Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
625 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat stress is expected across southern portions of
  the area today.

- Isolated to scattered severe storms capable of damaging wind
  gusts remain possible across southern portions of the area
  today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Today and tonight...

A sinking surface boundary sliding southeast paired with the right
entrance region an upper jet streak/speed max will contribute to
an early morning round of elevated convection this morning across
portions of the Delta and central MS. With this activity,
temperatures/heat indices will be cooler today than we've seen
recently with maximum values near 105 mostly near and south of the
I-20 corridor. A "Limited" (1/4) risk for heat stress remains
depicted in these areas.

Mostly to the south of this early activity, afternoon heating
could allow for a rejuvenation of storm activity and these
diurnally stronger storms warrant continuation of a "Slight"
(2/5) risk for severe weather with the primary risk expected to
be a risk for damaging wind gusts.

Tuesday into the weekend...

A preciously advertised risk for strong to severe storms on
Tuesday has been withdrawn on this forecast cycle. Recent trends
suggest early morning convective activity could result in a
somewhat more thermodynamically stable environment during the
afternoon and evening tomorrow.

Through the week, deep layer upper ridging will initially
retrograde toward the Southwest as upper troughing generally moves
further northeast and weaker away from the area. This results in
upper heights remaining generally unchanged but with a somewhat
reduced gradient. This could mean somewhat of a reduction in the
near daily risk of mostly diurnally driven strong to severe
storms, but embedded disturbances within the generally northwest
flow aloft will mean some day-to-day variation could still bring
the threat to some portions of the area each day. This will be
monitored through the next week and targeted, mostly lower-end
severe weather outlooks for some risk of damaging winds could be
introduced when warranted. With a reduction in storm coverage
likely and a general return to weak, southerly boundary layer flow
as opposed to the more recent northerlies, heat and humidity will
be on the rebound through the week. Heat headlines and advisories
will likely be needed as the week progress. /SW/86/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

All TAF sites are VFR tonight and this will continue through the
morning hours. Scattered to numerous showers/storms will develop
this afternoon and this will bring the potential for MVFR/IFR
conditions to affected sites. The winds will mainly be light and
variable outside of any thunderstorm activity./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       91  72  92  72 /  70  30  40  10
Meridian      93  72  93  72 /  50  10  20  20
Vicksburg     90  72  92  73 /  70  20  40  20
Hattiesburg   95  73  92  72 /  80  20  40  10
Natchez       95  74  93  73 /  60  10  50   0
Greenville    88  72  94  73 /  80  30  40  30
Greenwood     89  71  92  72 /  50  20  40  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

/15

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
753 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

ARZ074-075-241400-
Chicot AR-Ashley AR-
753 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CHICOT AND EASTERN ASHLEY
COUNTIES THROUGH 900 AM CDT...

At 753 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Hamburg, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hamburg, Lake Village, Dermott, Eudora, Wilmot, Portland, Montrose,
Parkdale, Chicot Junction, Mcmillan Corner, and Snyder.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3339 9179 3339 9146 3356 9145 3356 9135
      3352 9135 3353 9133 3352 9132 3352 9125
      3356 9124 3301 9121 3301 9159 3318 9191
TIME...MOT...LOC 1253Z 288DEG 8KT 3323 9174

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SAS