Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat stress increases into the weekend and persists into mid
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Through mid next week (Wednesday)...

Today (Thursday) and Friday: RAP/water vapor analysis indicates
stagnant upper pattern: remnant upper low losing influence/washing
out over the Southeast states this morning and 596-597DM mean
ridge aloft over the Desert Southwest. Heights are building with
light and variable low level flow gradually shifting southerly
through Friday. This locks in PWs generally around one inch (1.2
inches) and low humidity aloft (i.e. 700-300mb layer humidity in
mid teens to low 20 percent range) in east to northeast MS while
deeper moisture (1.6 to 1.8 inches) over central to southern MS
and portions of northeast LA. Deep moisture will spread areawide
into Friday. Increased warm advection (WAA) will moderate
temperatures: highs becoming seasonably warm into Wednesday (95F
to 97F) and seasonable lows (70F to 75F this morning and again
tonight). Heat indices will continue to increase today in central
to southwestern areas (heat indices in the 102F to 107F range this
afternoon) and areas along and west of Interstate 55 Friday.
Inherited HWO graphics for Limited and Elevated heat in southwest
today seems reasonable. With moist advection picking up and lapse
rates in northeast LA to south central to southwest MS and
northeast LA, some diurnally induced showers and isolated storms
may develop.

This weekend through mid next week (Saturday through next
Wednesday): Synoptic pattern will shift to deepening mean ridge
over the Four Corners while the southeast states caught in
between ridge to the west and subtropical ridge off the Atlantic
seaboard. Surface boundary layer moisture will increase/higher
surface dewpoints this weekend (72F to 77F). Combined with
seasonable warmth (highs 93F to 96F), heat stress will only spread
and increase in area, continuing into early next week. HWO
graphic looks good for the weekend and continued the threat into
early next week (Tuesday). Further refinements and heat headlines
will likely be needed.

Low level moist advection and increased deep moisture aloft will
increase this the weekend (PWs in the 1.7 to 2.1 inch range late
weekend into next week). Rain chances will mainly be summertime
variety (diurnally induced) Thursday south of Interstate 20 and
along and southeast of Natchez Trace into the weekend and
spreading northwest into early next week. Coverage will be
isolated to at times scattered coverage (20 to 40 percent range)
with highest coverage in the Pine Belt, with potential sea breeze
influence. This pattern does not favor noteworthy organized storm
threat, but scattered stronger gusty storms with locally heavy
rain cannot be ruled out, especially late weekend through mid next
week. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Scattered to broken mid to high clouds
will largely stay south of the I-20 corridor. There is a low
chance (<30%) for a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon at
southern cites, but all activity diminishes after sunset. /SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  95  73  95 /   0  10  10  20
Meridian      74  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  30
Vicksburg     73  94  73  95 /   0  10  10  10
Hattiesburg   73  95  73  96 /  10  20  10  10
Natchez       73  95  72  96 /  10  10  10  10
Greenville    74  95  74  95 /   0  30  10  20
Greenwood     73  95  73  94 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

DC/DC/SAS20

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1237 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

MSZ062-063-061830-
Lawrence MS-Lincoln MS-
1237 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LINCOLN AND SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE
COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM CDT...

At 1237 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Bogue Chitto, or 9 miles north of Mccomb, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Brookhaven, Bogue Chitto, Ruth, Loyd Star, Topeka, Jayess, Center
Point, Enterprise, West Lincoln, Vaughn, and East Lincoln.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3152 9063 3164 9059 3163 9024 3135 9011
      3135 9063
TIME...MOT...LOC 1737Z 235DEG 15KT 3138 9051

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
103 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

MSZ049-061845-
Rankin MS-
103 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN RANKIN COUNTY THROUGH
145 PM CDT...

At 103 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Monterey, or near Pearl, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Pearl, Brandon, Richland, and Monterey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3213 9007 3223 9018 3238 9000 3223 8982
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 233DEG 7KT 3221 9005

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
126 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

MSZ054-062-063-061930-
Lawrence MS-Copiah MS-Lincoln MS-
126 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN...
NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE AND SOUTHEASTERN COPIAH COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM
CDT...

At 125 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Brookhaven, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hazlehurst, Wesson, Beauregard, Georgetown, Oma, Martinsville,
Sontag, and Rockport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3164 9058 3188 9044 3191 9017 3190 9015
      3185 9013 3184 9016 3183 9013 3180 9015
      3179 9014 3179 9011 3177 9011 3178 9012
      3177 9013 3175 9012 3175 9009 3166 9005
      3163 9023
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 237DEG 11KT 3161 9036

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
127 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

MSZ043-048-049-061930-
Hinds MS-Rankin MS-Madison MS-
127 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN RANKIN...EAST CENTRAL
HINDS AND SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM CDT...

At 127 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Flowood, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Madison, Ridgeland, Canton, Flowood, Gluckstadt, Pisgah,
Goshen Springs, and Fannin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3230 8995 3227 9018 3240 9018 3255 9015
      3258 8990 3250 8976 3248 8976
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 211DEG 9KT 3235 9004

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
131 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

MSZ048-049-061915-
Hinds MS-Rankin MS-
131 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN RANKIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN HINDS COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM CDT...

At 131 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Whites, or near Florence, moving north at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Richland, Florence, Whites, Monterey, and Star.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3207 9027 3229 9023 3220 8993 3205 9004
      3205 9020
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 199DEG 6KT 3211 9015

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SAS

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