Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
632 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible
  into tonight; with a Slight Risk across the north and a Marginal
  Risk for severe storms over central and southern portions of
  the area.

- There is a Limited threat for dangerous heat stress today with
  heat index values peaking near 105 degrees.

- Seasonal temps (highs: low/mid 80s & lows: ranging in the 60s) and
  dry air will follow post frontal boundary Tuesday night.

- Rain potential will return over the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Through Tuesday: Latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a mid
level ridge axis to our west that was resulting in a northwest flow
across the CWA. This northwest flow was supporting an MCS moving
south across northern Alabama. The western portions of this MCS was
spreading into our northeast most zones. Severe storms capable of
damaging wind gusts and some hail will be possible with this
activity this afternoon. Elsewhere across the CWA microburst pulse
severe storms are possible as local microburst checklist showed
microbursts will be likely this afternoon considering the
anticipated atmospheric parameters. In addition latest guidance
still showed additional development across the northern portions of
our CWA this evening along the boundary leftover by the current MCS.
The main threat for severe through this evening will remain damaging
wind gusts although hail and locally heavy downpours.  A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for our northeast this afternoon
but an additional Watch or an expansion of the current Watch is
possible this evening due to the potential of more organized
convection dropping through our CWA. In addition, with the heat and
humidity across the CWA away from convection, peak heat index values
will be around 105F in may areas this afternoon. This area is
outside of our northeast due to the ongoing convection.

It's possible the convection tonight will last past midnight across
the southern portions of our CWA. Tuesday a >1028mb high will drop
out of Canada and become centered over the Great Lakes region. This
will bring cooler and drier air into the northern portions of our
CWA. This will result in the highest heat indices and greatest rain
chances across our southern zones Tuesday afternoon. /22/

Tuesday Night through Sunday:

Once the trough shifts south, the frontal boundary will push through
the region Tuesday afternoon. Drier air will provide relief from the
heat over the last few days as high/low temps feel closer to early
June (near seasonal average). High pressure will settle over the
Great Lakes, traversing southward over the week and provide a
ridging pattern for our region. Heading into the weekend, the high
will shift towards the east, winds will shift to the
south/southeast, increasing humidity across the area. With
increasing humidity, 40-75% rain chances return over the weekend
with the greatest chances in the south/southwestern portion of the
ArkLaMiss region. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

As a result of scattered convection ongoing across a good portion
of the area, flight categories are and will continue to range
from VFR to IFR conditions over the next few hours. As the evening
wares on, convection will gradually subside, with a return to VFR
flight categories overnight. Toward day break Tuesday, scattered
low stratus and patchy ground fog will again be possible for a one
to three hour period a some sites. This will again degrade
categories to MVFR/IFR status, before again returning to VFR
categories by late morning. Scattered convection will again be
possible Tuesday afternoon for TAF sites mainly along and south of
the Interstate 20 corridor late Tuesday afternoon. Winds will
generally subside to calm this evening and overnight, except in
and around thunderstorms where gusty winds can be expected. Winds
on Tuesday will generally be from the north between 5-10 mph. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  90  68  82 /  20  40  10   0
Meridian      69  89  66  81 /  20  40  10   0
Vicksburg     72  90  69  84 /  30  30  10  10
Hattiesburg   71  91  68  81 /  40  60  30  20
Natchez       71  92  70  85 /  20  50  20  10
Greenville    71  88  66  84 /  50  30   0   0
Greenwood     70  88  65  84 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

19