Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
419 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and
    hail, along with a few locally heavy downpours, are possible
    into this evening.

  - Wind behind the cold front will be strong and gusty later
    tonight into early Thursday.

  - A stronger cold front is expected late Sunday into Monday, and
    a freeze is likely in some areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

UJpdate for today: Generally speaking, the scenario is playing
out as expected with the continental northern stream cold front
pushing slowly southeast through the ArkLaMiss Delta region while
the southern stream shortwave trough crosses the Southern Plains
and helps develop a low along the frontal boundary. The airmass
has destabilized with strong daytime heating aided by capping
aloft, but mid level subsidence/mixing are also limiting the
potential for isolated severe storms in the warm sector. Also, low
level shear vectors are oriented mostly parallel along the front
where convection has been most prevalent today, and unimpressive
low level flow ahead of the low is not enhancing the severe threat
ahead of developing convective system crossing the Sabine River.
With all of that said, if there is to be severe weather going into
this evening, it will most likely be associated with more N-S
oriented linear convection associated with the mesolow tracking
across southern portions of the forecast area. Overall, messaging
is trending down with time and becoming more suppressed to
southern portioins of the area. /EC/

Aside from the severe threat, average rainfall amounts around 1-2
inches are anticipated, but we could see locally higher amounts
in a couple of corridors: one from north LA through the ArkLaMiss
Delta area as the line of storms is initially slower while it
reorganizes earlier in the day and another from south MS through
east MS where there is potential for convective development ahead
of the line and mergers between this convection and the line.
Localized flash flooding will be possible, particularly in these
areas. Additionally, a period of gusty wind is expected in the
wake of the storms late this evening through early tomorrow
morning. Strongest gusts are expected in the flatter Delta areas,
where there could be scattered impacts, especially in areas with
weakened trees.

Thursday through the weekend: Behind the front, a brief intrusion
of cooler, more seasonable air will arrive by Thursday. A few
areas may dip into the upper 30s Friday morning. However, this
will be short lived as the surface ridge quickly shifts east of
our area and southerly low level vectors return by Friday. High
temps will return to the upper 70s and 80s this weekend.

Sunday into Monday: A deepening upper trough will bring another,
stronger cold front through the area late Sunday into Monday.
Showers will be possible ahead of the front, with a few storms
possible given steep mid level lapse rates. For now, meager low
level lapse rates appear likely to mitigate any severe threat.
Behind this front, a big cool down is in the offing. /DL/

Monday through Tue night: Long term guidance has gradually come
into agreement in showing that a freeze is likely for at least
north central to northeast portions of the forecast area. As we
get closer in time, confidence should increase for sub-freezing
low temperatures for much of the area given H850 temperatures
forecast to be ~ -6 deg C and with surface high pressure building
over the area. A caveat will be the degree of high level
cloudiness that could limit overnight cooling some. For now will
continue to hold off on messaging of what could be a significant
ag-related concern. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Southerly gusts have developed across the CWA as a tightened
gradient takes hold ahead of the approaching trough. A band of
thunderstorms associated with the trough/cold front will transit
the TAF sites, moving in from the northwest and progressing
southeast from 20Z through about 06Z. The line of thunderstorms
should clear the area by 09Z. We will see continued gusty winds of
about 25kts behind the cold front. Intermittent MVFR conditions
are expected with this front./OAJ/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       44  61  38  71 / 100   0   0   0
Meridian      44  61  38  71 / 100  10   0   0
Vicksburg     43  60  38  71 / 100   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   51  66  39  75 / 100  10   0   0
Natchez       44  62  39  72 / 100   0   0   0
Greenville    41  57  40  68 / 100   0   0   0
Greenwood     41  61  40  70 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

DL/EC/OAJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1219 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

ARZ074-111745-
Ashley AR-
1219 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN ASHLEY COUNTY THROUGH
1245 PM CDT...

At 1219 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Berlin, or near Crossett, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Hamburg and Berlin around 1225 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3330 9171 3309 9152 3301 9176 3301 9189
      3311 9199
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 232DEG 42KT 3310 9185

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

OAJ

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
116 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

ARZ075-MSZ018-034-111900-
Chicot AR-Washington MS-Bolivar MS-
116 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CHICOT...NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON AND SOUTH CENTRAL BOLIVAR COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM CDT...

At 115 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mcmillan Corner, or near Lake Village, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Lake Village around 120 PM CDT.
  Greenville and Winterville around 125 PM CDT.
  Metcalfe and Lamont around 130 PM CDT.
  Scott around 135 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3325 9132 3341 9143 3364 9101 3335 9085
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 240DEG 37KT 3337 9130

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

OAJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
454 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

MSZ028-029-032-037-112230-
Attala MS-Montgomery MS-Choctaw MS-Webster MS-
454 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CHOCTAW...NORTHEASTERN
ATTALA...SOUTH CENTRAL WEBSTER AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES
THROUGH 530 PM CDT...

At 454 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Poplar Creek, or 15 miles east of Vaiden, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  French Camp around 500 PM CDT.
  Chester around 505 PM CDT.
  Eupora and Reform around 510 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3314 8962 3334 8963 3358 8927 3338 8910
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 235DEG 42KT 3331 8948

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
534 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

LAZ024-026-112300-
Concordia LA-Catahoula LA-
534 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CONCORDIA AND
NORTHERN CATAHOULA PARISHES THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 533 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Walters, or 10 miles southwest of Jonesville, moving northeast at 50
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Jonesville, Wildsville, Wallace Ridge, and Manifest around 540 PM
  CDT.
  Harrisonburg around 545 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3168 9201 3189 9180 3170 9160 3143 9200
      3144 9201
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 226DEG 44KT 3156 9199

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19