Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
126 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorm chances continue today before
  dry late week into weekend.

- Dangerous heat will build and spread across the area by this
  weekend and worsen into early next week with heat index values
  eventually topping 110 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Today through next Wednesday...

Northwest flow and convective coverage continues today across the
region. Shortwave trough energy, combined with afternoon
insolation and heat/humidity is leading to convective initiation
and afternoon scattered coverage. Precipitable water (PWs) will
remain generally the same (1.8 to 2.0 inches) so scattered
coverage (25 to 55 percent) will be the norm. There are a little
better lapse rates (around 25C vertical totals and 500mb temps
around -8C) and light northwesterly shear (10 to 15kts) so cannot
rule out a rogue strong storm. Morning microburst composite from
12Z JAN sounding indicate some diurnal microburst risk, so will
have to monitor any more robust storm. Highs are moderating a
little more seasonable (upper 80s to low 90s to the south).
Humidity will creep up somewhat as well, with heat indices peaking
into the upper 90s to low 100s, especially in the south. Inherited
HWO graphic for dangerous heat today remains valid.

Mean ridging at the surface and aloft will build in Friday through
the weekend, leading to dry weather into the weekend. Deepening
ridge (594 to 596DM) and warm advection will drive summertime warmth
and humidity back into the region. Highs will moderate (3F to 6F
above Friday to Sunday and 4F to 8F above early next week),
generally low to mid 90s Friday into Sunday and mid to upper 90s
next Monday through next Wednesday. Dangerous heat becomes an
increasing concern, especially Sunday and beyond as heat indices
reach near or in excess of 105F degrees areawide to even in
excess of 110F degrees at times. HWO graphics and heat headlines
will likely be needed during this stretch of dangerous heat. Lows
remain seasonably warm during this time (low to mid 70s). Next
best chances of rain (20 to 45 percent) will not be until early
to mid next week (next Tuesday into Wednesday) as an easterly wave
slides under northward building ridge aloft. Highest coverage will
be in central to southern areas, generally south of Interstate 20
into the Highway 84 corridor. Some stronger storms cannot be
ruled out during this time as seasonably warm highs into the mid
to upper 90s, increased heat and humidity and light southeasterly
flow (10 to 20kts) could lead to some scattered organized
convection at times. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Some afternoon SHRA and TSRA are possible again today, with the
exception of northern TAF sites (GLH, GWO and GTR). This could
bring periods of gusty winds and variable visibility, persisting
through around 25/23Z Thursday to 26/01Z Friday. VFR flight
categories are likely most TAF sites through the rest of the 18Z
TAF cycle, while the Pine Belt (PIB and HBG) could have brief
drops to MVFR/IFR visibility/BR around daybreak (26/09-13Z Friday)
before improving to VFR flight categories. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  92  74  92 /  10   0   0   0
Meridian      71  92  74  92 /  10   0   0   0
Vicksburg     73  91  75  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   73  94  75  94 /  30   0   0   0
Natchez       73  92  74  92 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    73  90  76  91 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     73  91  76  92 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

DC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
342 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MSZ049-056-252115-
Smith MS-Rankin MS-
342 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RANKIN AND
NORTHWESTERN SMITH COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM CDT...

At 341 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Puckett, or 13 miles northeast of Mendenhall, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Polkville and White Oak around 345 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3205 8958 3206 8978 3222 8977 3223 8965
      3222 8957
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 271DEG 21KT 3214 8977

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
349 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MSZ044-252115-
Leake MS-
349 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LEAKE COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM CDT...

At 349 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Standing Pine, or near Carthage, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Walnut Grove and Madden around 355 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3258 8952 3280 8964 3285 8949 3269 8932
      3258 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 324DEG 17KT 3267 8946

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

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