River Flood Warning 11, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
404 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be a marginal risk for a few brief weak tornadoes
  over southeast to eastern portions of the area early Friday
  morning.

- The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will continue
  through the weekend, peaking Sunday and Monday.

- We will be monitoring the potential for additional heavy
  rainfall and flash flooding next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

In the near term, the next in a series of weak MCVs has combined
with a very moist airmass (precipitable water near 2 inches and
surface dewpoints in the lower 70s) and peak heating to initiate
another round of showers/storms with intense rainfall rates this
afternoon. Following days of heavy rainfall, some locations are
becoming more flood prone and sensitive to additional heavy
rainfall, and so have continued the limited flash flood threat
messaging in our HWO graphics. Flash flood threats will tend to
peak during the day into the evening, but persistent convergent
zones that focus intense rainfall rates for long durations could
develop at just about anytime.

In addition, An MCV forecast to cross the area late tonight into
Friday appears it will enhance the low level shear/vorticity in a
very moist boundary layer making any convective updrafts more
prone to spinning up weak and brief tornadoes. After assessment of
the near term guidance low level shear parameters and convective
evolution, it appears that locations along the I-59 corridor will
have peak tornado threat during the 4 am to 10 am time frame. An
additional limited flash flood threat will accompany this MCV as
well.

Looking ahead, an unusually long duration of wet weather will
continue for the foreseeable future as a large and persistent
trough to ridge longwave pattern remains anchored over the CONUS.
This will continue to bring our region a steady stream of
subtropical moisture with seasonably high precipitable water
values, and multiple upper level perturbations that will provide
lift and help initiate additional rounds of convective rainfall.
Once we get to about Sunday, a greater threat for flash flooding
should evolve as a more favorable set-up and couple upper level
jet interaction may team up with the very moist air to bring a
more widespread heavy rainfall threat. As of now this appears it
will be over mainly western/southern portions of the area and have
included an "elevated" flood threat in this area.

Otherwise, it appears the thermodynamic/shear profiles will not
be particularly favorable for severe weather concerns given the
deep moisture and influence from the southeast CONUS ridge, but as
is the case in the near term, we'll need to monitor for marginal
tornado risks given the potential for enhanced low level shear in
the very moist air. As previously mentioned, it's difficult to
find an end to this wet pattern in the guidance through most of
the remainder of the month. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible at all sites
through the TAF period as rain and low ceilings impact the area.
Brief periods of lowered categories will be possible during bouts
of heavier rainfall./KP/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  80  68  85 /  90  80  60  70
Meridian      68  81  68  85 /  70  90  80  80
Vicksburg     67  81  68  85 /  90  70  40  70
Hattiesburg   70  82  69  85 /  60  90  70  90
Natchez       68  81  69  85 /  90  70  40  80
Greenville    67  81  67  84 /  90  70  40  60
Greenwood     67  80  67  85 /  80  90  70  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

EC/KP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
620 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

MSZ059>061-220000-
Adams MS-Jefferson MS-Franklin MS-
620 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...SOUTH
CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND EAST CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM
CDT...

At 620 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Roxie, or 14 miles west of Meadville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Roxie, Hamburg, Kirby, Stampley, and Mcnair around 625 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 9117 3153 9127 3177 9101 3151 9075
      3134 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 231DEG 24KT 3150 9113

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

OAJ

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