Severe Thunderstorm Warning 258, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
225 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- "Marginal Risk" (Level 1 of 5) of isolated severe storms for the
  entire portions of the area late today into tonight.

- "Limited Threat" (Level 1 of 4) for flash flooding from late
  today into tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Today through Saturday night: A frontal boundary sinking into the
region from the north is yielding more scattered to widespread
showers and storms across the CWA. Due to the very humid and
unstable environment across the region, in addition to some steep
mid-level lapse rates (6-6.3 C/km), isolated severe storms will be
possible, with damaging wind gusts being the primary concern with
the most intense storms. Heavy downpours and frequent lightning
can both be expected with any of today's convection, and have
added a limited threat HWO graphic to account for some flash flood
potential as moisture convergence will peak along the I-20
corridor this evening. I

While this frontal boundary will eventually washout, due to the
overall troughing/low pressure pattern over the region, combined
with the continued humid and unstable airmass each day, solid
chances for showers and storms will remain in the forecast into at
least Wednesday.  While severe storms currently aren't forecast
after today, given the again overall setup across the region, a few
storms could become intense enough Monday through Wednesday to
produce some gusty winds.  Once again, both heavy downpours and
frequent lightning can be expected with any convection.

Finally, Thursday into the start of next weekend, ridging aloft will
again reassert itself over the region.  While this will lessen the
overall rain chances across the forecast area, the trade-off
currently looks to be a return to hot humid conditions as highs
areawide eventually climb back into the middle 90s Saturday. This
also currently looks to bring back some concern for increased heat
stress yet again during this extended portion of the forecast.
/19/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for a majority of the period. Convection
will be more scattered to widespread across the area this
afternoon as a surface boundary sinks south into the area. An
isolated severe storm capable of producing damaging wind gust will
be possible with the most intense storms. Heavy downpours and
frequent light can also be expected. This of course will again
result in a degradation of flight categories if observed on-
station. Convection will wind down at the latest 13/02-04Z Monday.
Wind overnight will be calm to light from the southwest. These
will increase by late morning in the westerly to northwesterly
direction, sustained and gusts generally less than 10mph. Some
MVFR/IFR stratus after 13/07-09Z Monday is possible at most sites,
outside of GLH and GWO. A few rain showers cannot be ruled out
prior to daybreak as well. /DC/19/KP/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  87  71  87 /  80  60  50  60
Meridian      72  88  70  86 /  80  60  60  80
Vicksburg     72  88  71  88 /  60  60  30  50
Hattiesburg   74  84  72  87 /  30  70  30  70
Natchez       72  86  71  88 /  50  80  20  60
Greenville    72  90  72  88 /  50  20  20  50
Greenwood     72  90  71  89 /  30  40  40  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

19/EC/DC/KP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
410 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

LAZ007-008-015-122215-
Richland LA-Morehouse LA-West Carroll LA-
410 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MOREHOUSE...NORTHWESTERN
RICHLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN WEST CARROLL PARISHES THROUGH 515 PM CDT...

At 410 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Swartz, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Collinston and Oak Ridge around 415 PM CDT.
  Mer Rouge around 430 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3289 9189 3280 9159 3247 9159 3246 9191
      3249 9194 3252 9190 3255 9192 3260 9193
      3263 9192 3265 9192 3266 9191 3267 9193
      3266 9194 3268 9196 3271 9197 3271 9198
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 231DEG 21KT 3258 9191

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SAS

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