Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
158 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - There is a Slight risk for severe weather today with wind and
    hail being the primary threats.

  - The most widespread and significant rainfall event since
    January is expected for the entire area.

  - There is potential for severe storms across the area Monday
    and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Today into tonight...

An active period of storms is developing across the region. A line
of storms is propagating southward into the region, forced in part
from frontal convergence and increasing moist ascent (PWs
approaching one and three quarters inch) will drive strong to
severe thunderstorm development across the region. Upper synoptic
analysis this afternoon indicate stalled Baja cold core low while
strong positive vorticity advection (PVA) off to the north. This
is keeping our region caught in the middle of the most efficient
ascent off to the north. However, the southward sinking cold front
is aiding in frontal convergence and widespread MCS sagging
southward into the Delta as we speak. Broad southwesterly deep
shear is around 30-35kts, but MCS orientation is more line
parallel to the shear. This is driving a more cold pool dominant
MCS into the area, which could limit the most efficient line
orthogonal orientation to any north-south bowing segments. Lapse
rates, 850mb temperatures and DCAPE are highly anomalous,
generally in excess of the 90th percentile to daily maximum
values. All of this being said, damaging wind gusts, hail to the
size of half dollars and brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out,
especially in any areas of favorable line segment shear
orientation or storm cell mergers. Severe thunderstorm watches are
in effect across the area, with one in the Delta expiring at 2PM
and the other watch, excluding the southern three tier of
counties (Marion, Lamar and Forrest), through 9PM. HWO graphic
looked good overall, just some minor adjustments to the timing
were needed.

This front will be slow to move through and line parallel flow
should lead to a quick locally heavy rainfall transition. Flash
flooding will be most likely in areas of training and storm cell
mergers, potentially greater than 3 inches in some areas.
Expanding the HWO graphic southeast to account for some of the
robust storm development in the south and potential storm mergers
in these areas. CAMs hit a little harder on this. There is less
focus to the northwest, so removing some of the Limited area and
focused to central to southeast areas.

Temperatures are warming nearly 20F above normal, well into the
mid to upper 80s in some areas. Most severe storm threat will
lessen just around or after midnight but rain chances persist. The
front will slowly sag southeast and continue into the Interstate
20 corridor through tonight, leading to continued rain and storm
chances overnight. Lows will be seasonably warm, some 18F to 22F
above normal (58F to 66F).

Relevant portion of previous discussion is attached below. /DC/

Sunday into Sunday night: The cold front is expected to stall
across our southern zones Sunday and our flow aloft will become
nearly zonal downstream of the cutoff low over Baja.

Monday through Friday: The stalled front will remain the focus
for additional convection Monday as it begins lifting north as a
warm front. A few subtle disturbances combined with daytime
heating and the warm front will lead to a few strong to severe
storms across our CWA during the afternoon and early evening.
Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the main threats. The cutoff
low will drift east Monday but then open up and eject out more
rapidly Tuesday. Ridging surface and aloft will strengthen back
over our CWA Tuesday and this looks to be a dry day before rain
chances start increasing from the west ahead of the approaching
upper level trough that once was the cutoff low. Initially heights
look rather high but a potent northern disturbance will come in
phase with the southern trough and bring a threat of severe storm
development across our CWA Wednesday. This system looks to bring a
clearing front across our CWA Wednesday night and by Thursday a
much cooler and drier airmass will be over our region. Friday
morning is expected to be the coldest morning with low to mid 40s
areawide. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A busy aviation day is in store. VFR prevails through this
afternoon, with thunderstorms in the west. Coverage will gradually
increase this afternoon and evening. Storms will clear the area by
8z. In the wake, trailing stratiform will lead to low IFR ceilings
and MVFR visibility./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  75  62  81 /  80  70  10  50
Meridian      62  75  62  81 /  90  80  20  50
Vicksburg     63  75  61  81 /  80  70  10  50
Hattiesburg   66  79  65  84 /  70  80  10  40
Natchez       64  77  64  81 /  80  80  10  50
Greenville    58  69  59  77 /  80  40   0  70
Greenwood     61  73  59  80 /  80  50  10  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

DC/22/SAS20

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
509 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Hawkins Field           32.34N 90.22W
03/07/2026  M51 MPH          Hinds              MS   ASOS

            Measured at the Hawkins Field ASOS.

&&

DL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
532 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

MSZ045-046-050>052-056>058-080030-
Kemper MS-Scott MS-Smith MS-Lauderdale MS-Newton MS-Neshoba MS-
Jasper MS-Clarke MS-
532 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN JASPER...NEWTON...
NORTHEASTERN SMITH...KEMPER...NORTHERN CLARKE...SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT...
NESHOBA AND LAUDERDALE COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CST...

At 531 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Nanih Waiya to Lake. Movement was
southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Newton, Union, Decatur, Lawrence, House, Stratton, Forestdale,
  Bethsaida, Herbert Springs, and Preston around 535 PM CST.
  Roberts and Damascus around 540 PM CST.
  Collinsville, Hickory, Garlandville, Duffee, Martin, and Liberty
  around 545 PM CST.
  De Kalb and Prismatic around 550 PM CST.
  Chunky, Suqualena, and Blackwater around 555 PM CST.
  Meridian, Nellieburg, Meehan, Daleville, and Rose Hill around 600
  PM CST.
  Meridian Station around 605 PM CST.
  Marion, Enterprise, Porterville, Tamola, Savoy, and Orange around
  610 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for
central and east central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3196 8847 3223 8957 3238 8951 3258 8933
      3258 8932 3260 8932 3293 8910 3292 8895
      3293 8870 3278 8836
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 300DEG 34KT 3287 8891 3235 8930

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
537 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 WNW Johns             32.15N 89.88W
03/07/2026                   Rankin             MS   Public

            Trees downed along MS Hwy 18 between Brandon
            and Puckett.

&&

DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
540 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     Hail             3 WSW Deemer            32.73N 89.16W
03/07/2026  M0.70 Inch       Neshoba            MS   Emergency Mngr

            Report of dime sized hail.

&&

KP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
546 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     Flash Flood      2 NNW Ridgeland         32.45N 90.15W
03/07/2026                   Madison            MS   Broadcast Media

            Report of flooding across roadway in Colony
            Park area.

&&

KP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
558 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Nitta Yuma              33.02N 90.85W
03/07/2026                   Sharkey            MS   Emergency Mngr

            Report of damage to church roof, multiple
            downed tree limbs, home damaged by downed
            powerlines, and some small electrical fires.

&&

KP