Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
225 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- "Marginal Risk" (Level 1 of 5) of isolated severe storms for the
  entire portions of the area late today into tonight.

- "Limited Threat" (Level 1 of 4) for flash flooding from late
  today into tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Today through Saturday night: A frontal boundary sinking into the
region from the north is yielding more scattered to widespread
showers and storms across the CWA. Due to the very humid and
unstable environment across the region, in addition to some steep
mid-level lapse rates (6-6.3 C/km), isolated severe storms will be
possible, with damaging wind gusts being the primary concern with
the most intense storms. Heavy downpours and frequent lightning
can both be expected with any of today's convection, and have
added a limited threat HWO graphic to account for some flash flood
potential as moisture convergence will peak along the I-20
corridor this evening. I

While this frontal boundary will eventually washout, due to the
overall troughing/low pressure pattern over the region, combined
with the continued humid and unstable airmass each day, solid
chances for showers and storms will remain in the forecast into at
least Wednesday.  While severe storms currently aren't forecast
after today, given the again overall setup across the region, a few
storms could become intense enough Monday through Wednesday to
produce some gusty winds.  Once again, both heavy downpours and
frequent lightning can be expected with any convection.

Finally, Thursday into the start of next weekend, ridging aloft will
again reassert itself over the region.  While this will lessen the
overall rain chances across the forecast area, the trade-off
currently looks to be a return to hot humid conditions as highs
areawide eventually climb back into the middle 90s Saturday. This
also currently looks to bring back some concern for increased heat
stress yet again during this extended portion of the forecast.
/19/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for a majority of the period. Convection
will be more scattered to widespread across the area this
afternoon as a surface boundary sinks south into the area. An
isolated severe storm capable of producing damaging wind gust will
be possible with the most intense storms. Heavy downpours and
frequent light can also be expected. This of course will again
result in a degradation of flight categories if observed on-
station. Convection will wind down at the latest 13/02-04Z Monday.
Wind overnight will be calm to light from the southwest. These
will increase by late morning in the westerly to northwesterly
direction, sustained and gusts generally less than 10mph. Some
MVFR/IFR stratus after 13/07-09Z Monday is possible at most sites,
outside of GLH and GWO. A few rain showers cannot be ruled out
prior to daybreak as well. /DC/19/KP/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  87  71  87 /  80  60  50  60
Meridian      72  88  70  86 /  80  60  60  80
Vicksburg     72  88  71  88 /  60  60  30  50
Hattiesburg   74  84  72  87 /  30  70  30  70
Natchez       72  86  71  88 /  50  80  20  60
Greenville    72  90  72  88 /  50  20  20  50
Greenwood     72  90  71  89 /  30  40  40  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

19/EC/DC/KP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
659 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

MSZ049-130100-
Rankin MS-
659 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL RANKIN COUNTY THROUGH
800 PM CDT...

At 659 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brandon, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Jackson and Brandon around 705 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3225 9011 3236 9010 3237 8992 3221 8996
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 282DEG 5KT 3230 9003

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
712 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

MSZ049-050-130115-
Scott MS-Rankin MS-
712 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL RANKIN AND WESTERN
SCOTT COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 712 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Forkville, or 10 miles north of Morton, moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Branch and Forkville around 720 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3230 8967 3247 8984 3259 8973 3258 8973
      3258 8962 3252 8948
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 307DEG 5KT 3250 8971

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
715 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

ARZ074-075-MSZ034-130115-
Chicot AR-Ashley AR-Washington MS-
715 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN CHICOT...SOUTHEASTERN
ASHLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 715 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Parkdale, or 15 miles southwest of Lake Village, moving
east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Eudora around 720 PM CDT.
  Chicot Junction around 735 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3324 9148 3324 9104 3301 9105 3301 9116
      3300 9117 3300 9136 3301 9152
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 276DEG 8KT 3313 9141

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
727 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

MSZ037-044-045-130130-
Neshoba MS-Attala MS-Leake MS-
727 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LEAKE...SOUTHEASTERN
ATTALA AND NORTHWESTERN NESHOBA COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM CDT...

At 727 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Renfroe, or 10 miles northwest of Pearl River.
These storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Zama, Renfroe, Edinburg, and Singleton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3269 8937 3287 8961 3301 8939 3296 8932
      3293 8932 3293 8929 3289 8923
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 041DEG 3KT 3290 8937

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
728 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

MSZ043-049-130130-
Rankin MS-Madison MS-
728 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RANKIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM CDT...

At 728 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Fannin, or 8 miles northeast of Brandon. These
storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Fannin, Pisgah, and Goshen Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near Ross Barnett Reservoir, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Boats could be damaged
or overturned in high winds and suddenly higher waves. Move to safe
shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3237 8974 3227 8995 3237 8992 3236 9006
      3259 9004 3260 8978 3258 8978 3254 8977
      3247 8984
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 221DEG 3KT 3238 8994

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
738 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

LAZ015-016-023-130145-
Richland LA-Madison LA-Franklin LA-
738 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL MADISON...EAST
CENTRAL RICHLAND AND NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN PARISHES THROUGH 845 PM
CDT...

At 738 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bakers, or 9 miles south of Delhi, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Crowville and Bakers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3244 9166 3241 9138 3220 9147 3220 9149
      3218 9149 3226 9170
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 287DEG 6KT 3233 9155

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SAS