Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
131 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms capable of producing tornadoes, some possibly
  strong, damaging winds and large hail, are likely this afternoon
  into tonight.

- Locally heavy rainfall and areas of flooding are likely, with
  further drought relief expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Rest of this Afternoon into Thursday...A threat for severe storms
continues across the forecast area this afternoon into tonight.
There have indeed been some adjustments to the respected threat
areas across the forecast area based upon both surface and upper air
observations through the course of the day, and the latest high-res
model data. The primary adjustments to these threat areas have been
a shift to the south for each.  This is primarily due to a steadier
southward push of the cold front and the cooler drier air associated
with it settling into northern portions of the CWA, in addition to a
good capping inversion remaining across the area. This cap will
continue to be sampled with special KJAN RAOBS through late this
afternoon and evening.  As eluded to earlier, this cap, along with
the abundance of cloud cover across the forecast area, could play a
sizeable roll in hampering both coverage and intensity of convection
across the area, along with where the best threat area for severe
weather sets up.

From now through around 6 PM, storms that develop across the CWA
will primarily have the potential of producing damaging winds to 70
mph and hail to the size of golf balls.  This will especially be the
case across areas currently residing in both the "Enhanced Risk"
(Level 3 of 5) and the "Slight Risk" (Level 2 of 5) areas.  Some
convection developing in the wake of the front, namely across the
Delta region and North Central Mississippi can't be ruled out.
There, a "Marginal Risk" for isolated severe storms exists, with a
low end threat for hail to the size of quarters and damaging wind
gusts.

As we move into late afternoon and evening hours, an area of ascent
will lift northeast across the region.  The combination of the
expected weakening cap, available instability, steep mid-level lapse
rates, and increasing overall wind shear and lengthening hodographs,
the potential for severe storms increases further. During this time
and to a greater extent, the threat for tornadoes increases across
much of the area.  This is particularly the case in both the
"Enhanced Risk" and "Slight Risk" areas, with a strong tornado
possible in and around the "Enhanced Risk" area.

In addition to the severe weather threat today, an "Elevated Threat"
for flash flooding due to heavy rainfall and training of convection
is likely given the increase in atmospheric moisture across the
region, 2-2.25 inch precipitable H2O values. This will particularly
be the case across portions of central, south, and east Mississippi.
Here, rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches, and locally higher, will be
possible in a short amount of time. Elsewhere across a good portion
of the area, a "Limited Threat" for flash flooding exists with
rainfall amounts ranging from 2-3 inches will be possible in a short
amount of time.

Currently, the potential for severe weather looks to finally wrap up
across the Pine Belt region between the hours of 1-3 AM Thursday.
Some shower activity will linger there through late morning. Clouds
will gradually break across the area from northwest to southeast
through the afternoon, with slightly cooler drier conditions
expected for Thursday into Thursday night. /19/

Friday through next Tuesday...Rain chances begin to shift southeast
into late week. Synoptic and surface features will consist of cutoff
low aloft near the International Border with frontal zone shifting
southeast into the northern Gulf. This will keep some rain chances
along the Natchez Trace through before daybreak Friday, with highest
coverage into the Pine Belt to Highway 84 to Interstate 59 corridors
but shifting northward into the Interstate 20 corridor through the
day. As shortwave trough swings into the ArLaTex into the weekend,
expect rain coverage to pick up Saturday and into Sunday (25 to 55
percent) ahead of another front.

Temperature forecast become more seasonable as return flow gradually
shifts around into the weekend (highs in upper 70s Friday to low to
mid 80s Saturday and Sunday to mid to upper 80s Sunday and lows in
upper 50s to low 60s Friday night to low to mid 60s Saturday and
Sunday night). As shortwave becomes absorbed in the developing
trough and deepening axis over the region, this will help drive
clearing front through the area and rain chances out likely by early
to midday Monday of next week. High pressure and seasonably cool
conditions will build in the wake. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Mix of MVFR/IFR flight conditions at sites as low ceiling and light
rain moves across the area. Stratus clouds will linger over the
region with southerly and southwesterly winds near 10-15 kts with
higher gusts throughout the afternoon. Showers/storms, with severe
storms likely, are expected after 20/21Z Wednesday, resulting in IFR
flight conditions throughout the evening and overnight hours.
Rain/storm coverage will begin decreasing from the northwest after
05Z Thursday.Low ceilings will keep conditions at MVFR/IFR through
the end of the period. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       61  74  56  74 / 100  10  10  40
Meridian      62  75  54  74 /  90  20   0  30
Vicksburg     58  73  56  75 /  90   0  10  40
Hattiesburg   67  78  59  73 /  80  60  20  60
Natchez       61  75  59  74 / 100  10  30  70
Greenville    55  71  54  76 /  80   0   0   0
Greenwood     56  73  52  77 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

19/DC/SW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
436 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

MSZ061-062-062215-
Lincoln MS-Franklin MS-
436 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LINCOLN AND EASTERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM CDT...

At 436 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bude, or near Meadville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Mccall Creek, Center Point, and Little Springs around 440 PM CDT.
  West Lincoln around 445 PM CDT.
  Vaughn around 450 PM CDT.
  Brookhaven and Loyd Star around 455 PM CDT.
  Enterprise around 505 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
and southwestern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 9086 3150 9091 3169 9047 3157 9034
      3137 9034
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 244DEG 35KT 3143 9080

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SAS

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
548 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     Hail             3 ESE Hope              32.73N 89.19W
05/06/2026  M1.75 Inch       Neshoba            MS   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency manager reported golf ball size
            hail at Hwy 21 S and Hwy 488.

&&

SW