Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
644 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms capable of producing tornadoes, some possibly
  strong, damaging winds and large hail, are likely this afternoon
  into tonight.

- Locally heavy rainfall and areas of flooding are likely, with
  further drought relief expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Rest of this Afternoon into Thursday...A threat for severe storms
continues across the forecast area this afternoon into tonight.
There have indeed been some adjustments to the respected threat
areas across the forecast area based upon both surface and upper air
observations through the course of the day, and the latest high-res
model data. The primary adjustments to these threat areas have been
a shift to the south for each.  This is primarily due to a steadier
southward push of the cold front and the cooler drier air associated
with it settling into northern portions of the CWA, in addition to a
good capping inversion remaining across the area. This cap will
continue to be sampled with special KJAN RAOBS through late this
afternoon and evening.  As eluded to earlier, this cap, along with
the abundance of cloud cover across the forecast area, could play a
sizeable roll in hampering both coverage and intensity of convection
across the area, along with where the best threat area for severe
weather sets up.

From now through around 6 PM, storms that develop across the CWA
will primarily have the potential of producing damaging winds to 70
mph and hail to the size of golf balls.  This will especially be the
case across areas currently residing in both the "Enhanced Risk"
(Level 3 of 5) and the "Slight Risk" (Level 2 of 5) areas.  Some
convection developing in the wake of the front, namely across the
Delta region and North Central Mississippi can't be ruled out.
There, a "Marginal Risk" for isolated severe storms exists, with a
low end threat for hail to the size of quarters and damaging wind
gusts.

As we move into late afternoon and evening hours, an area of ascent
will lift northeast across the region.  The combination of the
expected weakening cap, available instability, steep mid-level lapse
rates, and increasing overall wind shear and lengthening hodographs,
the potential for severe storms increases further. During this time
and to a greater extent, the threat for tornadoes increases across
much of the area.  This is particularly the case in both the
"Enhanced Risk" and "Slight Risk" areas, with a strong tornado
possible in and around the "Enhanced Risk" area.

In addition to the severe weather threat today, an "Elevated Threat"
for flash flooding due to heavy rainfall and training of convection
is likely given the increase in atmospheric moisture across the
region, 2-2.25 inch precipitable H2O values. This will particularly
be the case across portions of central, south, and east Mississippi.
Here, rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches, and locally higher, will be
possible in a short amount of time. Elsewhere across a good portion
of the area, a "Limited Threat" for flash flooding exists with
rainfall amounts ranging from 2-3 inches will be possible in a short
amount of time.

Currently, the potential for severe weather looks to finally wrap up
across the Pine Belt region between the hours of 1-3 AM Thursday.
Some shower activity will linger there through late morning. Clouds
will gradually break across the area from northwest to southeast
through the afternoon, with slightly cooler drier conditions
expected for Thursday into Thursday night. /19/

Friday through next Tuesday...Rain chances begin to shift southeast
into late week. Synoptic and surface features will consist of cutoff
low aloft near the International Border with frontal zone shifting
southeast into the northern Gulf. This will keep some rain chances
along the Natchez Trace through before daybreak Friday, with highest
coverage into the Pine Belt to Highway 84 to Interstate 59 corridors
but shifting northward into the Interstate 20 corridor through the
day. As shortwave trough swings into the ArLaTex into the weekend,
expect rain coverage to pick up Saturday and into Sunday (25 to 55
percent) ahead of another front.

Temperature forecast become more seasonable as return flow gradually
shifts around into the weekend (highs in upper 70s Friday to low to
mid 80s Saturday and Sunday to mid to upper 80s Sunday and lows in
upper 50s to low 60s Friday night to low to mid 60s Saturday and
Sunday night). As shortwave becomes absorbed in the developing
trough and deepening axis over the region, this will help drive
clearing front through the area and rain chances out likely by early
to midday Monday of next week. High pressure and seasonably cool
conditions will build in the wake. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Showers and storms are ongoing as a frontal boundary moves through
the region, resulting in various flight conditions across sites.
Some storms could reach severe limited this evening into the
overnight hour. Winds will start southerly and gradually shift to
the north as the period progresses.Rain/storm coverage will begin
decreasing from the northwest after 06Z Thursday Flight conditions
will remain at MVFR/IFR conditions due to low ceilings through the
rest of the period. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       61  74  56  74 / 100  10  10  40
Meridian      62  75  54  74 /  90  20   0  30
Vicksburg     58  73  56  75 /  90   0  10  40
Hattiesburg   67  78  59  73 /  80  60  20  60
Natchez       61  75  59  74 / 100  10  30  70
Greenville    55  71  54  76 /  80   0   0   0
Greenwood     56  73  52  77 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

19/SW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
904 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

LAZ026-MSZ060-070230-
Concordia LA-Adams MS-
904 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CONCORDIA PARISH IN
NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ADAMS COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM
CDT...

At 904 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Sibley, or 17 miles south of Vidalia, moving east
at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Natchez, Kingston, Sibley, and Deer Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northeastern
Louisiana...and southwestern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3147 9164 3154 9125 3137 9123 3136 9126
      3137 9127 3136 9128 3136 9131 3131 9143
      3132 9147 3129 9147 3128 9150 3126 9148
      3123 9149 3121 9153 3124 9154 3124 9156
      3121 9159 3118 9159 3118 9161
TIME...MOT...LOC 0204Z 258DEG 42KT 3132 9151

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected
National Weather Service Jackson MS
906 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     Tornado          2 N Purvis              31.17N 89.41W
05/06/2026                   Lamar              MS   Storm Chaser

            Corrects time of previous tornado report
            from 2 N Purvis and updated damage info.
            Major damage occurred to buildings along MS
            Highway 589 and Old Highway 11. An office
            building was damaged. Multiple trees were
            also uprooted in the area. A tornadic debris
            signature was observed on radar in this
            area.

&&

NF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
910 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     Tornado          2 SSE Prentiss          31.57N 89.85W
05/06/2026                   Jefferson Davis    MS   Storm Chaser

            Storm chaser reported power flashes and
            flying debris at MS Hwy 42 near Fate Ward
            Rd.

&&

DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
921 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     Tornado          3 ESE Dixie             31.19N 89.26W
05/06/2026                   Forrest            MS   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down on Patrick Rd.

&&

CE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
934 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

MSZ063>065-070315-
Lawrence MS-Jefferson Davis MS-Covington MS-
934 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN COVINGTON...
NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES THROUGH
1015 PM CDT...

At 934 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Silver Creek, or near Prentiss, moving east at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Prentiss around 940 PM CDT.
  Lone Star around 945 PM CDT.
  Clem around 950 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
and southeastern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3152 9003 3166 9006 3176 8967 3156 8962
TIME...MOT...LOC 0234Z 259DEG 24KT 3159 8996

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
942 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

MSZ061-062-070345-
Lincoln MS-Franklin MS-
942 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN LINCOLN AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM CDT...

At 942 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Meadville, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brookhaven, Meadville, Bude, Bogue Chitto, Ruth, Mccall Creek, Center
Point, Enterprise, West Lincoln, and Little Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
and southwestern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3149 9110 3161 9032 3135 9028 3135 9098
      3134 9099 3135 9102 3134 9103 3132 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 0242Z 261DEG 41KT 3140 9097

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DL