Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
646 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and
    hail, along with a few locally heavy downpours, are possible
    into this evening.

  - Wind behind the cold front will be strong and gusty later
    tonight into early Thursday.

  - A stronger cold front is expected late Sunday into Monday, and
    a freeze is likely in some areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Update for today: Generally speaking, the scenario is playing out
as expected with the continental northern stream cold front
pushing slowly southeast through the ArkLaMiss Delta region while
the southern stream shortwave trough crosses the Southern Plains
and helps develop a low along the frontal boundary. The airmass
has destabilized with strong daytime heating aided by capping
aloft, but mid level subsidence/mixing are also limiting the
potential for isolated severe storms in the warm sector. Also, low
level shear vectors are oriented mostly parallel along the front
where convection has been most prevalent today, and unimpressive
low level flow ahead of the low is not enhancing the severe threat
ahead of developing convective system crossing the Sabine River.
With all of that said, if there is to be severe weather going into
this evening, it will most likely be associated with more N-S
oriented linear convection associated with the mesolow tracking
across southern portions of the forecast area. Overall, messaging
is trending down with time and becoming more suppressed to
southern portions of the area. /EC/

Aside from the severe threat, average rainfall amounts around 1-2
inches are anticipated, but we could see locally higher amounts
in a couple of corridors: one from north LA through the ArkLaMiss
Delta area as the line of storms is initially slower while it
reorganizes earlier in the day and another from south MS through
east MS where there is potential for convective development ahead
of the line and mergers between this convection and the line.
Localized flash flooding will be possible, particularly in these
areas. Additionally, a period of gusty wind is expected in the
wake of the storms late this evening through early tomorrow
morning. Strongest gusts are expected in the flatter Delta areas,
where there could be scattered impacts, especially in areas with
weakened trees.

Thursday through the weekend: Behind the front, a brief intrusion
of cooler, more seasonable air will arrive by Thursday. A few
areas may dip into the upper 30s Friday morning. However, this
will be short lived as the surface ridge quickly shifts east of
our area and southerly low level vectors return by Friday. High
temps will return to the upper 70s and 80s this weekend.

Sunday into Monday: A deepening upper trough will bring another,
stronger cold front through the area late Sunday into Monday.
Showers will be possible ahead of the front, with a few storms
possible given steep mid level lapse rates. For now, meager low
level lapse rates appear likely to mitigate any severe threat.
Behind this front, a big cool down is in the offing. /DL/

Monday through Tue night: Long term guidance has gradually come
into agreement in showing that a freeze is likely for at least
north central to northeast portions of the forecast area. As we
get closer in time, confidence should increase for sub-freezing
low temperatures for much of the area given H850 temperatures
forecast to be ~ -6 deg C and with surface high pressure building
over the area. A caveat will be the degree of high level
cloudiness that could limit overnight cooling some. For now will
continue to hold off on messaging of what could be a significant
ag-related concern. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

As of 2346Z, southerly gusty winds have now shifted to the north.
Northerly gusty winds will continue to develop across the CWA
through this evening with gusts around 25 kts. Current radar scans
show a line of thunderstorms associated with the trough/cold
front moving in from the northwest towards the southeast through
06Z Thursday leading to multiple TAF sites seeing MVFR ceilings.
The line of thunderstorms should clear the area by 09Z. MVFR
ceilings will prevail across the entire forecast area through 12Z
Thursday. Ceilings will begin to improve to VFR status by 13Z
Thursday. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       44  61  38  71 / 100   0   0   0
Meridian      44  61  38  71 / 100  10   0   0
Vicksburg     43  60  38  71 / 100   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   51  66  39  75 / 100  10   0   0
Natchez       44  62  39  72 / 100   0   0   0
Greenville    41  57  40  68 / 100   0   0   0
Greenwood     41  61  40  70 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

DL/EC/CR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
641 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 S Florence            32.11N 90.13W
03/11/2026                   Rankin             MS   Emergency Mngr

            Outflow boundary moved through and south of
            the Florence area, a couple trees down on
            Whites Rd and Star Rd.

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
701 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 5 NNE JAN Airport       32.38N 90.03W
03/11/2026                   Rankin             MS   Emergency Mngr

            Outflow boundary and a shower moved through
            the Spillway Rd area, radar and measured
            wind gusts ranged between 40-46 mph. A few
            power lines were downed. Tree down on a
            mobile home on Vernon Jones Ave.

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
802 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NE Auburn             31.38N 90.59W
03/11/2026                   Lincoln            MS   Emergency Mngr

            Couple trees and power lines down in the SW
            part of the county.

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
806 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 S Meadville           31.43N 90.90W
03/11/2026                   Franklin           MS   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down across Meadville-Gloster Rd.

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
921 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ESE Natchez           31.54N 91.36W
03/11/2026                   Adams              MS   Emergency Mngr

            Report of downed powerline and downed tree
            on Liberty Rd near Natchez.

&&

KP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
926 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Bellevue                31.32N 89.47W
03/11/2026                   Lamar              MS   Amateur Radio

            Multiple trees down around hwy 589 & hwy 98.

&&

CE