Severe Thunderstorm Warning 372, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
229 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A limited threat for dangerous heat stress will continue across
  much of the area through Saturday. Heat stress will increase
  heading into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Through Saturday: A disturbance/MCV lifting northward from the
Gulf Coast will serve as a forcing mechanism for scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms today, with scattered light
showers already ongoing across portions of central and southeast
MS early this morning. At the same time, an upper shortwave will
shift from the Ozarks into the Mid South today, providing another
focus for development over the northwestern portion of the area.
While the bulk of convection is expected to be in the afternoon
some showers may linger into the evening. A belt of marginally
stronger upper flow will pass across north MS in association with
the shortwave today, and high res guidance does continue to suggest
a few strong storms are still possible in that area, though any
threat looks to remain mostly north of our area. The coastal
disturbance will shift east of the area tonight. Meanwhile the
trailing portion of the Mid South upper shortwave will linger into
Saturday, meaning scattered afternoon and early evening
convection is expected again, but coverage should be lesser than
today.

With increasing low level moisture, heat stress will become more
of a factor over the next few days. For today and Saturday, it
appears increased clouds/precip will preclude the need for an
advisory, though a few spots may still approach or briefly reach
advisory thresholds at times. We will maintain a limited heat
stress threat outlook during this time frame.

Sunday through next Friday: Upper ridging will build back in
across much of the Southeastern CONUS early next week, resulting
in a return to higher heat with lower diurnal rain chances more
typical of summer. With a muggy airmass still in place, heat
indices may begin rising to critical thresholds each day.
Interestingly, the higher heat indices during this period will be
driven more by higher temps, as dewpoints mix down into the upper
60s in many areas during the day. We will highlight an elevated
heat stress threat for much of the area, and heat advisories may
ultimately be needed.

Over the second half of the week, there are signs the position of
the surface ridge will begin to bring some heat stress relief.
There is increasing guidance consensus in drier easterly surface
flow wedging around the Appalachians and toward our area as early
as Wednesday or Thursday. The eastern half of the area has the
highest chance of being a beneficiary of this regime, so it may
still be quite hot from the MS River west. We'll keep our fingers
crossed for any potential break from this muggy weather. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Local radars showed -SHRA getting an early start across much of
the area. LIFR cigs have developed over the se and MVFR/IFR cigs
are psbl across the cntrl by 13Z. Cigs wl be slow to improve as
the SHRA/TSRA activity increases in coverage especially cntrl and
south. The convection will begin to dissipate after 0Z Sat and
VFR conditions are expected until after 06Z. After 06Z MVFR cigs
wl begin developing over most of the area and lower to IFR over
the se by 09Z. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  93  72  95 /  20  30  10  20
Meridian      70  91  71  95 /  10  50  10  20
Vicksburg     72  94  73  95 /  10  20   0  20
Hattiesburg   72  92  72  94 /  30  50  10  40
Natchez       72  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  20
Greenville    72  96  73  98 /  30  40   0  10
Greenwood     70  95  72  97 /  30  40   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

OAJ/OAJ/NF

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
327 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

MSZ053-059-112115-
Jefferson MS-Claiborne MS-
327 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE AND
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM CDT...

At 327 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Blue Hill, or 12 miles east of Fayette, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Blue Hill and Mcbride around 335 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3173 9096 3186 9092 3183 9073 3182 9074
      3173 9074 3166 9081
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 206DEG 5KT 3174 9086

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
332 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

MSZ025-035-036-112115-
Humphreys MS-Leflore MS-Holmes MS-
332 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HOLMES...
SOUTHWESTERN LEFLORE AND NORTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTIES THROUGH 415
PM CDT...

At 332 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Swiftown, or near Belzoni, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Holmes, southwestern Leflore and northeastern Humphreys Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3322 9050 3337 9043 3331 9020 3308 9034
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 296DEG 13KT 3325 9041

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
339 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

MSZ055-112130-
Simpson MS-
339 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON COUNTY
THROUGH 430 PM CDT...

At 339 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sanatorium, or near Magee, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Magee and Sanatorium around 345 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3179 8995 3192 8989 3191 8968 3181 8971
      3178 8973 3177 8984
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 285DEG 11KT 3185 8983

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
349 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

MSZ055-056-112130-
Smith MS-Simpson MS-
349 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SIMPSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN SMITH COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM CDT...

At 349 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
White Oak, or 8 miles west of Raleigh, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Raleigh around 355 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 8980 3205 8974 3205 8973 3207 8973
      3209 8972 3208 8947 3186 8956
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 285DEG 11KT 3202 8967

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SAS