Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
158 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - There is a Slight risk for severe weather today with wind and
    hail being the primary threats.

  - The most widespread and significant rainfall event since
    January is expected for the entire area.

  - There is potential for severe storms across the area Monday
    and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Today into tonight...

An active period of storms is developing across the region. A line
of storms is propagating southward into the region, forced in part
from frontal convergence and increasing moist ascent (PWs
approaching one and three quarters inch) will drive strong to
severe thunderstorm development across the region. Upper synoptic
analysis this afternoon indicate stalled Baja cold core low while
strong positive vorticity advection (PVA) off to the north. This
is keeping our region caught in the middle of the most efficient
ascent off to the north. However, the southward sinking cold front
is aiding in frontal convergence and widespread MCS sagging
southward into the Delta as we speak. Broad southwesterly deep
shear is around 30-35kts, but MCS orientation is more line
parallel to the shear. This is driving a more cold pool dominant
MCS into the area, which could limit the most efficient line
orthogonal orientation to any north-south bowing segments. Lapse
rates, 850mb temperatures and DCAPE are highly anomalous,
generally in excess of the 90th percentile to daily maximum
values. All of this being said, damaging wind gusts, hail to the
size of half dollars and brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out,
especially in any areas of favorable line segment shear
orientation or storm cell mergers. Severe thunderstorm watches are
in effect across the area, with one in the Delta expiring at 2PM
and the other watch, excluding the southern three tier of
counties (Marion, Lamar and Forrest), through 9PM. HWO graphic
looked good overall, just some minor adjustments to the timing
were needed.

This front will be slow to move through and line parallel flow
should lead to a quick locally heavy rainfall transition. Flash
flooding will be most likely in areas of training and storm cell
mergers, potentially greater than 3 inches in some areas.
Expanding the HWO graphic southeast to account for some of the
robust storm development in the south and potential storm mergers
in these areas. CAMs hit a little harder on this. There is less
focus to the northwest, so removing some of the Limited area and
focused to central to southeast areas.

Temperatures are warming nearly 20F above normal, well into the
mid to upper 80s in some areas. Most severe storm threat will
lessen just around or after midnight but rain chances persist. The
front will slowly sag southeast and continue into the Interstate
20 corridor through tonight, leading to continued rain and storm
chances overnight. Lows will be seasonably warm, some 18F to 22F
above normal (58F to 66F).

Relevant portion of previous discussion is attached below. /DC/

Sunday into Sunday night: The cold front is expected to stall
across our southern zones Sunday and our flow aloft will become
nearly zonal downstream of the cutoff low over Baja.

Monday through Friday: The stalled front will remain the focus
for additional convection Monday as it begins lifting north as a
warm front. A few subtle disturbances combined with daytime
heating and the warm front will lead to a few strong to severe
storms across our CWA during the afternoon and early evening.
Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the main threats. The cutoff
low will drift east Monday but then open up and eject out more
rapidly Tuesday. Ridging surface and aloft will strengthen back
over our CWA Tuesday and this looks to be a dry day before rain
chances start increasing from the west ahead of the approaching
upper level trough that once was the cutoff low. Initially heights
look rather high but a potent northern disturbance will come in
phase with the southern trough and bring a threat of severe storm
development across our CWA Wednesday. This system looks to bring a
clearing front across our CWA Wednesday night and by Thursday a
much cooler and drier airmass will be over our region. Friday
morning is expected to be the coldest morning with low to mid 40s
areawide. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A busy aviation day is in store. VFR prevails through this
afternoon, with thunderstorms in the west. Coverage will gradually
increase this afternoon and evening. Storms will clear the area by
8z. In the wake, trailing stratiform will lead to low IFR ceilings
and MVFR visibility./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  75  62  81 /  80  70  10  50
Meridian      62  75  62  81 /  90  80  20  50
Vicksburg     63  75  61  81 /  80  70  10  50
Hattiesburg   66  79  65  84 /  70  80  10  40
Natchez       64  77  64  81 /  80  80  10  50
Greenville    58  69  59  77 /  80  40   0  70
Greenwood     61  73  59  80 /  80  50  10  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

DC/22/SAS20

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
308 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

LAZ025-MSZ047-053-059-072215-
Tensas LA-Jefferson MS-Warren MS-Claiborne MS-
308 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT TENSAS PARISH...SOUTHERN
WARREN...CENTRAL CLAIBORNE AND NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES
THROUGH 415 PM CST...

At 308 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
St. Joseph, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Newellton around 315 PM CST.
  Yokena around 335 PM CST.
  Vicksburg and Le Tourneau around 340 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for
northeastern Louisiana...and central, southwestern and west central
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 9154 3193 9151 3196 9152 3219 9136
      3224 9112 3221 9112 3224 9103 3222 9100
      3219 9100 3225 9097 3228 9098 3235 9063
      3233 9069 3233 9070 3230 9070 3227 9072
      3225 9071 3221 9073 3174 9115 3186 9158
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 221DEG 29KT 3193 9122

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
313 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

MSZ042-043-072200-
Yazoo MS-Madison MS-
313 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL YAZOO AND CENTRAL MADISON
COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM CST...

At 313 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Flora, or 14 miles west of Gluckstadt, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bentonia, Myrleville, and Little Yazoo around 320 PM CST.
  Benton around 335 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for
central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3285 8985 3244 9019 3247 9025 3249 9025
      3249 9029 3259 9051 3298 9033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 212DEG 23KT 3259 9034

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
315 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

MSZ048-049-072230-
Hinds MS-Rankin MS-
315 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT RANKIN AND HINDS COUNTIES
THROUGH 430 PM CST...

At 314 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dentville, or 8 miles west of Crystal Springs, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Dry Grove around 320 PM CST.
  Jackson and Terry around 330 PM CST.
  Byram and Raymond around 335 PM CST.
  Richland around 350 PM CST.
  Pearl and Flowood around 400 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for
central and southwestern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3207 9072 3251 9048 3250 9045 3249 9045
      3247 9024 3240 9024 3240 9007 3244 9007
      3239 8980 3205 8989
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 221DEG 29KT 3199 9051

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
342 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     Hail             1 SSW Loyd Star         31.62N 90.55W
03/07/2026  E0.75 Inch       Lincoln            MS   Emergency Mngr

            Nickel size hail reported in Loyd Star.

&&

DC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
351 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 WNW Terry             32.11N 90.32W
03/07/2026  M70 MPH          Hinds              MS   Trained Spotter

            Report of quarter sized hail and 70mph gusts
            from hand held anemometer.

&&

KP

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