturday
morning. The winds will be mainly southerly at 5-10kts, but
expect gusty and variable winds near thunderstorms./15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  81  65  83 /  80  70  40  50
Meridian      62  81  62  83 /  70  90  30  40
Vicksburg     64  82  66  84 /  80  50  40  50
Hattiesburg   64  85  66  86 /  30  60  30  50
Natchez       65  86  67  87 /  60  40  30  50
Greenville    64  79  65  80 / 100  40  50  50
Greenwood     64  80  63  82 / 100  50  40  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

06/15

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
353 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

MSZ027-028-242145-
Carroll MS-Montgomery MS-
353 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL CARROLL AND
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM CDT...

At 352 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Winona, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Winona around 400 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3345 8955 3346 8990 3362 8989 3363 8955
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 270DEG 17KT 3354 8979

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
425 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

MSZ028-029-032-242200-
Montgomery MS-Choctaw MS-Webster MS-
425 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CHOCTAW...
SOUTHWESTERN WEBSTER AND NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 500
PM CDT...

At 424 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lodi, or 13 miles northeast of Winona, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Embry around 430 PM CDT.
  Eupora, Walthall, and Bellefontaine around 435 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3345 8961 3365 8960 3366 8919 3344 8920
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 270DEG 31KT 3357 8952

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CR